New Hampshire (and More Ron Paul)

An earlier post set off the normal reaction from Paul supporters.

For those in that thread who objected to the fact that the poll was a Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll, here’s a Gallup Poll from USAT which looks just at New Hamphire (the other poll was national in orientation) and it shows Paul with 9%. This ties him with Huckabee, who is also at 9% and statistically ties him Giuliani, who has 11%, as well as with Fred Thompson (4%) and Hunter at 1%) given the margin of error of 5% (given that Paul’s numbers could be anywhere from 14%-4% and Hunters could be as high as 6%).

NH, at the moment, has the real potential to deal serious blows to Giuliani and Thompson, and take the air out of Huckabee’s surge. McCain has the most to gain, as a solid second place finish would place him, in the media’s eyes for sure, into the top tier again. A Romney loss could also seriously damage him, as this is his region of the country.

NH is also Paul’s best chance at a double-digit showing in an early state (if not any state) given its strong libertarian strain.

If one goes to the national numbers in this poll, Paul is at 5%–a whopping two points more than the FN/OD poll.

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Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter


  1. Anderson says:

    I would expect that Osama bin Laden could poll 3%-5% in the U.S.

  2. Your’re going to get them started!

  3. Mark Jaquith says:

    Predictions for anything beyond NH and Iowa are probably premature. At least one candidate will drop out after those showings, and two will emerge seriously wounded. Thompson is probably first to go, as he’s almost out of money. Romney can float his campaign for as long as he wants to, and Paul has coffers aplenty. Huckabee isn’t rolling in dough, so he needs two top three finishes to keep the Evangelical support train rolling. Duncan Hunter is already out. John McCain is the wild card. He could very well be considered top tier after NH and Iowa. Giuliani’s “focus on the later states” strategy is tanking, but it is his only chance now, as he’s screwed in NH and Iowa.

    Prediction: Romney
    Hope: Paul

  4. B. Minich says:

    I love how Paul supporters come out and say “it is ridiculous that we are tied with Duncan Hunter. We CLEARLY have more support than Duncan Hunter!”

    Well, let me just remind said supporters that anecdotal evidence of support doesn’t translate into national support. Just because you have encountered a lot of Paul supporters doesn’t mean that there is a lot of support for him.

    Also, just because he’s raised a lot of money doesn’t mean that’ll magically turn into votes and support.

  5. yetanotherjohn says:

    I would just like to point out that given the stellar performance of “other” (less than 0.5%), and since I can clearly be labeled as within the “other” field, I am statistically tied with Ron Paul. However, in the spirit of the season, I will concede that Ron CLEARLY has more support than I do.

  6. Davebo says:

    Also, just because he’s raised a lot of money doesn’t mean that’ll magically turn into votes and support.

    I’m not sure about that. Let me preface by saying I don’t support Ron Paul.

    But the number of contributions, rather than the amount, is pretty incredible. It’s a safe bet these people will go to the polls while a lot of republicans might just stay home this year.

    A long shot no doubt. But then again, aren’t all the others as well?

  7. Christopher says:

    Yea, Anderson! And the Osama bin Laden supporters would all be liberal democrats! LOL! (Harry Reid leading them)

    Speaking of polls, the only true statistical dead heat is if the liberal democrat Hillary-female supporters are more annoying, or the democrat liberal black-Obama-muslim supporters, or Ron Paul supporters.

    We will see in the end.

  8. Dick says:

    …Yes Chris, liberals are evil, George Bush is a fine decent man and Republicans are saving the world! (What dimension of reality do you live in anyway?)