Election 2021 Context, Part 1: New Jersey

Providing a little bit of electoral history.

Based on Twitter and Memeorandum, plus fleeting exposure to cables news and numerous podcasts, it would seem that many pundits are in Overreaction OverdriveTM as to the deep (oh so very, very deep) meaning of the handful of elections that took place in the weird slot between presidential and mid-term elections (more on that at some point, I expect).

I do not have some deep interpretation of these outcomes at moment (and may never), although let me note that the Dems were likely to lose control of Congress in the mid-term independently of what happened last night (I say that because I have heard reporters, including on NPR this morning, making it sound like there is some causative linkage). In other words, the Dems were in trouble in 2022 regardless of who won in Virginia.

What I would like to suggest is that we at least look at recent electoral trends in these cases as rather important context for Overreaction OverdriveTM.

So while as of this writing the NJ Governor’s race is not yet settled, may I please provide historical context for NJ gubernatorial elections going back to 1997:

Sources: Ballotpedia and 270toWin

So while New Jersey has reliably voted Democratic for president of late (indeed, since 1992) they have actually split the governor’s office 50-50 since 1997 between the parties. As such, the notion that a Republican could win the New Jersey governor’s office is not the cray repudiation of Dems that at least some Overreactors seem to think.

Just a little context.

Should the Republican (Ciattarelli) pull out the win, don’t believe anyone who tells you they know exactly why unless they come with a boatload of data (really, the same can be said about anyone who tells you they know exactly why Youngkin won in VA).

FILED UNDER: Campaign 2021, US Politics
Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter

Comments

  1. PT says:

    Maybe even over-overreaction overdrive. Somebody call the my pillow guy to verify the election results.

    2
  2. Kathy says:

    Thinking about the prospects for 2022 and 2024, for some reason what comes to mind is the definition of Manicheism by Ambrose Bierce in The Devil’s Dictionary:

    The ancient Persian doctrine of an incessant warfare between Good and Evil. When Good gave up the fight, the Persians joined the victorious Opposition.

  3. Dude Kembro says:

    – “Republicans are book banning communists.”
    – “Republicans hate teachers.”
    – “Republicans are fascists destroying America with sore loser election lies.”
    – “Republicans are running on radical Defund the Schools anti-teacher extremism.”
    – “Republicans want to enslave women with forced birth.”

    When will Dems get blunt and tough on messaging and stop the kumbaya bs? Why won’t Dems accept that the right wing propaganda fearmongering lie machine can’t be defeated with nuance?

    And why won’t Biden cancel student debt, which he can with a pen stroke, no Manchin-Sinema required. Wondering why youth voters aren’t fired up, that’s why. Democrats have to take ACTION *now* to improve lives. #CancelStudentDebt

    4
  4. EddieInCA says:

    @Dude Kembro:

    And why won’t Biden cancel student debt, which he can with a pen stroke, no Manchin-Sinema required. Wondering why youth voters aren’t fired up, that’s why. Democrats have to take ACTION *now* to improve lives. #CancelStudentDebt

    Because it’s idiotic and wrong. You’ll lose the votes of all those who played by the rules.

    Idiotic.

    I’m not saying you’re an idiot. I’m saying the idea of canceling student debt is idiotic. Why not auto loans? Why not mortgages? Why not payday loans? Seriously. Why not?

    10
  5. Moosebreath says:

    AP calls it for Murphy.

    Your chart can go further back that you drew it, as Whitman also won in 1993. Prior to Murphy, the last 3 governors to be re-elected were all Republicans (Christie, Whitman and Tom Kean, who won in 1981 and 1985).

    2
  6. Dude Kembro says:

    @EddieInCA: And that’s why youth voters didn’t vote last night.

    Why not? One, because most of those loans are not federally subsidized. Two, because that would thus be way more costly, exponentially so. And three, because that would be poorly means-tested, going primarily to those who already have wealth, rather than to younger people of color damaged by the fiscal irresponsibility of older generations.

    I don’t recall this kind of angry hostility when Boomers were giving billions to big banks, rich megachurches, corporations, and farmers. Nor when they’re robbing the Social Security trust of their kids and grandkids to pay for the self-inflicted insolvency of their own. But for some reason, it’s only idiotic when someone besides rich old folks get bailouts.

    Republicans gave billions to farmers hurt by Trump’s anti-capitalist trade war. Was it idiotic? Why not retail workers? Why not teachers? Seriously, why not?

    Because now look at Republican vote margins in rural, agricultural America. Rural farmers actually got something from voting Trump. I think it’s idiotic for Democrats to keep losing elections by being hostile to its base. Republicans do for their base. We call ours idiots.

    This is why we lose and will keep losing.

    8
  7. Kurtz says:

    @EddieInCA:

    The questions you raise are tangential to the question of education. See: Madison and Jefferson on public schooling.

    It’s reasonable to ask those questions. But, for me, the reasonability of those questions speaks to deeper issuess within American political economy.

    It’s tempting to point solely at Republicans and Third Way Dems hitching the country to a slow train. But that’s a too simple answer that to a question that’s too narrow.

    Look at one of your examples: car loans. There are ~300 cities with over 100k residents. Yet, the vast majority of them have terrible public transportation options. There are many reasons for this. But one of them is illustrated by Halberstam’s decision to pay considerable attention to Levittown in The Fifties.* It’s tough to undo expansion patterns established when boomers were still being conceived.

    Considering that, the three traditional basic needs have been joined by a fourth. But hell, we have failed providing affordable housing, food, education anyway, so…

    *NYT published an excerpt when Levitt died. I recall the book spending more time on it, but I could be wrong.

    3
  8. Dude Kembro says:

    Not to mention Republicans didn’t lose a single vote from their bailouts of farmers and and churches. Republican truckers and oil workers didn’t say, “I played by the rules, where’s my money?” Republican gun dealers and coal miners didn’t say, “Why not me?”

    They knew were they were getting: juiced rural and evangelical turnout to elect Republicans to put in place policies they want.

    Yet here Democrats are, doing next to nothing for those who elected them, ready to let “idiotic” youth voters sit out elections by playing some infantile zero sum jealousy game over canceling student debt. While fascism takes over.

    My party just doesn’t get it. We want to lose. And that’s why we lose.

    4
  9. EddieInCA says:

    @Dude Kembro:

    Why not? One, because most of those loans are not federally subsidized.

    Most. Many are unsubsidized. Why does being federal subsidized make it more favorable for forgiveness? Arbitrary point #1

    Two, because that would thus be way more costly, exponentially so.

    And? Arbitrary point #2

    And three, because that would be poorly means-tested, going primarily to those who already have wealth, rather than to younger people of color damaged by the fiscal irresponsibility of older generations.

    54% of all student loan debt is held by White and Caucasian student borrowers.
    White and Caucasian students have the most cumulative student loan debt.
    https://educationdata.org/student-loan-debt-by-race
    Arbitrary point #3 (and wrong).

    I don’t recall this kind of angry hostility when Boomers were giving billions to big banks, rich megachurches, corporations, and farmers.

    Right. So you missed Occupy Wall Street. You’re conflating four issues that are all separate.

    Bailouts. When Obama took office, he refused to have his DOJ prosecute the people responsible? His is that anything other than a Dem failure? How do you blame the GOP for something Obama didn’t do?

    Rich megachurches. Change the tax code. But you have to win elections to do that. American’s still go to church. Alot. Not nearly as much as in previous years, but still alot. People in cities for get this. Just because you might not know many doesn’t mean they’re not there.

    Corporations. Again. Fix the tax code. But you have to win elections and then do it. The 11th Congress (2009-2011) was completely controlled by Democrats. Obama was president. They did NOTHING to further tax corporations. Why? Because it was a political loser.

    Farmers. Again. A constituency that has power. Gotta win elections in those areas if you want to change things. But you’re taking a city mentality to rural issues.

    Nor when they’re robbing the Social Security trust of their kids and grandkids to pay for the self-inflicted insolvency of their own. But for some reason, it’s only idiotic when someone besides rich old folks get bailouts.

    Bailout. I don’t think that word means what you think it does. Here. Let me help you.
    A bailout is when a business, an individual, or a government provides money and/or resources (also known as a capital injection) to a failing company. These actions help to prevent the consequences of that business’s potential downfall which may include bankruptcy and default on its financial obligations. Businesses and governments may receive a bailout which may take the form of a loan, the purchasing of bonds, stocks or cash infusions, and may require the recused party to reimburse the support, depending upon the terms.

    What you’re proposing isn’t in any way a bailout. It’s a free giveaway to people who made a choice that they now regret and want to change the rules of the game after the fact. No. Again. Idiotic.

    Republicans gave billions to farmers hurt by Trump’s anti-capitalist trade war. Was it idiotic? Why not retail workers? Why not teachers? Seriously, why not?

    I guess you missed the PPP Loans and the per person stimulus checks sent over the past 18 months. Or, probably, you’re choosing to ignore it since it doesn’t fit into your narrative. Teachers and Retail Workers were included in those. Again, I ask, when Dems were in control, why didn’t they do what you suggest?

    Because now look at Republican vote margins in rural, agricultural America. Rural farmers actually got something from voting Trump.

    If you think that rural voters voted for Trump because of of payments to them, you’re going to keep losing rural counties and areas. In some states, if you lose the rural votes, you lose the state. It’s that simple. You’re ignoring the fact that blue state Democrats are making too many issues litmus tests that the rest of the country doesn’t care about. Jon Tester is a solid Democratic Senator in a deep red state. You’d rather lose with a guy like Tester rather than understand that his constituents are very different than those of Dianne Feinstein, and a Jon Tester is the most you’re going to get out or a Democratic Senator from Montana – a state Trump won by 17 points. Math man. Math.

    I think it’s idiotic for Democrats to keep losing elections by being hostile to its base. Republicans do for their base. We call ours idiots.

    Less than 1 year ago, Dems won the Presidency, and two, TWO Georgia Senate Seats. I think it’s idiotic to live in a bubble and ignore the reality on the ground, no matter how much you wish it was different.

    This is why we lose and will keep losing.

    2
  10. EddieInCA says:
  11. de stijl says:

    I am shocked! Utterly shocked!

    The offseason election went against the party that won the last one. It is unprecedented!

    This is new normal. I don’t want to say “yawn” because the situation always is changing, but the off-year “comeback” of the lost-the-last election dynamic is almost baked in at this point. For now.

    Off year elections always favor the folks who lost last. This is not new news. Look at 2018. At 2010. This is normal and expected.

    As an an electorate, we are resentful and petty. We want a perfect solution, which is very naive. We gyrate wildly.

  12. Dude Kembro says:

    @EddieInCA:

    Less than 1 year ago, Dems won the Presidency, and two, TWO Georgia Senate Seats.

    Because of the record youth turnout you sneering, condescending Boomer Dems (who think any point you have no rational response to is arbitrary) are determined to depress by opposing student debt cancellation. Idiotic.

    3
  13. Dude Kembro says:

    And? Arbitrary point #2

    Cost is not arbitrary. You simply have no response for that, although surprised you couldn’t come up with more nasty, mean, condescenion and bullying demonstrating the white male arrogance and ugliness that is turning more and more otherwise sympathetic youth and black voters away from the Democratic Party. Gross.

    1
  14. EddieInCA says:

    Dude –

    I missed the part where Biden and the two senators who won in Georgia made cancelling student debt part of their pitch or agenda. No. It was Bernie pushing that. And he lost.

    Show me where they did that and you might, MIGHT, a point.

    But otherwise, you’re ignoring the real world. Bernie lost. The progressive candidates lost in NYC and pretty much everywhere else they’ve run against mainstream Dems. The rest of the country isn’t where you are. That’s the fact, sadly.

    3
  15. Dude Kembro says:

    @EddieInCA:

    54% of all student loan debt is held by White and Caucasian student borrowers.
    White and Caucasian students have the most cumulative student loan debt.

    Duh, Boomer #2: White people are the majority of the country, so of course they have the most student debt. Talk about idiotic, did you really just try to pass of that as some sort of gotcha? Boy bye!

    Student loan debt has a much, much, much higher impact on borrowers of color for a whole host of reasons. Put simply, when structural race bias in systems (hello CRT) results in worse job prospects, worse wage prospects, and worse long term wealth prospects we can expect borrowers of color to be more negatively impacted by student debt.

    Anyone who thinks as highly of himself as you do should’ve been able to piece that together on your own. But perhaps you can step outside or your selfish, clueless, arrogant, mean, condescending privileged bubble of zero sum jealousy to read a little about that here: https://www.brookings.edu/research/student-loans-the-racial-wealth-divide-and-why-we-need-full-student-debt-cancellation/

    I won’t hold my breath tho.

    3
  16. EddieInCA says:

    @Dude Kembro:

    Cost is not arbitrary.

    No. Cost is not arbitrary. But your listing it as a reason is arbitrary. If it’s so important, then cost shouldn’t be an issue. You’ve decided, arbitrarily, that cost is a reason against cancelling other loans. Why is cost a good reason? Facts: Student loans account for 11% of the total debt in this country. Auto loans are only 5% and Credit cards are only 9%. If I wanted to win elections by buying people off, I’d pay off every one’s credit card debt and car loans. That would be only 3% more than the student loan total. Again, if the goal is to win elections, why wouldn’t we pay off everyone credit cards and auto loans. Cost? Nope. Try again.

    You simply have no response for that, although surprised you couldn’t come up with more nasty, mean, condescenion and bullying demonstrating the white male arrogance and ugliness that is turning more and more otherwise sympathetic youth and black voters away from the Democratic Party. Gross.

    I gave the response above, which, again, shows you have a problem with math. But, more importantly, be careful what you assume. If you read a bit better, or did a bit of research, or just asked a few people here, you’d know I’m Dominican. Half my family is black. Spanish was my first language despite being born in Los Angeles, thanks to being raised by a NYC grandmother who didn’t speak a lick of English until she died at the age of 84. I didn’t speak English until I started kindergarden at P.S. 143 in Queens, NY. I’m just this side of a socialist, but a pragmatic one who wants wins, not purity.

    I’m pretty far from a white man, so please, please, take this as a learning experience, learn some more, and come back when you have some hair on your testicles and your voice deepens. I’ll be available then if you still want a lesson.

    5
  17. Dude Kembro says:

    @EddieInCA: @EddieInCA: I’m not going to show you jack, I don’t like your ugly attitude and I’m not your unpaid research assistant. Get over yourself.

    As a matter of fact, Warnock and Ossoff are both where I am on student debt.

    https://www.ossoff.senate.gov/press-releases/sen-jon-ossoff-colleagues-call-on-president-biden-to-broadly-cancel-student-loan-debt-2/

    https://flagpole.com/featured/2021/05/03/warnock-forgiving-student-debt-is-a-top-priority/
    They’re not where you are on this subject. Whoops, how embarasssing for you.

    Youth voters are where I am on this subject. They’re not where you and 80+ year old Biden are. That’s why Biden’s approval rating is headed to Trump level and Democrats got their asses handed to them last night. Because Boomer Dems think crapping on the voters who put them in power is good strategy. Good luck with that.

    1
  18. EddieInCA says:

    @Dude Kembro:

    Ooooh…. they wrote strongly worded letters. That will get it done.

    Ossoff and Warnock have every opportunity to present a bill to cancel student debt. Why haven’t they? See, that’s how it works in the real world. Senators write a bill, try to get people to support it, try to get the house on board, then get it to the President to sign it.

    Head to your local JC and take a government class. It might help your fantasies.

    2
  19. Dude Kembro says:

    @EddieInCA: Go to hell.

  20. Dude Kembro says:

    @EddieInCA:

    Ooooh…. they wrote strongly worded letters.

    Translation: I have to resort to sarca like the immature, ignorant, narcissistic loser I am, because I was blatantly wrong about Warnock and Ossof’s position on student debt cancellation. Narcissists can never deal with being wrong.

    I’m pretty far from a white man, so please, please, take this as a learning experience, learn some more, and come back when you have some hair on your testicles and your voice deepens. I’ll be available then if you still want a lesson.

    But Exhibit A that one need not be white to be an agent of white supremacy. I’ll come to you when I want lessons on venal, bitter amorality, but you can get back to me after you find a therapist to help you with your narcissistic personality disorder. I have an advanced degree in clinical psychology, lemme know if you need a wreck.

    When Obama took office, he refused to have his DOJ prosecute the people responsible? His is that anything other than a Dem failure? How do you blame the GOP for something Obama didn’t do?

    Obama didn’t give trillions in money to farmers and megachurches. But leave it to resident agent of white supremacy to blame the nearest black man for what Trump and McConnell did. I guess you are a brocialist, they do that too.

  21. Dude Kembro says:

    @EddieInCA:

    Why is cost a good reason? Facts: Student loans account for 11% of the total debt in this country. Auto loans are only 5% and Credit cards are only 9%.

    Massively stupid point. Since, again, we’re only talking about forgiving a fraction of student loan debt, not all of it: the debt has to be *federally* subsidized to be forgivable, and even then, we’re not talking about forgiving all of it.

    So no, the low cost of forgiving student debt isn’t arbitrary, no matter how much you tantrum and cry in your desperate, narcissistic attempt to be right when you’re just not.

    She’s not always right, but I’ll go with Consumer Protection Bureau founder Elizabeth Warren on this particular consumer issue. Not EddieInEgo.

  22. EddieInCA says:

    @Dude Kembro:

    Dude – Now you’re just embarrassing yourself. And you’re illustrating my points perfectly. YOU, and people like YOU, are why Democrats will lose certain races. You can’t see past your own ideology to see that others might see the world differently. You can’t see that a Wyoming Democrat is different than a NYC Democrat, yet both would vote for a Majority Leader Schumer. You can’t see that a Dem Governor of Louisiana or a Dem Senator from Montana is a good thing, because they might be pro-guns. You can’t see that a Dem Senator from Pennsylvania is a good thing, even if he’s anti-choice. You can’t see that people like AOC are great for raising money…. for the GOP.

    You’re more interested in purity than winning. I’d rather win.

    10
  23. Dude Kembro says:

    @EddieInCA:

    Rich megachurches. Change the tax code.

    The tax code has nothing to do with Trump, McConnell and Mnuchin creating a coronavirus slush fund to bribe churches. Stupid response.

  24. EddieInCA says:

    @Dude Kembro:

    James Carville Shreds ‘Stupid Wokeness’ After Election Losses: ‘These People Need to Go to a Woke Detox Center’
    By Michael LucianoNov 3rd, 2021, 11:21 pm
    72 comments
    submit to reddit

    Democratic strategist James Carville appeared on PBS NewsHour and blamed “stupid wokeness” for Democrats’ electoral struggles on the previous night. Republicans in Virginia regained the posts of governor (Glenn Youngkin), lieutenant governor (Winsome Sears), and attorney general (Jason Miyares). They also appear poised to retake the House of Delegates.

    Elsewhere, Republicans gained seats in the New Jersey state legislature, and nearly pulled off an upset against Gov. Phil Murphy, who ultimately prevailed. Meanwhile in Seattle, candidates who support the defund the police movement fared poorly.

    “What went wrong?” Newshour host Judy Woodruff asked Carville.

    “What went wrong was this stupid wokeness,” said Carville. “Don’t just look at Virginia and New Jersey. Look at Long Island, look at Buffalo, look at Minneapolis, even look at Seattle, Washington. I mean, this defund the police lunacy, this ‘take Abraham Lincoln’s name off schools, people see that.”

    Carville said the woke left has had a “suppressive effect” for Democrats in races across the country.

    “Some of these people need to go to a woke detox center or something,” he continued. “They’re expressing language people just don’t use and there’s a backlash and a frustration at that. Suburbanites in northern Virginia [and] New Jersey, you know, pulled away a little bit. Youngkin never ran any ads against Biden.”

    He said Youngkin “just let the Democrats pull the pin and watch the grenade go off on them. And we’ve got to change this and not be about changing dictionaries, and change laws. And these faculty lounge people that sit around mulling about I don’t know what, they’re not working. Look what happened in Buffalo, again, Seattle, I think the Republicans may have won a city attorney’s race in Seattle, the autonomous zone. Who could even think of something that stupid?”

    “I’ve got news for you,” he said, addressing certain activist Democrats. “You’re hurting the party. You’re hurting the very people you want to help. Terry got caught up – he’s a good friend of mine, he’s a good guy, you know, he got caught up – in something national, and we’ve got to change this internally, in my view.”

    6
  25. Dude Kembro says:

    @EddieInCA:

    I’d rather win.

    Nah, you’d rather youth voters continue to sit out elections so what happened last night keeps happening.

    YOU are why Democrats lose elections. The pretense that Democrats can keep not taking action on issues important to its base and win is just plain stupid. We’re already doing that and it’s NOT working.

    You are just too arrogant and narcissistic to admit youth and black voters in Georgia just elected two senators who agree with me on student debt cancellation, not YOU.

    Sad but not the end of the world. Because Warnock and Ossoff know who elected them and why. That’s why none of your frothing-at-the-mouth Boomerspeak is ever going to get them to agree with you on this. #CancelStudentDebt

    1
  26. Dude Kembro says:

    @EddieInCA: As an avowed Hillary-lover let me just say, Carville needs to be put out to pasture along with the rest of the Clinton-era Dems.

    Mad respect to Carville et al for stopping the Reagan-era bleeding back then, but this is not the 90s. See McAuliffe, Terry. Pains me to say it.

    Love Hillary tho. Forever.

    1
  27. Dude Kembro says:

    P.S. I know among the agents of white supremacy “woke” — a word stolen from black youth culture — is now a catch-all slur/scapegoat for anything that doesn’t center what straight white men and only straight white men find important, but cancelling student debt is obviously not a “woke” (eyes rolling) issue.

    It’s a bread and butter populist economy issue that will have tangible and immediate effects in improving the financial position of the less wealthy and less privileged.

    That’s why the establishment is so opposed.

    1
  28. Kurtz says:

    @Dude Kembro: @EddieInCA:

    @Dude, there is an easier, less divisive way to make your point that also happens to be the most accurate description of reality.

    Burdens carried by the working class affect all races, but those with more melanin carry disproportionately heavier loads.

    The most elegant expression is the Baldwin quote that must be stickier for me than it is for other voting lefties:

    Anyone who has ever struggled with poverty knows how extremely expensive it is to be poor.

    That isn’t an attempt to justify colorblindness. Rather, it’s an attempt to craft a message that doesn’t gain a vote at the expense of another, the latter of whom is likely to be somewhat of a fuckhead. Very few politicians have the combination of qualities required to do this without being as generic as a Taylor Swift song–the best of them aren’t bad, but they aren’t pushing us into a new era.*

    @Eddie

    Tensions escalate and nerves get more raw the closer to a border one moves. This is true in geopolitics and the floating borders between ideologies.

    And in both areas, it seems that the loudest vitriol gets spewed from a performative distance. (One example is the most entrenched, violent anti-immigrant views are often found in areas with relatively few immigrants.)

    In part because of interactions here with you and a few others, as well as living among various orientations of righties, I’ve found ways to reach across the border. So thanks.

    Your student loan link kind of makes the point for both sides. And your definition of bailout kind of applies to both classes of recipient.

    I’m sure plenty of banks regretted their reliance on insurance backed bundled mortgages. I’m sure GM regretted its poor decision-making.

    But that’s the issue, right? GM and Bear Stearns aren’t capable of regret. Anthropomorphic legal instruments have a way of raiding the vault without having to deal with physical security.

    Meanwhile, the people remunerated for heavy responsibility dealt with some public shaming and went home with Memphis Bleek, if not Jay-Z, money while regretful students deal with restricted access to the economy.

    *It occurs to me that this analogy works pretty well in other ways. Nirvana was an important band like JFK was in important president. The quality of the product was less important than the spirit it captured; immortalized by the vessel’s tragic end and the glow magnified by the ghouls that followed shortly. Nixon and Reagan; Creed and Nickelback. Somehow, that seems totally unfair to…Nixon.

    4
  29. Michael Reynolds says:

    @Dude Kembro:
    If you don’t cancel my student debt I’ll have no choice but to stay home on election day thus ensuring that there is not only zero chance of debt relief but zero chance of advancing any part of the progressive agenda. That’ll show those damn boomers! You know, the people who’ll all be dead soon, leaving you with many decades in a world defined by your own petulance and political malpractice. Has it occurred to you yet that you are the generation that will soon be denounced by the next for failing? Just tell them how all that mattered was canceling student debt and you got so sad you had to turn the country over to fascists. Show them how you stamped your foot in righteous indignation. I’m sure they’ll be impressed.

    13
  30. de stijl says:

    @EddieInCA:
    @Dude Kembro:

    Infighting does not accomplish much.

    There is an external enemy. Fight that first.

    Don’t be *that* asshole.

    1
  31. Dude Kembro says:

    @Michael Reynolds: Blame-shifting is not going to fly here. The people ensuring student debt is not canceled are…those refusing to cancel student debt and refusing to support canceling student debt.

    The elders are the ones, sadly, giving still finding excuses to give majority of their votes to fascism, the kids are not doing that. The elders are the ones who should sit in a circle, talk amongst themselves, and hold one another accountable for the problems they’ve created with selfish, irresponsible, short-sighted voting choices: not lifting a finger on climate, bankrupting the nation with unfunded wars while cutting taxes for themselves, voting in bigoted fossils like McConnell and Trump, and being the first American generation to leave their children and grandchildren worse off financially.

    No, traditionally-Republican demographics and suburban Karens are not the only ones who get to make demands or expect a return for their votes. Not anymore.

    2
  32. Dude Kembro says:

    @EddieInCA:

    You’re ignoring the fact that blue state Democrats are making too many issues litmus tests that the rest of the country doesn’t care about.

    No, you, like Maher, Carville, and the rest of the un-woke, have bought into the propagandistic lies that right wing hatemongers are telling about “blue state Democrats,” using a handful of overzealous Twitter activists to demonize and misrepresent millions of very good people. I expect that kind of dishonest bull from Tucker Carlson and Charlie Kirk. From allies who should know better, it’s just effing pathetic.

    What “blue state Democrats” are actually doing is sending their tax dollars to subsidize poor red states while advocating for (popular, btw) federal investments in healthcare, education, infrastructure, childcare, paid leave, and mass transit.

    Maybe y’all might try boosting Democratic turnout by talking up that reality, instead of smearing your own party with scaremongering nonsense straight off the Fox News ticker.

    3
  33. David Kelsey says:

    @EddieInCA:

    Perfect example.

    Not helpful

    Would it were that we could be as opposed to white supremacy as we are to black women telling the truth about white supremacy. Then they might feel supported and show up as enthusiastically for Democrats as bigots now do for Republicans.

    Trump: *lies about immigrants and people of color*
    His allies: “He tells it like it is!”

    Black woman: *tells the truth about outsized white comfort with white supremacy in a state where tiki torch Nazis marched in defense of monuments to pro-slavery Confederate traitors*
    Her allies: “Not helpful, shut your woke ass up lady.”

    I can’t imagine why black and youth voter share fell in Virginia. /end sarc

    4
  34. JohnSF says:

    A possible trans-Atlantic parallel.

    In Britain, the Labour Party has had episodes of activist ascendancy, (Bennites, Militants, Corbynites) who have enthusiatically proclaimed that their policies are both impeccably right-on and will bring forth a surge of votes from the enthused party base, from the previously apathetic and disaffected youth, from a coalition of the disadvantaged.
    (See also, the Socialist party in France post 2017)

    Problem: the apathetic continue to refuse to get out of bed, and the broadly “centrist” or “moderate” winnable voters react badly to being hectored by spotty student marxists, are repelled by cultural radicalism and social utopianism, are not very liberal on crime, and are more than a little sceptical about the impact “and an f*’in pony!” spending plans on taxes, interest rates etc.

    In short: it does not end well.
    Learn, guys.

    2
  35. Lounsbury says:

    @Dude Kembro: Cancelling student debt may be your hobby horse but it does not look in any way like a general winner, as Andy rather usefully noted in the other posting.

    Never mind that the issue of the student debt by the numbers rather looks like a misframing (and rather a benefit to a certain class to no real benefit to the culturally working class white the Democrats have lost).

    Not that statistics or analysis shall change any minds.

    @JohnSF: Indeed yes, the various non-USA land examples in higher-income countries all generally convey a rather similar broad message, which corresponds to this

    Problem: the apathetic continue to refuse to get out of bed, and the broadly “centrist” or “moderate” winnable voters react badly to being hectored by spotty student marxists, are repelled by cultural radicalism and social utopianism, are not very liberal on crime, and are more than a little sceptical about the impact “and an f*’in pony!” spending plans on taxes, interest rates etc.

    While the Left commentariat will nit-pick and quibble semantically (such as student marxists) the cultural radicalism and social hectoring obviously is applicable.

    Equally obvious, the Lefties will not take the lesson.

    Were it not for Trump this should be quite a source of entertainment, but I begin to seriously worry the orange creature actually may have a real shot.

    1
  36. @de stijl:

    This is new normal.

    Actually, it is the old normal (or, I guess, just the normal).

    3
  37. de stijl says:

    @Steven L. Taylor:

    “This is normal” works for me.

  38. de stijl says:

    @Steven L. Taylor:

    Infighting is also normal. At least for the Ds.

    It is a coalition.

  39. Barry says:

    Can we PLEASE get a block option?

  40. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @Barry: You have one (at least I do). When you see a post that will be a waste of time, press Page Down on your keyboard and it goes away. [Thumbs up emoji] I did that a lot when I came back to this post–only stopping to read your comment, in fact.

    2
  41. All I can say about the side-debate above is this: the reality is that whatever issue or basket of issues one thinks is the key to a flood of support, one is probably wrong (especially in a single election).

    3
  42. Michael Reynolds says:

    @Dude Kembro:

    No, traditionally-Republican demographics and suburban Karens are not the only ones who get to make demands or expect a return for their votes. Not anymore.

    Oh, I’m sorry, were you somehow prohibited from making demands? Because I was pretty sure you had demands, what you did not have is support, votes. Because you failed to convince anyone. You failed to convince anyone because you didn’t really try, you just stamped your little foot and demanded. But still Santa didn’t give you a pony! Oh no!

    Blame-shifting? The assumption being that you could never be to blame. No! Not you! It’s always the other. Exactly the way Republicans think. It couldn’t be your fault, after all you’re young and therefore obviously righteous.

    Listen up, child. On the list of shit we’re struggling to do, number #1 is climate change. On a 1-10 scale, climate change is a 10 and student loans are maybe a 2. You’re enraged because we didn’t solve a minor issue. We’re busy fucking the entire planet, but that’s not your issue, your big whine is parochial and small. You don’t want to pay the debts you ran up.

    So, you’re not calling a Black/Hispanic man a ‘white supremacist’ over something as important as climate change, you’re hurling vile insults at a man because he doesn’t want to pay off your student loans. Examine your statements above. Take a look at yourself, Dude, you’re not striking a brave pose, you’re just acting like a brat.

    6
  43. Neil J Hudelson says:

    With the oncoming wave of climate change refugees (including internal refugees), inability to produce enough food to avoid widescale famines, and extreme weather events wrecking every person’s personal finances, we won’t really have much need for universities or student debt.

    So in a way, the Republicans and Manchin are solving the issue.

    1
  44. de stijl says:

    @Barry:

    A block option is easy. Just don’t read. Entirely your choice.

    Works wonders for me.

    If someone responds that is their business, not mine.

  45. Dude Kembro says:

    @Michael Reynolds: OK Boomer lol And who have you convinced with your sneering condescenion? Nobody outside of this echo chamber of out-of-touch, arrogant, washed-up bullies.

    Listen up, AARP. Democrats are trying your way. It’s not working. The definition of crazy is doing the same crap expecting different results. Y’all cray. You failed, again, to get young people and black people to show up. You failed, again, to get convince enough people to show up to vote for your lame, establishmentarian status quo. But at least you can still beat your chest and scream at young people online, like a raging, dying lion. Such a demonstration of your deep wisdom and maturity. Pfft!

    The #1 thing were trying to do, actually, is get our voters to show up so we can actually implement forward-thinking. We can’t do anything on climate change when our base is at home, demoralized.

    I have a solution to get young people to show up. You don’t. And, in predictable Boomer fashion, you’re too arrogant to listen or stop snarking and condescending long enough to consider that you’re anything other than 100% right 100% of the time.

    Take your own advice, champ. Look in the mirror. Feel good about yelling at young black men online? Make you feel strong again, buddy?

    I don’t have student loans. It’s not about me. It’s about doing what’s right for those who are struggling, and about motivating our base. But it’s not surprising you meanspirited narcissists would assume my position is about some silly personal benefit to me, since everything you do and believe revolves are you and only you. I don’t think like that, don’t project your self-absorption onto me.

    And, yup, one need not be white to be an agent of white supremacy. I said what I said.

  46. Dude Kembro says:

    @Lounsbury:

    Never mind that the issue of the student debt by the numbers rather looks like a misframing (and rather a benefit to a certain class to no real benefit to the culturally working class white the Democrats have lost).

    Right, let’s just bury our heads in the sand and pretend youth turnout in Virginia didn’t drop from 20% to 9%. The only people who should benefit from Democratic policy is working class whites. Nobody else matters but them.

    Y’all really need to try getting more young people and people of color into this status quo circle jerk.

  47. I would think it might behoove everyone to take a deep breath.

    4
  48. Michael Reynolds says:

    @Dude Kembro:
    Hmm, I seem to have a higher opinion of youth than you do. I thought there was some idealism and a genuine concern for the future of the planet. But you have schooled me, silly Boomer that I am, so now I understand that youth are just another self-involved constituency needing to be bribed to show up for the planet they are allegedly concerned about.

    I’m pretty sure it was Greta Thunberg who said, “If we are to save this planet, pay me, bitches!”

    Fair enough. So I speak now to my fellow Boomers: remember when everyone knew that supporting civil rights would hurt the party for decades? But we did it anyway? We were fools. We should have demanded a pay-off first. Show me the money.

    4
  49. Dude Kembro says:

    @Michael Reynolds: Or it could be that youth are too busy financially struggling under the weight crap of economies Boomers have created, when you were busy paying yourselves off with tax cuts, getting degrees and housing on the cheap then jacking up prices to rape young people when you moved into positions of power, while perpetuating unfunded wars and stealing from the Social Security trust of your kids and grandkids.

    But it’s those wanting to cancel student debt who are self-involved. Not the most selfish and destructive generation in United States history.

    Thanks tho, for doing a good thing sixty years ago before the self-dealing and economic calamity you engineered started. What a martyr.

  50. @Steven L. Taylor: Or, you know, keep insulting one another.