Lamont-Lieberman Exit Poll Results
Taegan Goddard has obtained the CBS/NYT exit poll results from the Lamont-Lieberman race. The results are somewhat surprising.
Overall, 78% disapproved of the decision to go to war in Iraq and, of those, 60% went for Lamont. Going in, I’d have guessed both numbers would be higher, especially the second. That Lamont only got 60% of the anti-war vote explains the closeness of the vote.
Most interesting for the future:
61% of voters rejected the notion of Lieberman running as an Independent candidate in the fall, something he has promised to do. 39% supported it. Moreover, one in five Lieberman voters does not think he should seek an Independent run in November.
Does that actually translate into behavior, though? Will some significant percentage of Lieberman primary voters abandon him in November out of party loyalty or “no sore losers” principle?
UPDATE: Several more bits of data are coming in.
Mark Blumenthal compares the results to the pre-election polls and tries to explain why Lieberman finished closer than expected, focusing mostly on turnout differentials.
Charles Franklin provides plenty of interesting graphical analysis.
Hotline’s Jonathan Martin focuses on demographics and notes that it was the wealthy voters going for Lamont and the working class going for Lieberman:
If there was a way to obtain the per capita income and racial demographics of each Connecticut town, some politico cartographer wizard out there could have a field day portraying the economics and ethnicity of this race. Ned Lamont, scion of the Eastern Establishment, rolled up staggering margins in those places most likely to include his fellow anti-war WASPs. Joe Lieberman, son of a Stamford liquor store owner, won the workaday towns most likely to include other ethnic voters less motivated by opposition to Iraq.
That’s pretty amusing given the “power to the people” mantra of the anti-Lieberman crowd. More amusing is the parting shot: “If it was, as Mike Barnicle put it on Hardball, a battle between Dunkin’ Donuts and Starbucks, the folks holding the soy lattes won.”