Dems Lose One Million Voters!

They should panic, right?

The AP has some startling news for the Democratic Party: More than 1 million voters switch to GOP in warning for Dems.

I mean, a million is a lot, right?

Well, it is certainly not nothing. Indeed, the piece opens thusly:

A political shift is beginning to take hold across the U.S. as tens of thousands of suburban swing voters who helped fuel the Democratic Party’s gains in recent years are becoming Republicans.

More than 1 million voters across 43 states have switched to the Republican Party over the last year, according to voter registration data analyzed by The Associated Press. The previously unreported number reflects a phenomenon that is playing out in virtually every region of the country — Democratic and Republican states along with cities and small towns — in the period since President Joe Biden replaced former President Donald Trump.

Sounds pretty doom-y!

But, the eight paragraph provides a bit more information:

But over the last year, roughly two-thirds of the 1.7 million voters who changed their party affiliation shifted to the Republican Party. In all, more than 1 million people became Republicans compared to about 630,000 who became Democrats.

So, that means that roughly net of around 440,000 voters have switched to Republican. Across 43 states.

I mean, is that good news for Democrats? No, of course, a party would rather be gaining registered voters rather than losing them, but in terms of political analysis, the headline and bulk of the story are misleading as to how dramatically (ONE MIIIIILLION!) voters are changing hands.

Indeed, the ninth paragraph starts:

The broad migration of more than 1 million voters, a small portion of the overall U.S. electorate, does not ensure widespread Republican success in the November midterm elections, which will determine control of Congress and dozens of governorships

That’s a lot less dramatic (and a lot more accurate) than the first line of the piece quoted above.

And, of course, as we have noted here many times, the president’s party historically does poorly in the mid-terms of a first term. Throw in inflation and gas prices and this is not some dramatic surprise.

But again: a net change of ~440,000 across 43 states.

(Not to mention how few seats in House races are competitive regardless of voter registration numbers).

FILED UNDER: 2022 Election, US Politics, , , , , , , ,
Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter

Comments

  1. DK says:

    So, that means that roughly net of around 440,000 voters have switched to Republican. Across 43 states.

    And at least some of those were Democrats who “switched parties” to vote for more beatable Republican primary candidates.

    Just the latest example of the media’s long tradition of putting the thumb on the scale for the right, pushing negative narratives to damage Democrats.

    The Associated Press and the two on the byline — Steve Peoples and Aaron Kessler — should be ashamed of this dishonest clickbait.

    8
  2. Kathy says:

    I often wonder how innumeracy seems to be so prevalent when I’m certain people do learn math in school.

    Well, I’m certain they are taught math in school.

  3. Grewgills says:

    How many of those voters were previously Republican and switched parties because of Trump and are now switching back because they can (inaccurately) that it is no longer the Trump party?

    3
  4. Scott F. says:

    But again: a net change of ~440,000 across 43 states.

    Sure, it’s not dramatic. But, any data point that could indicate that Americans aren’t fleeing the Republican Party in droves isn’t very encouraging to this citizen who finds openness to sedition disqualifying behavior in a democracy.

    5
  5. CSK says:

    @Scott F.:
    It’s not sedition in their eyes. The mob that invaded the Capitol was merely trying to right a grievous wrong done Donald Trump. They are the true Americans and patriots.

    So they claim.

    1
  6. Kurtz says:

    @Grewgills:

    That’s a good question.

  7. steve says:

    Would that just about equal the excess deaths Republicans had form covid and not getting vaccinated?

    Steve

  8. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @Kathy: To be even more precise, schools are offering courses in math. Teaching implies having students who are interested in acquiring skills at the subject in question.

    Ah!! There’s the rub!

    2
  9. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    And 440,000 across 43 states makes an average of 10,232 per state. Yeah. “A MILLION CHANGED PARTIES TO THE GQP” (Bennnnnghaaaaaazzzzi!!!!!) sounds a lot more serious. Round up the progs! Immediately! They’re to blame!

  10. Michael Cain says:

    So 440,000 voters across 43 states is close to 10,000 voters per state. The avg for House districts per state is 8.7, so 1150 votes per district. How many House races were settled by less than 2500 votes? In the seven districts in my state last time, there weren’t any within 25,000 votes.

    To borrow from our good hosts here, national numbers are largely meaningless. The House and Senate majorities for 2023, and the President for 2025, will be determined in a stupidly small number of districts and states.

  11. DK says:

    @Scott F.:

    But, any data point that could indicate that Americans aren’t fleeing the Republican Party in droves isn’t very encouraging to this citizen who finds openness to sedition disqualifying behavior in a democracy.

    The patriots already left the GQP between 2015 and Jan 6, 2021.

    2
  12. Gustopher says:

    @DK:

    And at least some of those were Democrats who “switched parties” to vote for more beatable Republican primary candidates.

    I think that accounts for about a dozen of them.

    Also, we really should stop trying to get the most insane possible Republican to win the nomination, because there’s a very good chance they will win the general.

    3
  13. Jen says:

    @Gustopher: Agreed. People need to be careful with that type of gaming.

    I live in NH, where you can register as unaffiliated and then “declare” a party when you vote in a primary. If you’re unaffiliated, you can vote in either one–you just need to remember to unaffiliate yourself after you vote but before you leave the polling place. It’s pretty common here to vote in either primary (I’ve probably voted in as many Republican primaries as Democratic ones).

  14. @Gustopher:

    Also, we really should stop trying to get the most insane possible Republican to win the nomination, because there’s a very good chance they will win the general.

    Indeed. I normally vote Republican in our open primary (you pick the day of the election) and I do so because I know that the primary is almost always the key election and so I would prefer to vote for the more sane option (if possible).

  15. bmelt says:

    Given the narrative on the right of stolen elections, assumptions that the Dems will lose big, and pieces like this, what happens if the Dems actually over perform this fall? Just as Trump primed the pump for the election shenanigans narrative, it feels like we are setting ourselves up for for 1/6 all over again if Dems somehow pull out some unexpected wins.

  16. IdaHokie says:

    @Steven L. Taylor: Same. I live in Idaho and registered Republican last year to vote in this year’s GOP closed primary. The GOP is going to win over 80% of races in Idaho although not here in Boise. Still, Idaho Democrats are not even running enough candidates for the Idaho Legislature to take away the GOP’s supermajority…much less to take control of the Legislature. So…I reluctantly must vote for the best GOP candidates in their primary. The Dem primary here is an open primary, but most of them ran unopposed and are either going to win overwhelmingly (in most of Boise) or lose massively with maybe 1-5 close races in the entire state.