Guerrilla War and Failed States
John Robb observes that, “One of the most confusing aspect of modern insurgency for the ‘experts’ is that nearly every guerrilla group worth observing is advancing on the objective of state failure rather than state replacement.” Contrary to the traditional Mao-Ho-Castro model, the goal is not takeover of the state but rather chaos.
I think that’s right. Don Snow noticed that trend in the 1990s in places like the Andean drug states and the horn of Africa. It seems to be the case now in parts of the Middle East.
Aside from possibly changing the definitions of “victory” and “civil war,” though, I’m not sure what this means. Other than a lot more bloodshed, of course.