Bush Leads in Michigan
News poll: Bush leads in Michigan (Detroit News)
President Bush has moved ahead of Democratic challenger John Kerry in Michigan, according to a Detroit News poll, but hasnÃ¢€™t reached the critical 50 percent support plateau Ã¢€” suggesting the state remains in contention as the presidential race draws to a close. In the initial installment of a poll that regularly will track voter sentiment in the final two weeks of the campaign, Bush held a 47 percent to 43 percent lead over the Massachusetts senator. The incumbent presidentÃ¢€™s lead is well within the surveyÃ¢€™s margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points. The statewide poll of 400 likely voters was taken Monday and Tuesday.
Most recent polls have shown Kerry with a narrow lead in Michigan. A Detroit News poll in June had the candidates virtually tied, with Bush at 44 percent and Kerry at 43 percent. Ã¢€œThis poll clearly demonstrates that Michigan will be very close,Ã¢€ said Steve Mitchell, an East Lansing-based pollster who conducted the survey. Ã¢€œI am surprised; a lot of other polling has shown Kerry in the lead.Ã¢€
Michigan went for Democrat Al Gore four years ago and hasnÃ¢€™t favored a Republican presidential candidate since the elder George Bush beat Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis in 1988. This state is widely seen as one of 10 battleground states across the country. The winner claims MichiganÃ¢€™s 17 electoral votes. Political experts say Kerry must take Michigan to win the election. Should Bush win a majority here, heÃ¢€™ll likely cruise to a comfortable victory.
The survey also shows state ballot Proposal 2 defining marriage as strictly between one man and one woman winning easily, with a 67 percent to 24 percent margin.
Very interesting. It’s just one poll and I’m not going to get too excited about it just yet. The blowout in Proposal 2 is a very positive sign that Bush can take the state, though.
Update (1246): For some perspective, here are the most recent polls in Michigan from RealClear Politics:
Obviously, the Mitchell poll is the outlier–but it’s also much more recent than the other polls.