Outside the Beltway

Cory Booker Leads Frank Lautenberg In Early New Jersey Poll

Doug Mataconis · Thursday, January 10, 2013 · 4 comments

If Newark Mayor Cory Booker ends up facing Senator Frank Lautenberg in a Democratic Primary in 2014, an early poll suggests he’d have a pretty good chance at winning:

(CNN) - Should it come down to a Democratic Senate primary next year in New Jersey between incumbent Frank Lautenberg and Newark Mayor Cory Booker, a new survey suggests at this point, Booker would have the upper hand.

A Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind poll of registered voters in the Garden State indicates that 42% of self-identified Democrats and Democratic leaners say they would prefer the two-term mayor, who’s considered a rising star in the party, as the Democratic nominee, with 20% saying they would prefer Lautenberg.

Among all voters, Booker has a 66% favorable rating, 21 points higher than the 45% who say they see Lautenberg in a favorable light.

Lautenberg, who turns 89 this month, has not decided on whether he’ll run for re-election in 2014.

Last month Booker announced that he would not challenge Republican Gov. Chris Christie in November’s gubernatorial election, and instead said he would explore a Senate bid in 2014.

According to the poll, in a possible Democratic primary showdown next year, Booker would be favored among men, women, younger and older voters, and white and non-white voters.

“These numbers suggest that some difficult days may lie ahead for the incumbent senator should he seek reelection,” said Krista Jenkins, director of PublicMind and professor of political science at Fairleigh Dickinson University. “Senator Lautenberg’s unfavorables, coupled with voter preferences for Booker as the Democratic standard bearer in the general election, complicate the landscape for this living legend amongst New Jersey politicians.”

Perhaps it’s the case that, after 30 years, Frank Lautenberg has outlived his welcome with New Jersey Democrats, especially if he’s pared against the young, popular, dynamic Mayor of Newark. If Lautenberg doesn’t run, then current speculation has Congressman Frank Pallone possible seeking the seat, but I’ve got to honestly believe that Booker would poll pretty well against him as well. It would appear that the Mayor made the correct choice in declining to run for Governor in 2013 and setting his sights on 2014 and the Senate.