LIEBBY’S CHANCES

Markos Zúniga is crafting campaign strategies for all the “serious” Democrat candidates (excluding Kucinich, Sharpton, and Braun). Today is Joe Lieberman’s turn.

Kos has an interesting analysis and makes some points I agree with, notably the Kerry/Dean meme. If the rest of his analysis is correct, though, Lieberman has no shot, since Markos pins all his hopes on winning in the South. That strikes me as a difficult task, especially if Graham and Edwards make any kind of showing at all. Further, the Sharpton factor is a huge wild card. Will he do as well among southern blacks as Jesse Jackson did years ago? If so, Lieberman is going o have a rough time. Of course, Dean/Kerry will have no shot at all in those states.

The “money primary” is going to be very telling yet again, I think. Given the bunching of primaries, I’m not sure what would prompt any of the candidates to give up early, which means plurality winners in most states. And, unlike the Republicans, there is a post-Jesse Jackson proportional representation scheme, so delegates can be had even by those candidates finishing further down. Indeed, this could finally be the year when the mythical “brokered convention” comes to pass. Remember these words: Super Delegates.

FILED UNDER: Campaign 2004
James Joyner
About James Joyner
James Joyner is Professor and Department Head of Security Studies at Marine Corps University's Command and Staff College and a nonresident senior fellow at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm vet. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.