The current asking price for a recession in 2008 over at InTrade is at 50. Given that the price ranges between 0 and 100, we can look at this number as a probability that there will be a recession in 2008.
Steve has a B.A. in Economics from the University of California, Los Angeles and attended graduate school at The George Washington University, leaving school shortly before staring work on his dissertation when his first child was born. He works in the energy industry and prior to that worked at the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Division of Price Index and Number Research. He joined the staff at OTB in November 2004.