Incoming Public School Children Now Majority Non-White

School has already started for some parts of the country, and children in the rest of the country will be back to school within the next week or so. When they are all there, it will be the first time in history that the majority of America’s school population is non-white:

White pupils in state schools in the United States are set to be in the minority for the first time when schools return for the new term.

According to official forecasts, enrolments for the 2014-15 school year will mark the threshold when ethnic minorities become the majority.

This demographic shift has been driven by rising numbers of Hispanic pupils.

Figures are gathered by the US Department of Education’s National Center for Education Statistics.

It records the number of pupils in the state school system across the United States – and it publishes forecasts of enrolments in the years ahead.

The figures show a steady decline in the numbers of white pupils since the mid-1990s and a broadly stable number of black pupils, but a sharply rising number of pupils identified as Hispanic.

The school figures show the number of Hispanic pupils has more than doubled over the past two decades and is projected to continue rising in the next decade.

It means that in autumn 2014 the proportion of white pupils is expected to have fallen marginally below 50% for the first time, with about 26% of pupils Hispanic and 15% black.

There are also smaller ethnic groups of Asian pupils, native Americans and Pacific Islanders. Fewer than 3% are identified as mixed race.

The figures show how the increase in the Hispanic population has changed the demography of the school population, rising from 14% of pupils in the mid-1990s and forecast to reach 30% by the mid-2020s.

In the mid-1990s, white pupils represented almost 65% of pupils in the US state school system. The projections show that by the mid-2020s that figure will be about 45%.

Absent some massive change in birth rates or immigration patterns, which seems unlikely, it is clear that the proportion of white students in public schools will continue to decrease while minority populations, especially Hispanics, continue to increase. By the time this group of school children graduates High School in 18 years, it’s likely that the American classroom will be even less white than it is today, which if of course a reflection of what’s going ton in the country as whole.

FILED UNDER: Education, Race and Politics,
Doug Mataconis
About Doug Mataconis
Doug Mataconis held a B.A. in Political Science from Rutgers University and J.D. from George Mason University School of Law. He joined the staff of OTB in May 2010 and contributed a staggering 16,483 posts before his retirement in January 2020. He passed far too young in July 2021.


  1. Neil Hudelson says:

    Great. Now our public schools will be a one-party state.

    …or something like that…

  2. SKI says:

    Still 100% American…

  3. PJ says:

    This is obviously due to god fearing parents of white children homeschooling their kids to get away from the mind altering rays emitting from communist marxist democrats that have taken over the public schools.

  4. Brett says:

    To me this is wonderfully exciting! It’s a visible embodiment to what America is all about.

  5. Grewgills says:

    Well, between 95 and 99% American, we still have some exchange students and students with parents on school or work visas.

  6. Slugger says:

    Being “white” is not just a matter of pigment, but it is largely cultural. The Cubans that I have encountered are pretty “white.” The same for Pacific Islanders. Many who can trace their grandparents to Mexico, Japan, or China believe in the same values as people whose grandparents came from Prussia, Ireland, or Sicily. They eat salad before the main course, think that football involves passing, and like country’n’western music.
    Is this situation in danger? Will we be celebrating el dia de los muertes instead of Halloween? Will their be salsa on our dinner plates….oh no, it’s too late!

  7. superdestroyer says:


    It is odd that you would mention football since Dave Campbell’s Texas Football magazine this year noted that the quality and quantity of high school football players in Texas is decreasing. Texas has, for decades, has produced the most college football players (Division Ia). However, the number of college football players coming out of Texas is going down. The same thing is happening in California. Now the best football players come out of Florida, Georgia, and Louisiana. Of course, the article failed to note the changing demographics of Texas as the main cause.

  8. superdestroyer says:


    I have always found it odd that all of the “data-driven, reality-based” progressives fail to realize how little research has been done of the effects of a school being majority-minority. Even though the Department of Education has funded 100’s of studies on the effects on black children in majority white school, almost no research has been done one the effects on white children of being in a majority black, Latino, or Asian school. Considering the demographic changes occurring in the U.S. it should be a hot area of study but I have always assumed that research are too afraid of what they may find.

  9. Tyrell says:

    @PJ:The numbers of children being home schooled, private, or charter schooled are increasing rapidly. Around here the reason given is the Common Core program. The second reason given is behavior problems.

  10. TheoNott says:

    @superdestroyer: I’m curious, what exactly do you think such studies would find? That the white children somehow suffer from this arrangement? Do you think that Latino/Asian children will insist on speaking languages other than English, or something? I’ve never noticed anything like this. Whites are just barely a majority at the very average state college I attend (and not all of them are even American whites, we have plenty of European exchange students) and yet if white students are harmed in any way from this lack of numerical dominance I haven’t noticed. Do white children struggle in California schools? Hawaii? Conversely, how do they do in Kentucky? West Virginia?

  11. C. Clavin says:

    At least you seem to be un-ashamed by your abject racism. So I guess that’s something.

  12. C. Clavin says:


    Texas has, for decades, has produced the most college football players (Division Ia).

    Sure…in gross numbers which mean nothing.
    FL produces the most D1 Football players per capita…by almost 30%.
    FL – 1:60,000
    TX – 1:76,422
    CA – 1:163,965
    So it seems you have to lie about the numbers in order to support your racism.
    You are pathetic.

  13. superdestroyer says:

    @C. Clavin:

    How is even asking the question racist? A good study would start with a null hypothesis that there is no effect on academic performance based upon the percentage of the school is white after correcting for parental education and income. If progressives were really confident that nothing would be shown, it should be the type of study that they would demand. The results would show that parents are wasting their money on private schools.

    However, I would point out that the Louisville schools (Jefferson County Schools) designed a school desegregation plan that seemed built on the idea of trying to keep black culture from being the dominant culture in any public school in Louisville.

  14. superdestroyer says:


    If you look up NAEP test scores, Hawaii and California underperform versus the national average for white students in Math and English. However, any study would have to correct for parental education, income, and occupation. However, it should be worth studying to determine if a school’s culture is set by the dominant demographic group that if that culture could affect all students. A good example would be to see if certain types of extra-curriculars are much rarer that majority-minority schools and if that affects students.

  15. C. Clavin says:


    How is even asking the question racist?

    Give us a break. You have your answer already. Null hypothesis…bull$hit.
    I complimented you on your ability to be openly racist with a total lack of embarrassment.
    Own it.

  16. superdestroyer says:

    @C. Clavin:

    I take it that even bothering to ask the question is racist? I thought progressives were not afraid of science, data, or studies? I guess progressives only care about academic studies that reinforce their own world views. Thank you for reinforcing a bad stereotype.

  17. Slugger says:

    @superdestroyer: I meant football fans. In our white culture, football is important, but we watch not play. A majority of the players are actually non-white, but the guys talking about it, wearing someone’s jersey, betting money on it, tailgating are “white.” I know a guy whose grandparents lived in Hyderabad who is the biggest Buckeye booster ever. On Saturdays in the fall, he is in front of his TV cheering the Ohio State University eating chips and salsa. He likes Maroon Five and Big Bang Theory. One of the whitest guys I know.

  18. C. Clavin says:

    How is a study on;

    the effects on white children of being in a majority black, Latino, or Asian school.

    You crack me up.

  19. superdestroyer says:

    @C. Clavin:

    But how is studying how being a white kid in a majority black or Latino school racist but the large number of studies on being a black or Latino student in a majority white school not racist.

    I guess I do not have all of the post-modernist logic down to understand how one is racist and the other is not. But then again, I believe that separate and unequal admissions standards are racist unlike most progressives these day.

  20. C. Clavin says:

    We know you are racist…no need to explain it to us.

  21. superdestroyer says:

    @C. Clavin:

    You did not answer the question: why is one type of study racist but reverse the student and school demographics and it becomes acceptable research. Once again, if progressives did not have snark, they would have nothing to say. I guess endless repetitions of the race card is what passes for reality-based, data-driven progressive thought.

  22. superdestroyer says:

    @C. Clavin:

    If you want to try, explain why whites in blue states (or blue cities in red states) are the most likely people to send their children to private school. As public schools become overwhelmingly non-whites, I suspect that white schools will become the domain of the upper middle class white.

  23. Franklin says:


    think that football involves passing

    Which type of football doesn’t involve passing?

  24. Tyrell says:

    Some of the best schools in the country are inner city schools, public and private. These schools are highly successful for varying reasons, but a few characteristics that are common: strong leadership, high expectations, discipline standards, and parent involvement (accountability). The control of the school is given to the principals and teachers, not administrators, politicians, judges, or bureaucrats in Washington or the state capital.
    See Capital Prep in Hartford, CT.

  25. Pinky says:

    Of course it’s racist to frame the question in terms of race. The black to white studies are as racist as the white to black. There are some legitimate questions that can be asked, about language for example, but otherwise this demographic change means absolutely nothing.

    And from what I’ve seen, nobody acts blacker than white suburban high school kids.

  26. Pinky says:

    @Pinky: (I mean in terms of espousing African-American urban cultural stereotypes.)

  27. Slugger says:

    if you ask a question like that, you are obviously a Eurowimp. Likewise, if your motorsports include the ability to turn right or brake.

  28. Grewgills says:


    If you want to try, explain why whites in blue states (or blue cities in red states) are the most likely people to send their children to private school.

    That is not what the article you linked shows, unless Louisiana, Missouri, Kansas, Alabama, Mississippi, etc are blue states now.

  29. DrDaveT says:


    To me this is wonderfully exciting! It’s a visible embodiment to what America is all about.


    And it’s a flat-out challenge bet for the Republican Party: are you guys about making these non-white kids into Americans the same way we made the Irish and Italians and Norwegians and Jews into Americans — and changing our ideas of America as we do so, as we did then — or are you about trying to man the barricades of “America is a white country”, in a forlorn attempt to preserve your privilege and self-image at the expense of all?

    We’ll know soon enough, as the election rhetoric heats up…