Dark Horse Update: Huckabee vs. Paul
I have to admit, out of all of the cool internet tricks that the campaigns have come up with this season, I think that the Paul campaign’s decision to show their fundraising in real time is probably my favorite. It’s a gutsy decision, especially since the campaign is pushing for $12 million for the fourth quarter–more than their total fundraising to date–which it will have a tough time pulling off.
Still, one interesting thing about following the website is that it truly shows the strength of Paul’s campaign versus the other Republican dark horse, Mike Huckabee. Already this quarter, the Paul campaign has raised over one million dollars–which was what Huckabee’s campaign raised the entire third quarter.
The fundraising seems to be having an impact, too. The most recent poll I could find, this Gallup poll, shows Paul running at 5%–right behind Huckabee’s 6%, and definitely Paul’s best showing yet.
Don’t get me wrong–I still think it unlikely that either Paul or Huckabee will take the nomination. But if you’re comparing strength of campaigns, Paul continues to surpass Huckabee, and I’ve no doubt that he’s probably going to hang around for a long time this season.
I have no special brief for Huckbee, but I wouldn’t be quite so quick to put him in the no hoper catagory.
Romney attracts 25% of the vote from Likely Caucus Participants, Thompson earns 19%, and Huckabee is at 18% in the poll. National frontrunner and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is the only other Republican in double digits at 13%. Arizona Senator John McCain, once considered by some to be the GOP frontrunner, gets just 6% of the vote. Kansas Senator Sam Brownback (3%), rounds out the field with Congressmen Tom Tancredo (2%), Ron Paul (2%), and Duncan Hunter (1%). Eleven percent (11%) are undecided (see crosstabs).
However, the race in Iowa is very fluid. For each of the top four candidates, between 57% and 61% of their supporters say they might change their mind before the caucus is held.
A poll 78 days before the Iowa caucus (with a majority of every candidate’s support saying they may change their mind) should not be taken as gospel for what will occur. But Romney (who has already spent a lot of money in Iowa), Fred (who just started) and Huckabee are all within the margin of error of the poll. Given the traditional boost a strong showing in Iowa can cause, I think writing off Huckabee at this point is not rationale. Likely that he gets the nomination nod? No. Realistically possible? Yes.
I don’t think Huckabee and Paul can be put in the same category. Paul is in 3rd place for cash on hand, right behind Thompson and a few million behind Giuliani. Romney, after debts owed, is behind Paul. And though Paul does not place well in national polls, he is gaining slowly point by point. He also has more straw poll wins than any other candidate and almost 60,000 grass roots supporters. Another noteworthy stat is that he received more millitary donations in Q2 and Q3 than any other candidate – a ringing endorsement of his foreign policy views – the hottest issue of the day.
Actually Ron Paul is way ahead of all the other Republican contenders except Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson who is only about 900,000 ahead of Paul. If you take the money out that McCain can only spend in the general election, he is 53,000 dollars in debt and is technically bancrupt. Romney has over 8 million in debt that his campaign has to pay back.
As far as the lower tier Republican candiates, Ron Paul has more money than all of them combined.
So when the campaign commercials start to fly only Rudy, Thompson and Paul will be seen on tv, look for Ron Paul to win New Hampshire and come in a close second in Iowa.
Mr. Huckabee uses his clergy credentials to manipulate the Christian voters while advocating very non-Christian values and principles in his assertion that he would ignore the US Constitution if he thought it was the right thing to do.
Ron Paul is the only candidate from any party who does not check his Christian values at the door as an elected representative of the people. Ron Paul’s adherence to the rule of law, rather than the rule of men makes him the most principled candidate and his Christian faith guides his every decision.
Mike Huckabee is an shallow illusion of a Christian who isn’t willing to put his own ego aside in deference to his faith. It is so sad to see the FRC attendees being sucked in by Huckabee’s tele-evangelist pandering.
Ron Paul is the epitome of a Christian conservative leader. All others pale against his untarnished record. No wonder they are all so afraid of going toe-to-toe with him.
lol, now thats funny.
And quite indisputable, if I am to take your comment as the depth of your criticism. Thanks for backing me up so succinctly. 🙂
Ron Paul’s Q4 fundraising is now almost $5.4 million with over $2.2 million coming in so far today. I believe this is only the on-line donations and does not yet count money coming in by phone and mail.
Todays average donation rate is ~$145,000 per hour based on a grass-root effort to make today, Guy Fawkes day, a day to remember here in America.
Remember, remember the 5th of November…
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