GW Battleground Poll: Bush 49, Kerry 47
Among likely voters, 49 per cent would pick Mr Bush and 45 per cent Mr Kerry, according to the George Washington University Battleground 2004 Poll conducted from September 12-16 and released on Tuesday.
This is very much in line with the RealClear Politics average of all the polls:
3-Way Bush 48.5, Kerry 42.8, Nader 1.8
Head-to-Head Bush 49.2, Kerry 43.5
I continue to believe their method–simply averaging the major polls–is the most likely to capture the national race. Of course, this isn’t a national election but rather 50 state elections plus a 3 Democrat electors from DC.