Outside the Beltway

Daily Poll Roundup

James Joyner · Monday, October 25, 2004 · 3 comments

With a week of campaigning to go before the election, neither candidate has taken a significant lead.

Slate’s Election Scorecard, updated yesterday, has it Bush 271, Kerry 267 (the exact same margin as 2000 if one adds in the faithless DC elector who stiffed Gore).

Analysis Oct. 24, 2:00 p.m. ET: This weekend’s polls bring good news for Kerry. Five confirm his leads in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Oregon. One has him close in Nevada. Another has him leading in Iowa. Two others have him tied or leading in Florida. Bush’s consolation is a poll showing him up by half a point in Hawaii, of all places. We’ll need a second survey before believing that. But without Florida, Bush would have to take Ohio and New Mexico just to tie and move the election to the House. And without Florida or Ohio, even a sweep of Minnesota, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Hawaii, and Maine’s second CD wouldn’t save the president.

Update 5:20 p.m. ET: Hold on to your hats. No sooner did we demand a second tight survey in Hawaii than we got one. Both polls show Bush barely ahead with plenty of undecideds. Meanwhile, in Arkansas, Kerry has closed from a 9-point deficit to a tie. The only other conventional poll in that state showed Bush up by 3 after his convention. If Bush loses Florida, Hawaii won’t matter. But if he keeps Florida and loses Wisconsin, New Mexico and Hawaii would give him the election.

That Bush is up in Hawaii, a state that’s almost always a gimme for the Democrats, in an incredibly close election is just another indication of how bizarre this race is.

Electoral-Vote.com has it Bush 285, Kerry 247 with Ohio as “weak Bush,” Florida “leaning Bush,” and Kerry “leaning Pennsylvania.”

Most of the other Electoral College tallies have enough toss-up states that neither Bush nor Kerry has the needed 270 votes.

RealClear Politics has it Bush 234, Kerry 211. Their battleground averages have Bush up by in 0.8% Florida, by in 0.6% Ohio, and Kerry by 2% in Pennsylvania. As of Sunday, Rasmussen has it at Bush 222, Kerry 207 with Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania all in the “toss-up” category. Dale’s has it Bush 249, Kerry 228 with Florida and Ohio as toss-ups and Pennsylvania in the “slight Kerry” category (47-45). Needless to say, all three of the key states are still up for grabs, although it’s unlikely Bush will take Pennsylvania absent some major event in the news.