Matt Yglesias has reconsidered his reconsideration:

I’m more and more thinking that I should never have backed away from my initial prediction that Dean is inevitable and that it was inevitable that he would once again appear evitable before his ultimate inevitability came through. If one thing’s become clear over the past two weeks it’s that no one has any business trying to predict stuff, but if I had to make a pick, it’s looking like Dean (not for 1st in NH, or at least not necessarily) but for the nomination.

Inevitable? To paraphrase Inigo Montoya, I don’t think that word means what Matt thinks it means.

Fresh off being dead wrong on Iowa, I hereby predict that Dean will not win the nomination. While I’m at it, I am also writing off Joe Lieberman, Wesley Clark, Dennis Kucinich, and Al Sharpton.

FILED UNDER: Campaign 2004, , , , , ,
James Joyner
About James Joyner
James Joyner is Professor and Department Head of Security Studies at Marine Corps University's Command and Staff College and a nonresident senior fellow at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm vet. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.


  1. zygote says:

    In the spirit of being wrong, I hereby declare Al Sharpton will win New Hampshire.
    Beat that!

  2. Anonymous says:

    Not so fast Doctor J.

    They just had a poll on FOXNews that said Sharpton is running third in S.C.

    Ya just never know.


  3. Congrats for staking out a position via Dean (I still think he has a great chance myself, but we shall see).

    I think your other predictions (Lieberman et al) are in line with my predicting Spring is coming…

    Sharpton will do well in Southern States and that’s about it. Of course, he may still win enough delegates to make the convention interesting…

  4. James Joyner says:

    Heh. The others were intended sarcastically.

    I don’t think Sharpton will do that well in the South. He doesn’t have the appeal of a Jesse Jackson.

  5. JW says:

    Two things will work in Sharpton’s favor in the South–the fact that the Democratic base in the South is becoming more and more synonymous with the AFrican-American vote, and the large number of Republicans who may cross over and vote for him in the Dem primary just to throw a spanner into the works.