In All Likelihood, Your Kid Is Not Going To Be The Next Tim Tebow Or Cliff Lee
Tony Manfred at Business Insider reports on some statistics from the NCAA on the likelihood that a college athlete will become a professional athlete:
Even if your kid is good at sports in high school, gets a scholarship, and excels in college, there’s almost no way they are going to go pro.
Only one sport (baseball) had more than 2% of NCAA players go pro.
Here are some of the numbers
- 11.6% of college baseball players play professionally, 0.6% of high school baseball players do
- 1.7% of college football players play professionally, 0.08% of high school football players do
- 1.3% of college ice hockey players play professional, 0.1% of high school ice hockey players do
- 1.2% of men’s college basketball players play professionally, 0.03% of high school men’s basketball players do
- 1.0% of men’s soccer players play professionally, 0.03% of high school soccer players do
- 0.9% of women’s college basketball players play professionally, 0.03% of high school women’s basketball players do
The higher numbers for baseball can be explained largely by the fact that, in addition to Major League Baseball, there are also a large number of minor professional leagues in all parts of the United States. Though the numbers aren’t broken down, I would imagine that the percentage of college baseball players playing for the Major Leagues is about as low as it is for professional football and basketball. Baseball is also unusual in that it was drafting players out of high school, usually into a team’s farm system, long before most other major sports were doing so.
The lesson? Don’t assume little Johnny is going to be set for life just because he’s doing really, really well in Little League.