Increased Turnout in Texas Primary Early Voting

Both parties are up compared to 2014, but Democratic votes are way up.

Via the DMNTexas early voting numbers a ‘wake-up call’ for GOP as Democrats double their 2014 turnout.

According to the Texas secretary of state’s website — which tracks only the 15 counties with the most registered voters — 161,607 people voted in the Democratic primary in 2014 during the first 10 days of early voting. This year, 310,275 people voted in the Democratic primary in the same span — a 92 percent increase. Polls closed Friday at 7 p.m., with Election Day on Tuesday.

On the GOP side, 273,293 people had voted in the Republican primary as of Thursday. That’s still an 18 percent increase from 2014, when 231,530 voted in the Republican primary during the first 10 days of early voting.

One should be cautious about drawing too many inferences from such numbers, but it does seem more than fair to say that this indicates an unusually high level of voter interest from Democratic voters in Texas heading into the mid-terms.  Since one of the main advantages that Republicans historically have in mid-term elections is turnout, this is an indicator that should concern Republicans looking towards November.

And yes, Republican numbers are up as well (but, again: up 92% for Dems and only 18% for Reps), which I would take as a general indication that the 2018 mid-terms are going to see higher than normal turnout in general, and that races will be more competitive than is normally the case.

FILED UNDER: Campaign 2018, US Politics, , ,
Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter


  1. PJ says:

    Republicans shouldn’t be worried, Russia will be there for them…

  2. Mister Bluster says:

    Russia will be there for them…

    Greetings from Moscow!

  3. Scott says:

    One reason is that there is an unusual number of Congressional openings this year. In my district, TX 21, Lamar Smith, Congressman since 1988, decided to retire. On the D side, there are about 4-5 credible candidates. The R side there is an insane 9-10 candidates. The Democrats see an opening and are going all out. The Senate race seems to be between Cruz and Beto O’Rourke. Cruz is favored primarily because he is a Republican. But he is not greatly liked and really hasn’t accomplished anything except run for President and then grovel over Trump. O’Rourke is running an extremely retail race, visiting just about every little town in Texas, most of whom have never seen a candidate in person.

  4. de stijl says:

    Who could have predicted that electing the bastard offspring of Loki and Regina George (alpha Mean Girl) raised in a moral vacuum and thrust into a Manhattan that rejected him for his outer borough social-climbing audacity, would result in hurting the Republican brand in states that have been traditionally been their breadbasket?

    Texas is going to go purple as will Arizona. That’s not speculation at this point, it’s inevitable (barring some bizarre twist). Florida already is purple but trending towards the blue end of the spectrum. Losing Texas means all hope is lost in R land. Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia – all were trending bluer, but Trump and Trumpism has manifestly accelerated that process.

    Trump is the dog who “caught” the car, bragged about biting it’s tires (even though he actually did not bite any tires but he vaguely remembers a video of someone who may have did that and wants to steal that glory) and then urinated all over the den.

    Trump might not have been a total disaster for the R brand had congressional leaders just ignored his toddler Joffrey cruelty. Had they adopted the stance of “We’re doing the People’s Business here, and whatever happens in the White House stays in the White House,” they might have squeaked by. Probably not, but it was the best option.

    Trump is toxic to young voters. It is an easy and fast transition from – Trump is an R, Trump is a nightmare miasma of id and rage and resentment and bully-boy racism – to all Rs are like Trump.

    Millennials and Gen Z are utterly lost to you now.

    If you are a Republican, Trump is the worst thing that has ever happened to you and will result in the death of your party. Your parting gift was Neil Gorsuch. Enjoy!