DUNNIGAN’S ROUNDUP

Today’s Iraq news from StrategyPage:

Five men were arrested as suspects in the December 27th attacks in Karbala. Their nationality was not given, but Shia leaders say they believe the attacks were carried out by Sunni Arabs and al Qaeda foreigners. There has been little, or no, political violence in the Shia areas since Saddam’s government fell. The Shia are not intimidated by the Sunnis any more, and the attacks of the 27th just made more Shias determined to meet violence with violence if the Sunnis continue to use violence against other Iraqis.

In the north, police arrested two Egyptians, an Iranian and an Afghan on suspicion of being members of Ansar al-Islam. This organization is affiliated with al Qaeda, and was founded by Kurds who had become Islamic radicals. Islamic radicalism is rare among Kurds, but Islamic conservatives in Iran offered bases and other support to get Ansar al-Islam started. After al Qaeda was driven out of Afghanistan in late 2001, many al Qaeda members fled to Iran and some ended up with Ansar in northern Iraq. A Kurd attack on Ansar camps a year a go drove many Ansar members back into Iran. But now Ansar members are sneaking back into northern Iraq. The four men arrested has false documents and were apparently planning terrorist attacks in the northern city of Kirkuk.

Sunni Arab tribal and religious leaders have formed a reconciliation committee in Tikrit to urge Sunnis to stop armed resistance against the coalition and the new government. The tribal leaders realize that the Sunni Arabs will be a minority in any democratically elected government and will not have control of the army or police (as Sunnis have for centuries.) As a result, Sunni Arabs would suffer greatly as Sunni and Kurd dominated police fought the Sunni resistance. In such a low level civil war, the Sunnis would be at a major disadvantage, would suffer the most and could not win. US Army Special Forces have been working with the Sunni tribal chiefs for over a year, and that has finally paid off.

FILED UNDER: Afghanistan War, Iraq War
James Joyner
About James Joyner
James Joyner is Professor and Department Head of Security Studies at Marine Corps University's Command and Staff College and a nonresident senior fellow at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm vet. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.