Doug Jones’ Challenge
Jones’s campaign believes he can win only if he pieces together an unusually delicate coalition built on intense support from core Democrats and some crossover votes from Republicans disgusted with Moore. Crucial to that formula is a massive mobilization of African Americans, who make up about a quarter of Alabama’s electorate and tend to vote heavily Democratic.
The basic issue, as is generally that case and is especially true of special elections) is turnout.
The article itself outlines the basic problem, although despite the definitive headline, the piece itself is based largely on anecdotal evidence.