Clinton Leading/Edging/Trailing in Ohio by 9/4/2 Points

While polling in Texas over the past few days has shown a consistently small edge for Senator Barack Obama in tomorrow’s primaries, the polls in Ohio remain irritatingly inconsistent, thereby throwing a monkeywrench into my colleague James Joyner’s record of successful primary predictions via his “going by what the polls say” strategy.

One Ohio poll shows that Senator Hillary Clinton leads Obama in Ohio by a whopping nine points.

Clinton receives support from 51 percent of probable Ohio Democratic primary voters while Barack Obama has the support of 42 percent of the same group, according to a new Ohio Poll released Monday (.pdf). The poll, conducted between Feb. 28 and March 2, shows Clinton increasing her support in Ohio since the previous poll a week ago, which showed her leading Obama 47-39.

Today’s Quinnipiac university poll, on the other hand, shows a mere 4 point lead for Clinton, which is just outside the margin of error of 3.5 percent.

Today’s Zogby poll is the outlier here, showing that Sen. Obama has taken a slight lead of 2 points in the Ohio contest.

I think that, at this point, the odds are pretty good that Obama is going to (narrowly) take Texas in the primary (but my guess is he’ll win big in the caucusing portion of the Texas race). Ohio is anyone’s guess, as you can see above. Still, the polls seem to be more or less showing a consistent small lead for Clinton–even the Zogby poll showing an Obama lead is within the margin of error–and I suspect that she’ll win there. Still, a loss in Texas and a minor win in Ohio is hardly comforting news for the Clinton campaign. Whether they would still go on to other primaries after that is anybody’s guess.

FILED UNDER: Campaign 2008, Media, , , , , ,
Alex Knapp
About Alex Knapp
Alex Knapp is Associate Editor at Forbes for science and games. He was a longtime blogger elsewhere before joining the OTB team in June 2005 and contributed some 700 posts through January 2013. Follow him on Twitter @TheAlexKnapp.


  1. Hal says:

    Aside from whatever psychological/symbolic advantage there is to “winning” Ohio, isn’t the number of delegates won what matters in the end? So, Clinton can still “win” Ohio and still end up losing because she is still behind on delegates, right?

  2. jacksmith says:


    If you think Barack Obama with little or no experience would be better than Hillary Clinton with 35 years experience.

    You Might Be An Idiot!

    If you think that Obama with no experience can fix an economy on the verge of collapse better than Hillary Clinton. Whose 😉 husband (Bill Clinton) led the greatest economic expansion, and prosperity in American history.

    You Might Be An Idiot!

    If you think that Obama with no experience fighting for universal health care can get it for you better than Hillary Clinton. Who anticipated this current health care crisis back in 1993, and fought a pitched battle against overwhelming odds to get universal health care for all the American people.

    You Might Be An Idiot!

    If you think that Obama with no experience can manage, and get us out of two wars better than Hillary Clinton. Whose 😉 husband (Bill Clinton) went to war only when he was convinced that he absolutely had to. Then completed the mission in record time against a nuclear power. AND DID NOT LOSE THE LIFE OF A SINGLE AMERICAN SOLDIER. NOT ONE!

    You Might Be An Idiot!

    If you think that Obama with no experience saving the environment is better than Hillary Clinton. Whose 😉 husband (Bill Clinton) left office with the greatest amount of environmental cleanup, and protections in American history.

    You Might Be An Idiot!

    If you think that Obama with little or no education experience is better than Hillary Clinton. Whose 😉 husband (Bill Clinton) made higher education affordable for every American. And created higher job demand and starting salary’s than they had ever been before or since.

    You Might Be An Idiot!

    If you think that Obama with no experience will be better than Hillary Clinton who spent 8 years at the right hand of President Bill Clinton. Who is already on record as one of the greatest Presidents in American history.

    You Might Be An Idiot!

    If you think that you can change the way Washington works with pretty speeches from Obama, rather than with the experience, and political expertise of two master politicians ON YOUR SIDE like Hillary and Bill Clinton..

    You Might Be An Idiot!

    If you think all those Republicans voting for Obama in the Democratic primaries, and caucuses are doing so because they think he is a stronger Democratic candidate than Hillary Clinton. 🙂

    Best regards


  3. William d'Inger says:

    If Hillary is not totally blown away in both races, the Clintons will play the “Comeback Kid” card again (no matter how ridiculous it makes them look). This is probably the only chance she’ll ever get to grab the brass ring. They will fight to the bitter end, especially Bill who’s hoping for a what amounts to a third term in office.

  4. mike says:

    I will be registering as a Democrat tomorrow (for the first time in my life) and voting for my man Obama in TX- my reasons are very personal and petty – I can’t stand to listen to Hillary any longer – I hate turning on the TV.

  5. Shannon Bertuch says:

    Jacksmith – I see you have gone through the majority of on-line media outlets and posted your …”you might be an idiot if,” It is such a heartwarming message, I am sure that all of the hope-filled Obamiacs will really search their conscience and their self-esteem at the eye opening facts of your post. You might be a genius if … you are a writer of a newspaper and you need to keep this dance of the dems going on. You might be a genius if you have a feeling the people will stop clamoring for the news once this dance ends ….

  6. Jacksmith – what is Hillary’s actual experience? She was nearby when big things happened, but there is no evidence of her actually having done anything.

    As to economic expansion under Bill Clinton, the recession was his, too. These things go in cycles, remember? And a president’s effect starts later than his inauguration and lingers after he leaves. About 18-24 months later on both counts.

  7. floyd says:

    “”`I like the Walrus best,’ said Alice: `because he was a little sorry for the poor oysters.’

    `He ate more than the Carpenter, though,’ said Tweedledee. `You see he held his handkerchief in front, so that the Carpenter couldn’t count how many he took: contrariwise.’

    `That was mean!’ Alice said indignantly. `Then I like the Carpenter best–if he didn’t eat so many as the Walrus.’

    `But he ate as many as he could get,’ said Tweedledum.

    This was a puzzler. After a pause, Alice began, `Well! They were both very unpleasant characters!””

    Lewis Carrol
    [from “Through the Looking Glass”]

    Perhaps tommorrow night will suffice as soon enough to who won![lol]