Has Obama Done Himself Any Good? (Updated)
As James noted yesterday I’m still waiting for the overnight tracking polls to decide whether Sen. Obama has done himself any good with his speech of yesterday. Several people e.g. Talkleft are quoting the Public Policy Polling poll which finds Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama 56-30 in Pennsylvania. Unfortunately, the poll was taken before Obama’s speech so it doesn’t include any reactions to it. Besides, I wonder a little if the interactive voice response polling technology used by PPP doesn’t skew the results of itself. As of this moment I haven’t found any overnight tracking polls.
Most of the commentary I’ve read, as I also noted yesterday, has just been a Rorschach test. Those predisposed favorably towards Obama tended to find the speech uplifting, turning a new page in racial relationships in the United States, those predisposed unfavorably towards Obama have tended to be highly critical. It’s what moderates and independents think about Sen. Obama that is likely to make his candidacy or break it.
The best I could find in the way of polling was the Intrade Prediction market for Barack Obama, below:
Do I detect a little up-tick? There doesn’t seem to be a great deal of volume. Will the the up-tick become a trend? Will the trend be enough to reverse the harm done over the last week?
The Reuters/Zogby poll released today which I’m starting to see quoted was taken March 13-14.