Rasmussen Reports has President Bush ahead of all likely Democratic challengers, with Sen. Hillary Clinton the strongest potential candidate. Not surprisingly, a “generic Democrat” outpolls all the actual candidates and is indeed tied with Bush 42-42.

The methodology looks sound, although the value of polling 14 months out–before the Democrats have had a chance to do much campaigning and before most voters are paying attention–is minimal.

FILED UNDER: Campaign 2004, ,
James Joyner
About James Joyner
James Joyner is Professor and Department Head of Security Studies at Marine Corps University's Command and Staff College and a nonresident senior fellow at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm vet. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.


  1. JohnC says:

    Still, exciting to watch.

  2. Steven says:


    And, it should be noted, the worthlessness cuts both ways–the Dems haven’t campaigned (and such campaign could make their numbers go both up and down) ditto Bush.

  3. James Joyner says:

    True ’nuff. Although being president is its own form of advertising. Not always in a good way, of course.

  4. Brian A. says:

    Some of us also question the value of including a non-candidate in the poll