Latest Battleground Polls

Ron Gunzburger reports,

In Florida, a new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll places President Bush in the lead in this key battleground state. The numbers: Bush-50%, Kerry-47%. In a three-way race, it becomes Bush-50%, Kerry-46%, Nader-1%. Two new Ohio polls point to different leaders. The CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll places Kerry in the lead by a 51% to 45% vote in a two-way race (or Kerry-48%, Bush-43%, Nader-5% in a three-way race). By contrast, the latest Columbus Dispatch poll shows Bush-47%, Kerry-44%, Nader-2%. Bush carried Ohio by 4% in 2000. In Iowa, the new Des Moines Register poll shows a very close race. The numbers: Bush-46%, Kerry-45%, Nader-2%. In Missouri, the new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll shows a tied contest. Bush and Kerry have 48% apiece in a two-man race … or 47% each in a three-way race (with Nader at 3%). However, the new St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Research2000 poll there, gives Kerry a 48% to 45% lead in the state (or a 47% to 45% lead, with Nader at 2%, in a multi-candidate contest). Moving west, the new Las Vegas Journal-Review/Mason-Dixon poll of Nevada voters gives the lead to Bush at 46%, Kerry at 43%, and Nader at 4%.

The steady tightness of the race continues to amaze me. Neither candidate seems to get the traditional “bounce” from key events or big news. It’s also notable that Nader is getting less support than the margin of error in most of these polls.

FILED UNDER: Campaign 2004
James Joyner
About James Joyner
James Joyner is Professor and Department Head of Security Studies at Marine Corps University's Command and Staff College and a nonresident senior fellow at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm vet. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.