Moody’s Predicts 2016

Via CNN Money:  Time-tested model says a Democrat will win in 2016

Republicans might be in the spotlight this week with their first big debate, but Democrats received some very encouraging news. Moody’s Analytics, which has correctly predicted every presidential race since Ronald Reagan’s victory in 1980, just came out with its forecast for 2016.


Moody’s says the Democratic nominee will get 270 electoral votes — the minimum number of votes needed to win — while the Republican nominee will accumulate 268 votes. The model correctly predicted every state in the 2012 election and has a nearly 90% success rate in forecasting each state accurately since 1980.

It will all come down to Virginia and Ohio this time because Moody’s predicts that Republicans will win Florida. At the moment, Moody’s says Virginia will go Democratic and Ohio will swing Republican, but that could change.

“If President Obama’s approval rating falls by any more than 2 percentage points by Election Day, Virginia will swing and the Republicans will win the president,” the report says.

We shall see…

FILED UNDER: Campaign 2016, US Politics, , , , , ,
Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter


  1. golfmax13 says:

    Wow! I realize I’m biased but if we based the election on reality and common sense it shouldn’t even be close. If it were a fight they’d probably stop it. I guess this should show me how far down the crapper half of the people in this Nation have plunged. Just wow.

  2. JohnMcC says:

    Prediction markets don’t have it that close.

  3. Dave Schuler says:

    As you say, we shall see. Presumably, their prediction takes the state of the economy into account and so far their prediction for the economy has been drastically wrong.

    The economy is probably not going to be a factor that works in the favor of the Democratic candidate whoever she or he is. Demographics probably works against the Republican candidate. Turnout will probably favor the Republican candidate.

    It’s a long time from now until the election. A lot can happen. Fortunately for predictors nobody ever remembers their wrong predictions issued this far ahead.

  4. OzarkHillbilly says:

    270 to 268. In other words, it’s a toss up.

  5. gVOR08 says:


    270 to 268. In other words, it’s a toss up.

    But, but… SDs been telling me it’s a sure thing for the Dem?

  6. Kylopod says:

    @gVOR08: Please stop. You’re almost making me wish the GOP will win just so I can laugh at SD for being proven wrong.