I Demand a Recount!

Les Jones has announced the winner of his election prediction contest:

The final results are in, and the electoral vote tally is Bush 286, Kerry 252. Three bloggers predicted the results: Election Projection, Outside the Beltway, and VodkaPundit.

The tiebreaker is the date of the prediction. Outside the Beltway made its prediction on November 1. Stephen Green of VodkaPundit made his prediction, based on TradeSports numbers, on October 31. Scott Elliott of Election Projection, based on a composite poll analysis, made his projection no later than October 30.

By a nose, Scott Elliott’s Election Projection wins!

I would note, however, that while my prediction was somewhat later, it was also my final prediction. Scott Elliot actually flinched and made another prediction of 289-249. Stephen had threatened to do a final update on his numbers but never got around to it. Something to do with butter, apparently.

Update: Woohoo! Les has now declared it a three-way tie in light of this new evidence.

FILED UNDER: Campaign 2004, Humor, OTB History,
James Joyner
About James Joyner
James Joyner is Professor and Department Head of Security Studies at Marine Corps University's Command and Staff College and a nonresident senior fellow at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm vet. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.


  1. Les Jones says:

    See my site for an update. I’ve decided to make it a three-way tie.