NEW HAMPSHIRE EXIT POLLS

WaPo has ’em: New Hampshire Voters Weigh In

The thing I find fascinating is how sweeping Kerry’s victory was. As with a sporting event, the final score sometimes gives the impression that the game was closer than it really was.

  • Kerry won among men and women, all ideologies, all age groups except the under-30s, all income groups, among everyone who decided in the last month, and most of the issue groups.
  • Dean came in first only among the under-30s, those who chose more than a month ago, idiots (i.e., those who thought the most important quality was either “stands up for what he believes” or “would shake things up in Washington”), and those who thought the war in Iraq was the most important issue.
  • Clark won–but only slightly–among those for whom national security/terrorism was the most important issue.
  • Edwards and Lieberman didn’t finish first in any category.
  • Kucinich and Sharpton didn’t even make the chart.
  • FILED UNDER: Campaign 2004
    James Joyner
    About James Joyner
    James Joyner is Professor and Department Head of Security Studies at Marine Corps University's Command and Staff College and a nonresident senior fellow at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm vet. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.

    Comments

    1. melvin toast says:

      Things change fast around here. First Dean is the defacto candidate and two weeks later it’s Kerry.

      I think it’s only a matter of time before Kerry is broadsided. He’s too much of a fraud to weather the scrutiny. And he’s too much of a stiff to pull a Bill Clinton.

      I’m still predicting Dean

    2. James Barber says:

      The press will gouge Teresa Heinz Kerry and ignore Kerry’s record, at least in the first attack. My prediction would be that Teresa stays subdued until after the nomination and then causes him major, humiliating headaches.

    NEW HAMPSHIRE EXIT POLLS

    Kevin Drum has a roundup of the early ones. No surprises: Kerry with a significant lead over Dean, with Edwards, Clark, and Lieberman trailing far behind.

    His average of the six polls he’s seen:

    Kerry – 35.7
    Dean – 31.1
    Edwards – 12.6
    Clark – 11.5
    Lieberman – 6.4

    It’s possible that Clark and Edwards flip-flop, although I doubt it.

    FILED UNDER: Campaign 2004
    James Joyner
    About James Joyner
    James Joyner is Professor and Department Head of Security Studies at Marine Corps University's Command and Staff College and a nonresident senior fellow at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm vet. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.