Gallup Poll: Americans Divided On Supreme Court ObamaCare Ruling

Gallup is out with the first poll of public reaction to yesterday’s Supreme Court decision on the Affordable Care Act, and while I will caution everyone to keep in mind that this a “flash” poll, meaning that it is only measuring immediate reactions, and that it is a poll of “Adults” rather that registered or likely voters, the results are interesting:

PRINCETON, NJ — Americans are sharply divided over Thursday’s Supreme Court decision on the 2010 healthcare law, with 46% agreeing and 46% disagreeing with the high court’s ruling that the law is constitutional. Democrats widely hail the ruling, most Republicans pan it, and independents are closely divided.

This reaction, from a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted June 28, is consistent with Gallup polling on the 2012 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act earlier this year, which showed roughly equal percentages of Americans calling congressional passage of the act a good thing vs. a bad thing.

Here’s the breakdown:

Voters are also somewhat divided on what they think Congress should do next:

Most importantly, though, 20% of voters say that they would base their vote on a candidates position on health care reform:

Make of this what you will. As I said in my posts yesterday, it’s going to take several weeks at least to know for sure what impact the Court’s decision will have on public opinion. At least initially, though, it does not appear that it’s going to have a major impact at all.

FILED UNDER: Health Care, Public Opinion Polls, US Politics, , , ,
Doug Mataconis
About Doug Mataconis
Doug Mataconis held a B.A. in Political Science from Rutgers University and J.D. from George Mason University School of Law. He joined the staff of OTB in May 2010 and contributed a staggering 16,483 posts before his retirement in January 2020. He passed far too young in July 2021.


  1. al-Ameda says:

    Interesting, that poll is much more hopeful for Obama than what I expected, given the anti ACA conservative media barrage.

    Chart 1 shows that 52% want to repeal part or all of the law, while 48% want to keep it or expand the government role. That tells me that if Obama and his surrogates can get their act together and present the case, the only people who will continue to oppose it will be Republicans and a few so-called “independents.”

  2. James Joyner says:

    I get why they’re not included in most media polls but, damn, this would be a good time for crosstabs. Specifically, a breakdown by party ID.

  3. Moosebreath says:


    It would also be a good time for a comparison against the most recent poll on the subject. I would not be surprised to see several percent more are in favor of the law now than a few months ago, now that the Constitutional objection has been resolved.

  4. michael reynolds says:

    The danger was a “weak horse” reaction if the ACA had been overturned. Now we have a “strong horse” reality that I suspect will help in the long run. People follow a winner.

  5. walt moffett says:

    @Moosebreath: Take a butcher’s at this chart the Kaiser Family Foundation put together. In brief, April 2010, 46% favorable, 40% unfavorable, May 2012, 37% favorable, 44% unfavorable. Maybe numbers will improve once we start getting exactly what’s covered under what conditions with deductibles/copays of X amount.

  6. Moosebreath says:


    That’s not the same poll, so it’s not quite comparing apples to apples. That said, if it was polling -7% last month and even now, it shows an improvement.

  7. An amazingly even split, overall.

    Still, I think the logic of electing Romney to defeat RomneyCare will have to wear thin at some point. Maybe in September or October, when all those old clips of Romney endorsing the mandate will be on TV …

  8. G.A. says:

    The danger was a “weak horse” reaction if the ACA had been overturned. Now we have a “strong horse” reality that I suspect will help in the long run. People follow a winner.

    lol, you got a trojan horse full of IRS agents….

    Not to mention a dead constitution.

    And the biggest tax increase in the history of the known universe….

  9. Ron Beasley says:

    What is often missed is that a percentage of the unfavorable s are people who didn’t think it went far enough – wanted public option or single payer.

  10. Kylopod says:

    @Ron Beasley: It’s true. Speaking from personal experience, I’ve met more than one person who opposes the individual mandate but favors single-payer, and who probably wouldn’t have been unhappy if the Court had struck down the mandate and left the rest of the law in place. I suspect this view is widespread, but it is likely to be interpreted on polls as support for the Republican position, when in fact it isn’t anything of the sort.

  11. bk says:

    @G.A.: Pretty cool, G. A. Three lies in one post.