Nate Silver Puts Obama Chance of Winning at 70.2%
Via FiveThirtyEight: Aug. 1: Obama Extends Electoral College Advantage
Barack Obama’s standing in the FiveThirtyEight forecast reached its strongest position to date on Tuesday as a result of favorable polls in a set of swing states. The forecast model now gives Mr. Obama a 70.8 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, up from 69.0 percent on Monday and from 65.0 percent last Tuesday.
This was on the heels of polls in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania that were favorable to Obama.
Currently Silver predicts a 297.7-240.3 EV split in Obama’s favor and a 50.6%-48.8% popular vote differential.
Despite all of the talk about the economy and the unemployment numbers, I have to say that the election-based numbers continue to look very problematic for Romney. The bottom line is Romney has to have everything go his way in a number of key swing states, and at the moment this does not seem very likely.