The Polls Are Essentially Meaningless But They’re Here to Stay

They could be overstating support for Democrats. Or understating it. Or be more or less right.

Kobach Quits “We Build the Wall” Board

And a reminder about Bannon’s wall grift.

Sarah Palin, Ranked Choice Voting, and the Perils of N=1 Analysis

More details from the Alaska special election.

Democrats and Meh Voters

For the first time in a long time, Presidential approval numbers and voter preferences aren’t’ aligned.

Another Example of the Competition Narrative

Focusing just on a given election is missing the big picture.

N=1 Means, Well, Not a Lot

No one should draw conclusions about RCV from the AK special election.

Palin Loses AK Special Election

A Democrat will hold the seat until January at least.

Walker has 2-Point in Edge in GA Senate Poll

Partisanship may overcome poor candidate quality.

Quick Look at a House Seat Projection

Rs still likely to win the chamber.

Nonhierarchical Parties and the Problems of Candidate Selection

American parties are coordination problems with shared branding.

Liz Cheney Walloped in Primary

The Trumper consolidation of their control of the GOP continues.

Democrats Betting Big on Abortion

They’re spending millions on issue ads in the wake of Dobbs.

Dems in Midterms: You’re Saying There’s a Chance?

A 2020 blowout has long been presumed. But maybe it won’t happen.

Looking to the Senate Elections

It’s early, but here are some key numbers as they exist now.

Even the NY Post

The truth is pretty obvious.

Being Known by the Company you Keep

Meeting with people who are essentially couplotters should be disqualifying.

Cheney Way Behind

See is paying the price for her defense of democracy.

Dems Lose One Million Voters!

They should panic, right?

A Very Basic Threat to Democracy

From a county-level race in New Mexico.

Oz Shifts Strategy for the General

Pay no attention to the endorsement behind the candidate.

Herschel Walker and the Perils of Celebrity Candidates

More ugly revelations about the football hero turned politician.

Takeaways From the Takeaways

It’s not all about Trump.

Replacing Biden in 2024?

From the Cliché File.

An Example of Poor Messaging

Sometimes politicians definitely say the wrong thing.

An Example of Utterly Awful Elections Analysis

The NYT and CA41 and yet another example of telling the wrong story.

Trump Loses Big in Georgia, Again

Two incumbents roared to victory despite his opposition.

More Primary Examples: the PA GOP Governor’s Race

An ongoing series of observations.

On American Parties

More on primaries with a foray into Madison and the general politics of power-seekers and incentives.

Another Example of Primaries in Action

The Ohio GOP Senate contest.

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A Lament and The Reality of Politics

A illustration from the Senate race in Georgia.

Utah Democrats Back Republican Evan McMullin in Bid to Unseat Trumper Mike Lee

Seeing no way to win under their own label, they’ve called a Hail Mary.

The Flawed Nature of Representation in the US

Our representation problems are far, far more about structure than they are about the messaging of the parties.

Democrats Prepared for Impending Doom

Party leaders are treating an electoral defeat as inevitable.

Abbott’s Border Stunt

Political theater on the southern border.

Has Trump Finally Gone Too Far?

Republicans are aghast that he’s abandoned his principles.

Voters in Sour Mood Ahead of Midterms

The polls do not bode well for Democrats.

A “Fairer” Map for the 2022 House?

A potentially more representative map that still underscores deep flaws in our system.

Santa’s a Socialist

And other tales from the AK special election.

Palin Attempting Political Comeback

She is running to finish out Don Young’s term in Congress.

Prelim Data on Texas’ New Voting Rules

As predicted, rejections of ballots is up.

A Note on Primary Elections

Data from Texas underscore a frequent point about primaries.

Republicans Take Over Virginia

Elections have consequences: Old Dominion Edition

2022 is a Midterm Year

In case anyone was wondering (and the GOP’s prospects are good).

House Democrats Retiring in Droves

Twenty-three and counting will not run in 2022.

Speaking of the Poor State of American Democracy

Look no further than the Georgia GOP primary for governor.

Trump, Electoral Fraud Lies, and the Primaries

Our system and the shaping of the GOP’s future.

Goodbye to Swing Districts?

A largely mythical beast may become even more rare.

Most Politics Is National

Tip O’Neil’s famous saying hasn’t been true in a long, long time.