Meanwhile, In The Rest Of The Russian Empire…
Putin must be worrying about losing what little empire he has built.
Earlier, I argued that the rapid erosion of Russia’s military situation in Ukraine was increasing the stakes for Putin, leading to greater likelihood of awful escalation, beyond just the mass murder and terrorizing of Ukrainian civilians. Putin’s dream of a reconstituted Russian empire is at grave risk. So, too, is the fragment of that empire that exists today. Fears of losing that empire further raises the risk of escalation, since he has to demonstrate to Belarus, Georgia, and some chronically irredentist parts of Russia that the threat of Russian violence against them hasn’t gone away. With fewer soldiers, tanks, and planes by the day to make that threat, where does that lead Putin?
Here’s something that certainly must make him worry: Georgia’s interest in becoming part of the EU:
In a surprise U-turn, the government of Georgia has applied for EU membership just days after declaring it would not accelerate its application, as fears grow among the Georgian public that the Russian invasion might not stop with Ukraine.
And today, the prime minister of Georgia made a public show of welcoming the new head of the NATO liaison office in Georgia.
Russia effectively annexed parts of Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, in its brutal 2008 war. It has expected memories of that brutality to keep Georgia timid and neutral. That strategy clearly failed, and that bad news came on March 3rd.
How are things in Belarus? Putin’s fellow corrupt autocrat, Alexander Lukashenko, may soon commit Belarussian forces to the war in the Ukraine. Lukashenko has already made Belarus part of the war, allowing Russian forces to stage their invasion from Belarussian territory, and supporting the war effort in other ways. But what happens when Belarussian soldiers cross the border, and when they start getting killed?
And things aren’t exactly quiet in Chechnya either. While the recent unrest in Grozny isn’t related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it does show that the regime is at least a little nervous about opposition within the country — enough to threaten an investigative journalist and organize a mass protest against an anti-torture activist.
It’s impossible to say at this point whether there’s a real chance of a color revolution in Belarus, or anti-government violence in Chechnya, or something else that would reduce his mini-empire. But certainly that risk must be on Putin’s mind, as he sees his chief instrument of terror and control continue to grow weaker by the day.
I saw a statement today, without sourcing, saying Belorussians are sabotaging their own rail lines to interfere with Russian movement and that if ordered to enter Ukraine the Belorussian military might mutiny.
For someone allegedly “steeped in history,” Putin doesn’t seem to know much of it.
Russia fancies itself the “Third Rome,” after Constantinople and Rome itself. It bears knowing, then, that Rome did not build its empire under one emperor*, or under one consul. In fact, it took several generations, and many, many bloody wars.
Meantime, the Second Rome as the Byzantine Empire (which called itself the Roman Empire) met with a great disaster when Justinian tried to reconquer lost parts of the Roman Empire, notably North Africa and Italy (to quote Robin Pierson “What is the Roman Empire without Rome?”)
At that, Justinian had a brilliant general, Belisarius. Vlad the Butcher lacks a comparable figure. Justinian also had a pandemic, possibly a version of bubonic plague. That Vlad has with COVID.
One can cite other great powers who failed miserably trying to reconquer lost territories. Spain and France, for instance, trying to get back Mexico and Haiti respectively. Or the French, again, in Indochina after WWII.
We can see what group Vlad is about to join.
*Actually most of the territorial expansion and empire building took place during the Roman Republic era. The first formal emperor, Augustus, warned against expanding the borders of the empire, favoring the protection of existing ones.
This is an interesting take:
http://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/03/22/vladimir-putin-doesnt-care-honey-badger-00019350
It’s also depressing.
If I may extend the analogy, Rome fought enemies with similar armament, but disimilar discipline and organization. The legions were famously well-disciplined and coordinated, with a tight, well-run organization. These gave them an advantage, albeit not an absolute one. Losses were plentiful (which made said wars bloody for all concerned).
When they fought a similarly disciplined and organized enemy, like the armies of the Greek king Pyrrhus of Epirus, they lost. Oh, they inflicted heavy losses, which gave rise to the expression Pyrrhic Victory (“One more such victory and I’ll be utterly ruined!” the king is quoted as having said).
Vlad’s armies seem to lack in discipline and especially organization compared to Rome’s legions. Ukraine can bleed these armies for a long time, ceding territory slowly if they must, so long as supplies from the West keep coming in (“I need ammunition, not a lift,” Zelensky said and we can see why).
In another odd historical similarity, it has been a long-standing Russian tactic, maintained through WWII, to trade space for time. That is, Russia is so vast, it could afford to let invading armies take and try to hold on to territory, while they retreated and regrouped.
Ukraine can’t quite match that, but it is a big country and has a good army (better than most people thought, I’m willing to bet). And Russia isn’t having an easy time either taking or holding territory.
Think of WWI in the Western Front, or perhaps Vietnam. Ukraine cannot repel the Russian invaders, but these cannot take Ukraine.
Kingdaddy, I know it’s been said many times since your return, but thank you for coming back. As always, a clear, concise, and well reasoned piece.
There are moments when you assume that you have read something wrong, or that something has gone massively awry in the summation of reporting. Clicking through for that…
Ok then. Obviously 400,000 is a fictitious number, as that would be about the size of Trump’s inaugural crowd, but still…
Well, he is very direct. I will absolutely grant him that. Not sure why he wanted to ensure his threats were not translated into Russian, though, since Putin would likely approve and give him a cookie.
Did Yangulbayev do anything other than suggest that perhaps the government not torture people? Nothing obvious pops up on a Google search.
Shit’s fucked up.
Re. Belarus, there’ve been repeated reports, with what credibility I’m not sure, that the reason Belarus forces have kept out is that the commanders are telling Lukashenko
– they are in a worse condition than the Russians for fighting
– that conscript units are liable to mutiny
– that they need the loyal professional units for internal security
And re. Russia:
Some casualty figures reported as published then retracted, or communication intercepts etc.
Source reliability uncertain, but tracks with comments from US DoD and UK MoD, and guesstimates from vehicle losses:
And this:
Even the second quote indicates an unsustainable rate of loss
Western military assessments seem to be that at current levels of engagement average Russian casualties are running at around 1,000 a day.
In addition, combinations of equipment loss and casualties must by now have rendered an unknown but substantial number of Tactical Groups ineffective.
And all this before Russians have even begun ground attacks in Kyiv or Kharkiv.
Or even gotten massed artillery guns/rockets (as opposed to missiles) in range of central Kyiv.
Or taken Sumy or Mariupol.
And lots of indicators that they are unable to supply food, fuel and ammunition to the forward formations adequately.
If the Russians continue like this, their army will collapse.
My understanding is that Japan, in at least some quarters, sees an opportunity to regain control of the Kuril Islands as well. Japanese news is reporting that Russia has cut off all family visits to graves and other courtesies that have been extended. Japan would love to have that territory back, and Russia seems ill-equipped to defend it at the moment.
@Tony W:
A direct attack and serious fighting with a nuclear power is a very risky thing.
Russian air and naval forces in the Far East are sufficient to ensure it would not be just a matter of land and occupy.
And the Pacific Fleet submarine force would give any landing course a lot of concern.
Very, very highly improbable.
@Tony W: And recall that Russia and Japan still have not signed a peace treaty ending WWII.
It’s been noted on another thread that the Kievan Rus is the real progenitor of Russian civilization. But since Vlad is intent on making claims based on some fanciful notion of Russian territorial rights, perhaps Erdogan should remind him that the lands around the Black Sea were under Ottoman rule until the 18th century, if memory serves.
@SC_Birdflyte:
Plus the northern part of Ukraine was part of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth until 1648 (IIRC) when the Cossack revolts led to a Russian-Cossack alliance and an “autonomous” Cossack state under the suzerainty of the Tsar in the eastern half.
The Hetmanate aka the Zaporizhian Host.
Lasted until annexed by Russia in 1745 at the same time that Russia began its advance to the Black Sea, and later to the Kuban and Caucasia.
The Poles kept the western part until the Second Partition of Poland, when it was taken by Russia.
Apart from the far west (Lvov area/Ruthenia/Transcarpathia) which was snaffled by the Austrians.
Ukrainian history is complicated. 🙂
(And often very unpleasant for the poor bloody peasants on the ground: “may you live in interesting geography” to adapt the saying.)
Putin has done a terrible job, during his long tenure, of leveraging Russia’s large territorial advantage, including the vast natural resources therein, as well as its clever people for economic success. Instead, he has pursued a path tread by previous megalomaniacs for grand expansion and control of other territories and individuals. If Putin couldn’t succeed as a dictator in leading Russia forward, why should anyone believe he can succeed by ruling over more land and subjects. It is no wonder Ukraine is fighting like hell to be free from this monstrous personality type. We must do all that we can to help Ukraine, while avoiding WWIII. As a product of the Cold War, I understand we must be resolute and smart. When Russia says they will use nukes if they have to against Ukraine, a non-nuclear weapons country, there must be an understood consequence for entertaining such an action. In the 1980’s similar threats by the Soviet Union were met with the U.S. and its allies putting Pershing II missiles in Western Europe. That act scared the sane members in the Soviet Union’s inner circle of leadership to agree to a nuclear arms treaty, thereby reducing nuclear arms and lowering the possibility of an all out nuclear war. Perhaps it’s time to start talking about a Pershing III program, where we plan to meet such threats by by putting such missiles in Poland and other NATO countries currently on Putin’s wish list of nation’s to control.
@Kathy:
Belisarius is certainly one of the most interesting characters in ancient history. Also, one of the most unfairly treated, to the detriment of the Empire.
@JohnSF:
There’s an episode of Servant of the People that has a funny bit about the complexity of Ukrainian history. I saw a clip of it before the series was released on Netflix, but I don’t know which episode includes it. You’ll know it when you see it.
@Chris:
Not an enormous change in policy, re. deployment.
B-61 nuclear bombs are currently stationed at Kleine Brogel in Belgium, Büchel in Germany, Aviano and Ghedi in Italy, Volkel in the Netherlands and Incirlik in Turkey.
Adding them in Poland and Romania would not be that big a step.
But they are strictly a NATO force.
To use them, or any other nuclear weapons, or to threaten their use, in response to a nuclear strike on Ukraine would be a monumentally perilous decision.
@Kingdaddy:
Don’t know if you’ve come across this joke from the region:
This old guy gets to Heaven, walks up to the Pearly Gates, and there’s St. Peter, checking the records
St Peter asks:
“Nationality?”
-“Ruthenian”
“Place of birth?”
-“Austrian Empire”
“School?”
-Czechoslovakia
“Married in?
-“Hungary”
“Children born in?”
-“Third Reich”
“Grandchildren born in?”
-“USSR”
“Died?”
-“Ukraine”
St Peter exclaims: “Well, I must say, you got around a bit!”
Little guy: “Not so much. We never left Mukachevo.”
Thanks. I’ve been reminded of that joke often lately and couldn’t remember where I’d seen it. Now that you remind me, I believe it was here, from you.
This war has been a master class in unintended consequences and interesting revelations.
Start a war to conquer Ukraine and break NATO, end up having your ass handed to you by the Ukrainians, re-arming Germany and strengthening NATO. Also? The way to convince countries that they’re better off in your economic system is not to close your stock market, jack interest rates up to 20%, turn your currency into confetti and suddenly deprive your population of access to banks and credit cards.
People like Dr. Joyner will be teaching this war forever.
The interesting revelation is that far from being some wily strategist, Putin is a degenerate gambler who thought because he won the first three throws he was invincible. Also, not that this should be a surprise, but criminal enterprises – and that’s what Russia’s government is – are not great at preventative maintenance.
Bloody hell!
Wall Street Journal report.
NATO makes it’s first statement on estimated Russian losses in Ukraine:
That is more than a fifth of the invasion force of 190,000.
One in ten of the entire Russian Ground Forces numbers.
Some context: that’s more casualties than the Germans suffered at the Battle of El Alamein, and not that far below their losses in the Falaise Gap in Normandy.
@JohnSF:
If you go with the 9-12K killed figures that have leaked out of Moscow, the casualty totals would be 33-36K and 4000 captured or deserters would seem reasonable. But still…
@JohnSF: Caution, that’s including missing. In a context where there have been credible suggestions of significant mass desertions. So unlikely to be casualties equivalence.
The Russian “oops” publication this AM of 9k KIA though suggests real catastrophic performance.
@Lounsbury:
I know; the El Alamein and Falaise figures also include MIA.
Though it has to be said, most MIA at those were almost certainly dead; the Russian MIA probably includes a fair few currently hiding in the woods. or driving a stolen Lada in the direction of Minsk.
Also, I suspect the total casualty figure may be lower than NATO assumptions used.
Some others indicate an usually high ratio of killed to wounded due to poor Russian medical support and large numbers of Russian being casualties of shaped charge weapons etc impacting armoured vehicles = low probability of survival.
But even if the true figure was half the NATO estimate, that’s an unsustainable loss rate.
Especially given Russia has still not committed infantry in force to take and hold the core areas of Mariupol, Sumy or Chernihiv, let alone Kharkiv or Kyiv.
And the Battalion Tactical Group basis of the Russian forces makes the formations harder to “fix up” than NATO style arrangements.
And heaven knows what their losses are in supply trucks, fuel tankers and pre-positioned stocks.
@JohnSF: precisely that MIA for US and Germans in those battles were almost certainly mostly unIDed / confirmed KIA whereas we have decent reason to suspect that for Russians right now they may indeed be experiencing a mass desertion / sit-it-out effect.
Which is about equally damning in the end.
But does confirm the Trump level of Genius it turns out Putin has.
Putin’s ambitions:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/22/alexander-dugin-author-putin-deady-playbook/
Excerpts:
…
…
Dugin’s book reviewed (from 2004, Putin has been following that playbook ever since):
https://tec.fsi.stanford.edu/docs/aleksandr-dugins-foundations-geopolitics
This a very lengthy very long read, bottom line:
@JohnSF: In about the same length of time, the Marines in the battle for Iwo Jima, had approximately 26,000 casualties including 7,000 killed. It was the only battle in the war where the allied casualties exceeded that of the enemy. On the other hand, virtually the entire Japanese garrison of 22,000 soldiers were killed.
@Michael Reynolds:
Speaking of strengthening NATO:
(This appears to be a long-term deployment, beyond the 140,000 troops currently on temporary emergency reinforcement in Baltic/Central Europe/Balkans area)
And UK purchasing £533 million worth of new US built Ballistic Missile Defense system components.
Germany also looks likely to acquire THAAD missile systems, some thirty five F-35’s, and fifteen additional Eurofighter Typhoons.
There’s a head of steam now behind European defence and strategic industry moves that’s going to have it’s own momentum going forward, at least until there are major changes in Russian politics.
And probably even after that: institutions have inertia, and this level of spending is going to generate political factors in itself.
@CSK:
As a counter to the “honeybadger” model, here’s a take from Chas Freeman, one of our retired diplomats. It’s an hour long but worth it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0vxufUeqnuc
I’m of the opinion that we must not dismiss the possibility Putin is not a honey badger, he simply made an egregious, huge, mistake. What makes that seem incredible is the thought that big mistakes don’t happen at that level, but they do. It seems incredible to me we assume such mistakes are not possible with our own invasion of Iraq so historically recent, an act based on a firm belief our own BS.
@charon:
Another Post piece, apparently Putin is also a bit of a religious nutter:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/22/putin-religious-russia-history-ukraine/
…
…
@charon:
Who knew in this day and age some world leader would worship Moloch.
@JohnSF:
Thoughts on how Germany and Europe should rearm.
HOW THE BUNDESWEHR SHOULD SPEND ITS MONEY
@charon: I think you badly misinterpret.
Putin is a Great Russian ethno-supremacist nutter – the Russian Orthodox Church is less a “religious” qua religion than a ethno-identarian supremacist nuttiness.
Perhaps not that far from the white supramcist born again nutters of USA land whose actual religious practice is non-existant and the born-Again Protestant supremacism is really just a part of white supremacist identity.
BTW, it is going to be political malpractice if the Opposition (Democrats and anti-Trump Republicans) can not use all of this to emasculate Trump and his fellow travellers who have rained praise on Putin the past few years.
Not that Foreign Adventures are normally particularly domestic politics compelling but this has all the ingrediants to be used successfully.
@CSK: I can see I was wrong about Putin needing to consult with Kim Jong eun. Putin understands Juche just fine. ☹️
@JohnSF:
As a nominal Jew there’s a frisson when I welcome the return to Germany of the military-industrial complex.
@Lounsbury:
Probably shouldn’t read too much into Putin’s citing of religion. It was also Solzhenitsyn’s thought that post-Soviet Russian society could and probably should be organized around the Russian Orthodox church, as reported by Hedrick Smith. It was the only institution which the Soviets could not crush, which says quite a lot, and a practical matter for re-shaping a shattered society more than and ideological one. Putin followed that idea and has promoted the institution all along. He’s far more White Russian than a Red.
@dazedandconfused: Yes what I meant – in the end Putin and Orthodox Church is not religion as religion, but religon as tool of empire and ethno-chauvinism.
@Michael Reynolds:
As person from Coventry, I’d admit a bit of bit of ambivalence about it myself.
@Michael Reynolds:
@JohnSF:
The thing is, Germany seems to have changed in the base format of its culture, and the politics that emerge from that.
And has been conditioned to the post-1945 international ecosystem of Europe: EU/NATO, and the US as global ringmaster, and the rest of the architectures of Roosevelt and Truman.
And the international politics that emerge from those.
Along with other European states.
It’s unfortunate that Russia continues to insist in living in the zero-sum world-system of Vienna rather than that of Helsinki.
To crave another fix of the drug of empire.
To continue to live in a world of Mearsheimer-style machtpolitik “realism” that is no longer realistic; if it ever was.
The tale of Weimar rebooted.
@Lounsbury: If exploited as such by a government makes a religion not a religion, then there have been no “real” religions. For the people of deep faith in Russia, it’s real. They clung to it in the face of sever Soviet disapproval.