BUSH’S CHANCES

Howard Fineman details nine reasons why Bush is now an odds-on favorite for re-election. The edited version:

I have never seen a president more popular with his own party base.

Because of population and geographical changes, Bush picks up a net seven Electoral College votes in a re-run of 2000

Dean has some 550,000 names on its email list. “BC04” has 10 million.

Presidents tend to win re-election in war time.

If you’re an incumbent, you have a better than 2-1 chance of winning re-election.

[We got] Saddam.

Howard Dean or not, the Democrats, for the most part, are simply cratering in the South.

The war in Iraq has only begun to divide the Democrats. It will divide them further the closer they get to the general election.

FILED UNDER: Campaign 2004
James Joyner
About James Joyner
James Joyner is Professor and Department Head of Security Studies at Marine Corps University's Command and Staff College and a nonresident senior fellow at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm vet. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.

Comments

  1. Heh. If they nominate Dean, and the majority of registered Democrats votes for Bush because of his anti-war rhetoric (preserved for posterity in campaign ads), will the party finally get the picture?

    No. I honestly don’t think they will.

  2. Paul says:

    Dean has some 550,000 names on its email list. “BC04” has 10 million.

    Yowie Batman!

  3. John Lemon says:

    Wow! Howie figured this out pretty quick, and apparently all by himself. He must be a pretty good reporter or something!

  4. John Lemon says:

    Wow! Howie figured this out pretty quick … and all by himself! He must be a real good reporter!!!

    And as for BC04, I’m not familiar with this particular name or abbreviation even though I am a congressional district captain. In just a few minutes, Howie can say “4 million + 1.”