GOP Race Not Likely To Be Officially Over Until Late June

Doug Mataconis · Tuesday, March 20, 2012 · 3 comments

Barring some kind of unexpected and unlikely occurrence, Mitt Romney is going to be the Republican nominee for President and he is going to win that nomination on the first ballot at the convention in Tampa. However, it’s most likely going to take us until the very end of the primary process to see him officially get to the 1,144 delegates he needs:

The earliest Mitt Romney could win the 1,144 delegates needed to capture the GOP nomination, per our count is May 29, and that’s assuming he wins every single delegate after today. If you assume that he wins a 60%-40% split of the remaining the delegates, Romney won’t get to 1,144 until June 26, when Utah holds its primary. And if Romney and Rick Santorum continue to trade victories as they’ve been doing over the past month — with Santorum winning his demographic strongholds and Romney winning his — Romney would fall about 50 delegates short of the magic number, according to our math.

It’s worth noting that these calculations don’t include the 200 or so GOP “superdelegates” who are not currently pledged to any candidate. As with the Democratic process, most of these superdelegates are party insiders who are likely to line up behind Romney and, if needed, put him over the top. Another fact worth keeping in mind as we get closer to the convention is this — under RNC rules a candidate must have won at least five states in order to appears on the ballot at the convention. So far, that would mean that neither Ron Paul nor Newt Gingrich would be on the ballot, although they would still be entitled to control their delegates.

Nonetheless, it’s unlikely that this race will be ending any time soon and, most ironically of all, the state that ends up puts Mitt Romney over the top is likely to end up being the most Mormon state in the nation.

Comments

john personna says:

Tuesday, 20 March 2012 at 09:00

Most boring election cycle evar!

And surely this is true no matter where you sit on the political compass.
PD Shaw says:

Tuesday, 20 March 2012 at 09:20

From the link:

But by decisively winning tonight in Illinois (and we’re talking about a double-digit-plus victory and breaking 50%), Romney can deliver a perception blow to Santorum, extinguishing the former Pennsylvania senator’s “insurgent fire,” as the New York Times puts it.

I don’t think Romney will break 50%, I’d guess Paul and Gingrich will take 15% together, and Romney will be in the upper 40%, and Santorum around 40%.

OTOH, Romney will get over two-thirds of the 54 delegates.
PD Shaw says:

Tuesday, 20 March 2012 at 14:01

Apparently tomorrow’s storyline is already being prepared by the media:

Romney Loses Illinois By Winning, Santorum Triumphant

PEORIA, Ill. — Former Mass. Governor Mitt Romney eked out a single-digit nine-point victory in the Illinois Republican primary Tuesday night, losing among working class men, rural Evangelical senior citizens, and Franciscan friars while squeaking past his surging rival by a narrow margin in a state that is near the state in which he was born.

* * *

This primary was another disaster for Romney,” said veteran Illinois political consultant David Axelrod. “The base of the Republican party lives in bomb shelters plotting the overthrow of the government. Romney simply is not getting those voters.”