Nate Silver Puts Obama Chance of Winning at 70.2%

Via FiveThirtyEight:  Aug. 1: Obama Extends Electoral College Advantage

Barack Obama’s standing in the FiveThirtyEight forecast reached its strongest position to date on Tuesday as a result of favorable polls in a set of swing states. The forecast model now gives Mr. Obama a 70.8 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, up from 69.0 percent on Monday and from 65.0 percent last Tuesday.

This was on the heels of polls in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania that were favorable to Obama.

Currently Silver predicts a 297.7-240.3 EV split in Obama’s favor and a 50.6%-48.8% popular vote differential.

Despite all of the talk about the economy and the unemployment numbers, I have to say that the election-based numbers continue to look very problematic for Romney.  The bottom line is Romney has to have everything go his way in a number of key swing states, and at the moment this does not seem very likely.

FILED UNDER: Campaign 2012, Quick Takes, US Politics
Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter

Comments

  1. James in LA says:

    The tax returns issue is not going to go away, either. Mitt Romney is turning into political kyryptonite.

  2. J-Dub says:

    Where can Romney get any positive movement? From his tax policy, that he claims can’t be scored because of its awesome job creating power but is scored horribly by the Tax Policy Center? From his supposed business acumen?

    It’s easier to see where he can’t make any progress.
    – with African Americans, dead in the water
    – with Hispanics, almost as dead in the water
    – with homosexuals, he humiliated the only gay person he knew in high school, D.O.A.
    – with women, may stay neutral unless the Dems start hammering him on contraception/abortion
    – Foreign policy, blew his one chance last week
    – advocating continued/new military interventions, a negative for a war-weary nation
    – tax cut policy, we see now that he is being hammered on his tried-and-failed trickle-down plan

    What else am I missing?

  3. J-Dub says:

    I almost forgot, he does have vote suppression on his side…

  4. Nikki says:

    – with homosexuals, he humiliated the only gay person he knew in high school, D.O.A.

    Don’t forget Richard Grenell, the foreign policy spokesman who got run over by the campaign bus once Romney supporters realized they had a gay in their midst.

  5. Loviatar says:

    A Doug Mataconis reword:

    Nate Silver Puts Obama Chance of Winning at 70.2% seen as Mildly Positive, But Far From Good News.

    Barack Obama’s standing in the FiveThirtyEight forecast reached its strongest position to date on Tuesday as a result of favorable polls in a set of swing states. Most analysts were expecting relatively weak numbers. Instead, the forecast model now only gives Mr. Obama a 70.8 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, up from 69.0 percent on Monday and from 65.0 percent last Tuesday, albeit one that still has it’s own share of weaknesses:

    – Mitt Romney has a 30% chance of winning
    – Mitt Romney is predicted to win 240.3 Electoral Votes
    – Mitt Romney is predicted to win 48.8% of the popular vote

    Check back again on September 7th and we’ll see where we are. For now, though, this is nothing to write home about and something that the President ought to still be very worried about.

    Update: WingNut site that validates my crackpot Libertarian Republican ideas.

  6. al-Ameda says:

    Romney is adding no value whatsoever to his campaign, and it’s getting worse. The more people see, hear and know of Mitt Romney the less they like him.

    All Romney has going for his campaign is “Anybody But Obama.” And maybe that’s enough, however right now Nate Silver calculates otherwise. Well, 90 days of campaigning left – that’s a long run.

  7. Ron Beasley says:

    Electoral-Vote.com has it at 332 evs for Obama and 206 for Romney. Five states are listed as barley Obama and Romney would have to take all of those. One is Wisconsin and I think it is unlikely that Romney will take it.

  8. Peacewood says:

    It’s still really early, and any number of things go wrong.

    For instance, Greece decides to blow the EU, Europe spirals, and all bets are off.

  9. @Peacewood: This is certainly true. On the other hand, you are arguing that Romney’s best chances are linked to external and catastrophic events.

  10. anjin-san says:

    Romney’s best chances are linked to external and catastrophic events.

    Since the “pray for $6 gas” strategy is not working out, the right is left to pray for other disasters…

  11. Ron Beasley says:

    @Peacewood: If things go south because of external issues people will often prefer a known leader so I’m not sure that would help Romney.

  12. jd says:

    @Steven L. Taylor: “Romney’s best chances are linked to external and catastrophic events.”

    Like an Act of God?

  13. anjin-san says:

    Up to 71.1% today.