Friday’s Forum

FILED UNDER: Open Forum
Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter

Comments

  1. OzarkHillbilly says:

    WBC expels Ryan Garcia after boxer’s racist and Islamophobic slurs on social media

    On Thursday, Garcia’s family released a statement distancing themselves from his prejudiced statements.

    “Our family unequivocally does not support any statements [Garcia] has made regarding race or religion – these do not reflect who Ryan truly is and how he was raised,” the family’s statement said. “Those who know Ryan can attest to this fact. Ryan has been open about his ongoing struggle with mental health over the years and as a family we are committed to ensuring and encouraging that he receives the necessary help to navigate this very challenging time and address both his immediate and long-term well-being.”

    ReplyReply
  2. OzarkHillbilly says:

    ‘Once-in-a-lifetime event’: rare chance to see explosion on dwarf star 3,000 light years away

    In what is being called a “once-in-a-lifetime event”, light from a thermonuclear explosion on a star has been travelling towards Earth for thousands of years and it will be here any day.

    T Coronae Borealis (also known as T Cor Bor, T CrB, and the Blaze star) will be as bright as the north star (for those in the northern hemisphere). Dr Laura Driessen, from the University of Sydney’s school of physics, said the Blaze star would be as bright as Orion’s right foot for those in the southern hemisphere.

    A recurrent nova, T CrB becomes visible about every 80 years after a thermonuclear explosion on the surface of a white dwarf about 3,000 light years away. The dwarf sucks up hydrogen from a neighbouring red giant, and that causes a buildup of pressure and heat that eventually triggers the explosion.
    ………………
    The first recorded sighting of the Blaze star was in 1217, when the abbot of Ursberg, in Germany, saw “a faint star that for a time shone with great light”, Nasa says. It was last seen in 1946.

    NASA’s page on this phenomenon.

    Sky & Telescope’s star chart.

    ReplyReply
    4
  3. Kingdaddy says:

    Here is a 1987 interview with Reagan and four reporters:

    https://youtu.be/98Dd_ba6q3A?si=BQ3ygU-eYaoSWg-5

    Not suggesting any conclusion, just happened on it as a possibly useful data point.

    ReplyReply
  4. CSK says:

    Gotta toddle off to the hospital this morning for some pre-ops before the event itself
    next Wednesday. I’ll check in later.

    ReplyReply
    8
  5. Kathy says:

    I’d like to see an analysis of the vote the Reform party got last night.

    Raw votes they got 4 million, which is impressive considering Labor got 9.68 million. But only four seats to Labor’s 412. from a quick look at totals per seat, it seems Reform got a lot of votes that would have gone to the Tories, making them second place in a lot of constituencies (iks this the right term?)

    So maybe they’re getting the more extreme Conservative voters, those who love Brexit and Rwanda, and not so much the more moderate ones, much less the rest of the population.

    ReplyReply
  6. Kathy says:

    @CSK:

    Good luck.

    ReplyReply
    1
  7. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @CSK: Hoping everything goes well today.

    ReplyReply
    1
  8. Sleeping Dog says:

    @CSK:

    Have the best day possible.

    ReplyReply
    1
  9. just nutha says:

    @CSK: Be well with wishes for a good outcome.

    ReplyReply
    1
  10. Jen says:

    @CSK: Hope everything goes quickly & well. Thinking of you!

    ReplyReply
    1
  11. Beth says:

    @CSK: Good Luck!!

    ReplyReply
    1
  12. CSK says:

    @Kathy: @OzarkHillbilly: @Sleeping Dog: @just nutha: @Jen: @Beth:

    Thank you all very much for your good wishes. I appreciate them.

    ReplyReply
  13. JohnSF says:

    @CSK:
    Best wishes from me also,

    ReplyReply
    1
  14. Kingdaddy says:

    Hope all goes well.

    ReplyReply
    1
  15. JohnSF says:

    @Kathy:
    We don’t have the post-election voter polling surveys yet, with multiple mapping to age, education, income, region, voting history etc etc.
    Or full downloadable seat voting data for me to play about with.

    But the pattern of votes at very superficial glance seems to chime with pre-election polling: the Reform voter demographic mapping is like Conservatives but more so.
    Over 60, no post-school education, white, home-owner, not wealthy but not poor, “upper working class/lower middle class” in UK (not US) terms.
    Largely from less prosperous constituencies, but more smaller towns than the larger cities
    Immigration very, very high salience in issues: over 50% “most important issue”.
    Overwhelmingly Leave voters.

    One interesting question is how far Conservatives base is now more “Remainer” than it was, and what impact that might have.

    Reform came second in 103 seats.
    The key thing will be plotting out the patterns of combined Con/Ref vs Lab/LibDem votes.
    And working out where LibDems won or came close, the proportions of peeved Con vs loaned Lab votes.

    ReplyReply
    2
  16. DrDaveT says:

    In the ought-to-be-good-news-but-isn’t-really department, July 3 did NOT see an all-time record high sea surface temperature for that date. It was the first time in nearly 500 days that this could be said.

    Of course, the record that it failed to beat was set 366 days ago, and was a full standard deviation higher than any year before that, but let’s take our minor victories where we can…

    ReplyReply
    5
  17. CSK says:

    @JohnSF: @Kingdaddy:

    Thank you both. I just have to have a femoral endarterectomy, which means I gotta have some plaque dredged out of it. No biggy.

    ReplyReply
    1
  18. DK says:

    Ex-Israeli military spokesman blames Netanyahu for ‘loss of international trust’ during war (CNN):

    Lt Col. Peter Lerner…served in the IDF for more than 25 years – most recently as a spokesman during the war, before stepping down last month…

    Lerner told Haaretz that in the early days of the conflict, following Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7, “There was a clear understanding that Hamas is an evil and dangerous organization, and that Israel must act against it.”

    That goodwill quickly eroded, he said, partly because of the inevitable suffering of Palestinian civilians as the IDF began the ground invasion of Gaza. But he also blamed the government, saying “there is no political strategy for the war, even after nine months in which we are fighting on two fronts.”

    …Lerner was also critical of ministers who – he maintained – had reduced the legitimacy of Israel’s actions in Gaza.

    “Hamas damaged almost all the power lines that connect Gaza to Israel,” he said. “We had the opportunity to come and say: Hamas is harming the citizens of Gaza, and we, Israel, will try to fix it, but only if he stops the shooting. Instead, the Minister of Energy at the time, Israel Katz, comes out with populist statements about the fact that he will cut them off from electricity and will not deliver fuel to them either.”

    The Lt. Col. is either pushing antisemitic double standards, or he is naïve and doesn’t know anything about war.

    ReplyReply
    4
  19. a country lawyer says:

    We’re having our celebrations a day late so the kids and grandkids could be here. The pork shoulder with my own dry rub went into the smoker around 10:00 this morning. The ribs went in at 1:00 again with my dry rub. I’ll brush the ribs with Sweet Baby Ray’s at 4:00. Everything should be ready around six. We’ve got cole slaw , potato salad, beans, fresh corn and squash, and of course, ice cold Dos Equis. Warm peach cobbler for those with room. Heavan!

    ReplyReply
    3
  20. CSK says:

    @a country lawyer:

    I’ll be right there.

    ReplyReply
    1
  21. Kathy says:

    @JohnSF:

    It certainly was a pleasant distraction from the Biden Piñata Fest.

    I wonder how well the actual results will track with the pre-election polls. And if they are close, why can it be done in the UK and not the US.

    ReplyReply
    2
  22. JohnSF says:

    @DK:
    Generally speaking (pun not intended, but appropriate) much of the Gaza operation has been a right royal fuckup, operationally, politically, and diplomatically.
    Certainly UK military/political opinion generally seems to be that we walked in harms way to help protect Israel from the Iranian missile attacks, and small regard have we had for it.

    Netanyahu continues to refuse to address the requirement for a sustainable governance of Gaza, to sustain his support coalition.
    Probably increased due to the decision of the Israeli Supreme Court that Haredim (“ultra-Orthodox”) are liable to military draft, which is a massive problem for Netanyahu: a coalition splitter, if ever there was one.

    Israel is coming perilously close to losing critical international support that it has been able to take for granted.
    And at a time when indications are that a full-on Israel/Hezbollah war may erupt.

    Netanyahu is a very short sighted person.
    To put it mildly.

    ReplyReply
    3
  23. a country lawyer says:

    @CSK: You’d be welcome but I’m afraid that might undo your surgery.

    ReplyReply
    2
  24. JohnSF says:

    Kathy (from yesterday)

    Couuld he simply refuse to tender his resignation and try to carry on governing? Who’d stop him? Can the Queen call out troops to remove him?

    As with much in the UK “unwritten in any one place” constitutional law, it’s not definitive.
    But the legal powers of a UK executive depend upon the Royal commission and warrant.
    Which the monarch may exercise if the Place determines that the PM has “lost the confidence of the House of Commons” and dismiss said Prime Minister.
    Probably after convening a Privy Council for advice.

    After that, the Civil Service and Armed Forces would almost certainly refuse any order from the illegitimate “PM” as unlawful.
    The Monarch could then call upon any MP to serve as Prime Minister; in practice, of course, the leader of the majority party.

    And it would be a very, very foolish wannabe usurper PM who would calculate on the Brigade of Guards and the Household Cavalry (who are very far from being purely decorative guys on horsies) not to obey the orders of the Sovereign as transmitted via the Chiefs of Staff Committee and affirmed by the Privy Council.

    ReplyReply
    1
  25. Beth says:

    @JohnSF:

    Look at that! An actual monarchy has more safeguards that a fucked up pretend one.

    I also like how the new PM has decided that the first course of business is to make life harder on trans people.

    ReplyReply
    2
  26. CSK says:

    @a country lawyer:

    Aaah, the surgery’s not till July 10. But have a wonderful time with family and all that great food.

    ReplyReply
    1
  27. CSK says:

    @Beth:

    Oh, FFS. Seriously? That’s Starmer’s priority????

    ReplyReply
    1
  28. JohnSF says:

    Happy news time!
    Final election seats results:
    Labour 412
    Conservative 121
    LibDem 71
    SNP 9 (down 38! Labour slaughtered the SNP!)
    Reform 5 (dammit!)
    Greens 4
    Plaid 4
    (ignoring NI because that’s such a different case)

    So, about half way between my prediction and the exit poll, more or less.
    Yay me!

    And now for a selection the Conservatives most prominent names told to bugger off in a parade of shame:
    (you may not recognise them, but trust me, they are each worthy of a celebratory drink)
    Jacob Rees-Mogg
    Andrea Jenkyns
    Michael Fabricant
    Penny Mordaunt (tbh, a bit ambivalent re the Mordauntster: she was a reasonably sane contender for the leadership)
    Johnny Mercer
    Therese Coffey
    Grant Shapps
    Ben Bradley
    Jonathan Gullis
    Liam Fox
    Steve Baker
    Greg Hands
    Daniel Kawczynski
    And…
    … wait for it…
    LIZ TRUSS roflmao

    Also George Galloway.
    FWAFO, Georgie boy.

    Less good: Corbyn won in Islington North, dammit.
    Farage and his mini-me’s getting 5 seats.

    And most disappointing to me: Conservatives hold Bromsgrove.
    With 32.8% of the vote.
    If just half the LibDem vote had gone Labour it would have fallen.
    Drat.
    Dammit.

    ReplyReply
    3
  29. Kathy says:

    @DK:
    @JohnSF:

    That’s one of the things that can happen when someone holds an office to stay out of prison.

    @JohnSF:

    I can see all that. Still, if we imagine someone like Wannabehitler who’d deny the results, claim the election was stollen, fraud, etc., I can totally see him take the simplistic course of simply not resigning.

    ReplyReply
    2
  30. JohnSF says:

    @Beth:
    ?
    I may have missed something, but I’m unaware of Starmer saying anything on policy re trans rights in the last 12 hours.
    The legal problem in the UK seems to be NOT trans-persons at all, but a small number of pretty definitely het-males claiming to be trans, with unfortunate consequences.
    And then those cases being opportunistically propagandized against trans-persons.
    I still think this can be resolved on a reasonable basis.
    And I suspect most Labour MP’s think pretty similarly.

    ReplyReply
    1
  31. JohnSF says:

    @Kathy:

    I can totally see him take the simplistic course of simply not resigning.

    Then, encountering the Household Regiments, he might take the simplistic course of being somewhat dead. 😉
    There’s an unspoken reason why the Royals are the Colonels-in-Chief of many of the key Regiments.

    In practice, it would never get that far: there is zero chance that the Civil Service or any part of Armed Forces would obey the orders of a defeated PM.
    A key difference between the US and UK systems: in the US most senior departmental secretarial positions are appointed by the President.
    In the UK none are.
    The Civil Service is the Civil Service of the Crown; not of the Prime Minister.

    ReplyReply
    2
  32. dazedandconfused says:

    @CSK:

    Glad to hear it’s minor. May the stay be short and the recovery swift.

    ReplyReply
    2
  33. CSK says:

    @dazedandconfused:

    Thank you!

    ReplyReply
  34. Beth says:

    @JohnSF:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/07/01/labour-frontbencher-refuses-to-answer-trans-toilet-question/

    Sir Keir Starmer has said transgender women do not have a right to access female-only spaces, amid confusion over Labour’s stance on which lavatories trans people should use

    See also:

    https://www.assignedmedia.org/breaking-news/labour-landslide-leaves-trans-folks-losing

    During an interview with The Times, Starmer was presented with a question posed by vile partial Holocaust denier and no good talentless hack writer JK Rowling about whether or not “biological males” should be allowed to enter “women-only spaces,” to which Starmer replied: “No. They don’t have that right. They shouldn’t. That’s why I’ve always said biological women’s spaces need to be protected.

    Thanks Kier my by boy, guess I’ll just get the shit kicked out of me for using the pisser. Also, I am a biological woman.

    If you have any articles on this:

    The legal problem in the UK seems to be NOT trans-persons at all, but a small number of pretty definitely het-males claiming to be trans, with unfortunate consequences.

    I would love to read them, I’m not being snarky at all. I have yet to see one and I obsessively read trans coverage. My life depends on it.

    As for the legal problem, it’s actually that cis people fundamentally don’t understand us and think we’re all lying perverts. That’s the whole point of the GRC in the UK and the old Harry Benjamin standards. The whole point of it is to legally torture us as much and as horrifically as possible so that we’ll kill ourselves or at least go back into the closet and leave the “normal” people alone.

    ReplyReply
    3
  35. Bob@Youngstown says:

    Watching Biden -Stephaopolis interview,
    Thought a good question would be:
    “If you were running against Haley, would you more open to dropping out?”

    IMO, Biden is running BECAUSE his opponent is so clearly awful.

    ReplyReply
  36. DK says:

    @a country lawyer:

    The pork shoulder with my own dry rub went into the smoker around 10:00 this morning. The ribs went in at 1:00 again with my dry rub.

    Omg. Wow. *drool*

    God bless Merica.

    ReplyReply
  37. Kathy says:

    On other news, season 2 of Star Trek Prodigy is out on Netflix. As per this streamer’s habit, the whole season dropped at once.

    No spoilers, but it won’t be as easy as having Gwyndala visit her home world. Otherwise it would be a very short season.

    ReplyReply

Speak Your Mind

*