Hillary Leads Everyone In Iowa

Hillary Clinton Speaking 2

A new Quinnipiac Poll from the Hawkeye State shows Hillary Clinton leading every potential opponent, Republican or Democratic:

Hillary Clinton is a big favorite to win the swing state of Iowa if she runs for president in 2016, according to a new poll.

The Quinnipiac University poll shows Clinton leading four top potential Republican opponents by at least 10 points.

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) comes the closest, trailing Clinton 49-39. Clinton beats New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie 48-35; Sen. Ted Cruz (R) 51-35; and former Florida governor Jeb Bush, 51-37.

The poll also has bad news for Vice President Biden, with 62 percent of the state’s voters — including 37 percent of Democrats — saying he would not make a good president.

Obviously, a poll this early out doesn’t tell us much of anything about how elections in 2016 might actually turn out, but they are useful in two respects. First of all, they show the extent to which Hillary Clinton continues to dominate anyone other potential opponent in the Democratic field. While it’s true that this was also the case in the 2008 cycle, the difference between now and then is that there doesn’t seem to be anyone on the Democratic side who could challenge Clinton the way Barack Obama did in 2008. Additionally, poll numbers like this, if they continue, are likely to scare off some potential challengers such as New York Governor Andrew Cuomo who might otherwise enter the race. Second, they should serve as a reminder to Republicans that, while it does look like 2014 will be a good year for the GOP, 2016 has the potential to be very different. Of course, we’ve seen that before. The Republican “revolution” of 1994 was followed two years later by Bill Clinton’s re-election, and the 2010 midterms were followed by Barack Obama’s re-election in 2016. Will we see a repeat of that in 2016? Only time will tell, of course, but based on the numbers right now the GOP faces a serious uphill battle on the road to the White House this time around.

FILED UNDER: Campaign 2016, Public Opinion Polls, US Politics, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Doug Mataconis
About Doug Mataconis
Doug Mataconis held a B.A. in Political Science from Rutgers University and J.D. from George Mason University School of Law. He joined the staff of OTB in May 2010 and contributed a staggering 16,483 posts before his retirement in January 2020. He passed far too young in July 2021.


  1. al-Ameda says:

    I honestly believe that Rand Paul is the strongest GOP candidate on board right now. He does not have a lot of baggage, and he’s not as unpleasant, arrogant, and malevolent as Ted Cruz. I also believe that Paul Ryan could ascend too.

    Iowa — ugh — I keep hoping that Iowa – from a primary standpoint – will become politically irrelevant, however I’m not holding my breath. I wish that media and pollsters would temporarily boycott political coverage of Iowa, at until their disgraceful caucuses are over. Not even a popular vote – just rigged caucuses – I still cannot believe that anyone takes Iowa seriously.

  2. Jax says:

    Any word on Jon Huntsman giving it another shot?

  3. beth says:

    @al-Ameda: I wouldn’t count out Rick Perry. I know he was a disaster in the last election but I blame a lot of that on the medication he was taking for his back. I’ve seen him making a few speeches and he’s a personable guy, sort of like W was back in the day. People like him whether they completely agree with his policies or not. I think he’s the dark horse folks are forgetting about.

  4. Moosebreath says:

    Somewhat more significant than the current numbers is how they changed from the last time this poll was done in December.

    Hillary has gone from a 5 point deficit on Christie to a 13 point lead, from a 1 point lead on Doug’s heartthrob Paul to a 10 point lead, from a 7 point lead on Cruz to a 16 point lead, and from a 7 point lead on Jeb Bush to a 14 point lead.


  5. Andre Kenji says:

    Hillary has lots of name recognition, but he barely reaches 50% of the vote against Ted Cruz. Ted Cruz, for God Sake! I can´t see “inevitability” on that.

  6. grumpy realist says:

    Hillary reminds me of a mechanical Energizer bunny. She just keeps going on and on and on….

    Well, we can’t say she hasn’t been tested by fire. After having to deal with the stuff the Republican party has been throwing at her since Day One of Bill Clinton’s presidency, she must be harder than diamond.

    I’d prefer Elizabeth Warren, but…sigh…..