ELECTORAL BETTING
Dean Esmay has accepted two bets from Mark Noonan:
$20 against your $1 that Bush wins [in 2004], $10 against your $1 that Bush wins by better than 10 percentage points.
Intriguing. I’d take the first bet just from a sheer expected utility calculation, although I think the odds are still in Bush’s favor for re-election. I’d take the second wager as well. As polarized as the electorate is, the only way I can see Bush winning by a ten percent popular vote margin is if the Democratic vote is split between the nominee and a truly significant protest candidate on the Left. A ten percentage point win is pretty much a blowout in our system; they are incredibly rare. George W. Bush and his policies are sufficiently controversial–and the economy insuffiently good–for a blowout.
