ELECTORAL MATH

PoliBlogger takes a crack at handicapping the 2004 presidential contest. He notes that, were the 2000 election to repeat itself exactly, Bush would gain 7 electoral votes simply by virtue of reapportionment (the fact that several states, mainly in the Democrat dominated northeast lost population which mainly shifted to the Republican dominated Sun Belt). He also speculates the very close states from last go-around would all likely go to Bush, given his popularity and incumbency. All of this would give Bush a comfortable win.

Of course, as he notes, the election isn’t going to be held today and a lot could happen. If Bob Graham were to somehow win the nomination, he would have to be the favorite in Florida; otherwise, it should be Bush’s to lose.

The really interesting question to me is California. There was a time, not so long ago, when that state routinely voted Republican for president. Indeed, that fact and the party’s strong showing in the South and Mountain West were thought to give the GOP an “Electoral College lock.” Clinton picked that lock in 1992, repeated in 1996, and Gore won in 2000. What changed? The end of the Cold War. Now that national security is back in play as a key issue, arguably the key issue, it is not out of the question that Bush could win the Golden State next year, especially if the economy gets back into gear.

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James Joyner
About James Joyner
James Joyner is Professor and Department Head of Security Studies at Marine Corps University's Command and Staff College and a nonresident senior fellow at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm vet. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.

Comments

  1. John Lemon says:

    Hmmm… I’m not sure I buy the foreign policy logic in your analysis there. The West Coast has a strong libertarian streak that may have explained some GOP victories in the past. The Democrats framing of cultural issues (e.g., gay marriage, abortion) as libertarian issues have helped to capture some of this constituency. Add to this, though, the rise of the green lobby which resonates with the “outdoorsy lifestyle” out here and you get a Democratic victories. My evidence for this assertion, anectdotal admittedly, is Silicon Valley and Microsoft. I will blog more on this later. Why use my good material in a comment box? Visit John Lemon’s Barrel of Fish for plenty of nude Kiran Chentry!

  2. James Joyner says:

    Heh. I provide brilliant analysis in people’s comment boxes on a regular basis. They *really* good stuff gets cross-posted here. 😉

    And you could be right on California. Clearly, there are multiple issues. But my broad thesis is that the rise of Clinton (two double entendres, totally unintentional, and I haven’t finished the sentence; damn that Clinton) was made possible by the end of the Cold War. I think Bush would have carried California, and the country, were people still worried about commies.