No Convention Bounce For Romney In Florida
The first post-convention poll out of Florida doesn’t indicate any real benefits for Mitt Romney in Sunshine State:
PPP’s newest Florida poll, conducted completely after the Republican convention, finds no change in the Presidential race there. Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 48-47, exactly as he did on our last poll of the state five weeks ago.
The Republican convention being held in Tampa appears to have been a wash. 33% of voters say it made them more likely to vote for Republicans, 33% said it made them less likely to vote for Republicans, and 34% said it didn’t make a difference to them either way.
Romney did see a slight bump in his favorability numbers. 49% of voters have a positive opinion of him to 47% with a negative one. That +2 spread is up a net 5 points from late July when his breakdown was 46/49.
We’ve seen similar small upticks in Romney’s likability numbers in other post-convention polls, so at least that’s somewhat good news for the campaign. Nonetheless, it seems clear that Florida remains as tight as a drum, with the RCP average showing a slight advantage at the moment for the President. Nonetheless, most of the recent polling there has shown the race to be a one-point affair at best.
In other news, Republicans wondering how the Clint Eastwood performance has been perceived by voters would do well to pay attention to this:
Clint Eastwood’s speech may have drawn more attention than anything else that happened at the convention and it didn’t go over particularly well with voters. 36% say they have a favorable opinion of his remarks to 41% with a negative opinion. While Eastwood’s speech didn’t do much to help Romney it doesn’t seem to have hurt his own reputation either. 72% of Floridians have a favorable opinion of him to 11% with a negative one and even with Democrats the spread is 58/20. Those are certainly numbers any politician would die for.
So, let’s put the assertion that this was a good idea to rest, okay?
No surprise.
Romney didn’t say anything that will destroy him or cause a bump. At this point the Florida will be won by superior organization…..so Obama may win the state in the end by a slim margin.
@Jr:
Don’t underestimate GOP block-the-vote, election theft efforts.
It’s a good thing they kept their Platform under wraps or they would have lost ground.
Did you look at their raw numbers? I didn’t, although I contacted them and haven’t heard back, because they weren’t included in the breakdown they offer at their site.
What does jump out at one, though, is that Romney has 20% approval among FL blacks, because they’re not raaaaacist.
“The first post-convention poll out of Florida doesn’t indicate any real benefits for Mitt Romney in Sunshine State:
”
“So, let’s put the assertion that this was a good idea to rest, okay?”
I think you do your readers a disservice by not pointing out that PPP is a partisan polling outfit that polls for DailyKOS, SEUI and other far left entities. Moreover, what are the key metrics of the poll (Dems vs Reps, White versus NonWhite, Men versus Women), etc??. We all know certain demographics favor Obama, so it would be helpful if we knew how many women versus men they polled, Dems versus Repub, etc. We’re all grown ups; We can make our own assessments based on the demographics of the poll. Just tell us what they are, and we would be in a better position to judge your contention that there was “No Convention Bounce in FLA for Romney”.
Case in point: PPP just came out with a poll showing Obama & Romney tied in NC at 48 – 48. However, the Raleigh Observer came out with a more comprehensive poll showing Romney up versus Obama 47 – 43 based on a more credible sample. Upon scrutiny, it turns out PPP oversampled minorities, women and Dems in their latest NC poll, Yet OTB reports on their polls without the qualifier that they are DailyKOS’ poster that has funky demographics that favor Dems in many of their polls.
I would rather not take your word or PPP’s word regarding their latest FLA poll; Just tell me the demographics assumed in the poll, and I’ll make up my own mind.
@Dan Collins: No, because they understand his policies suck.
Worst Convention Speech Since Dole
A new Gallup poll finds just 38% rated Mitt Romney’s acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention as excellent or good — the lowest rating since Bob Dole’s GOP acceptance speech in 1996 — while 16% rated it as poor or terrible.
Gallup
I don’t think we’ll take either Florida or North Carolina. We don’t need them, they’d be nice, but I doubt we take them.
Better than polls, watch and see whether Mr. Obama ramps up ads in Florida or not. The campaigns know.
EddieInCA is actually EddieInFLA about seven months a year. I go back there in 10 days. I don’t think the rest of the country has any idea how badly Rick Scott, the governor of Florida, had sullied the already bad brand of the GOP in FLA. I think once the Obama campaign lets loose on the Ryan plan in FL with targeted ads, combined with Rick Scott’s policies and governing style to date, you’ll see a break with a key 3-4%, which will tilt it decisively towards Obama.
As of July 26th, Rick Scott had a 31% approval rating in Florida. It’s gotten so bad for him that he’s touting how good the economy is in Florida, which only helps Obama.
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-07-26/the-gops-rick-scott-problem
Interesting read… the nugget in it:
All this has helped make him the country’s least popular Republican governor, with a 31 percent approval rating, according to Public Policy Polling. “Obama’s more competitive in Florida right now than I would have expected,” says Tom Jensen, the firm’s director. “The damage Scott has done to the Republican brand is part of that.”
I think both Florida and North Carolina is doable. The widely detested Republican Governor Scott in Florida is a powerful running argument for the Democrats, and enough Yankees have emigrated to NC that I think the 2008 election isn’t a fluke. .
Here’s your problem: Rick Scott isn’t running for President, Obama is. Tell me: What is Obama’s approval rating in FLA by a reputable pollster (Not a DailyKOS pollster such as PPP)?? I bet it is barely above 40%, not that much better than Scott if you think about it. Let’s see what happens to Obama if he goes into election day in FLA with a 40% – 43% approval rating.
But here is what PPP is not telling you. They polled 2% more Democrats on this poll than the last one they did which had Obama +1 over Romney. Thus, if they used the same sample as last time, Romney would be ahead +1 over Obama. Sadly, PPP has had some disastrous surveys this year. Their reputation was shot down with the Wisconsin recall election and the Texas Senate primary when they were embarrassingly off.
dan:
Link:
That letter didn’t get written until Mitt was 31. What was he thinking prior to that time? Why should black people ignore this?
@Dan Collins: I just want to clarify that you’re saying with the straight face that the reason the presidential candidate of the Republican Party has 20% favorability ratings with Florida African-Americans is because African-Americans are racist.
@Smooth Jazz:
Wrong.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/approval_rating/president/fl/president_obama_job_approval_in_florida-1503.html
Obama 46.3 Approval Obama 48.9 Disapproval
Poll averages… Obama +1
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_romney_vs_obama-1883.html
One more thing about this.
dan:
There are many reasons for black people to not vote R, but I’m going to mention one that doesn’t get mentioned much. Rush Limbaugh, the man who once said “take that bone out of your nose and call me back,” was also described by Ronald Reagan himself as “the Number One voice for conservatism.”
I don’t think Team Romney is worried. Between now and the election Paul Ryan literally will murder so many Democrat seniors it’ll tip the balance in Romney’s favor.
On a serious note, the chances that PPP would find a bounce for Romney anywhere, much less in Fla. of all places, fell somewhere between Zogby and Datamar, if you catch my drift. Stated another way: check out the CNN/USAT/Gallup poll of Florida that was published the day before the election, in Nov. 2004. Compare with the actual result. PPP is more slanted in its methodology than CNN/USAT/Gallup. Extrapolate.
PPP does slant Dem, but the fact remains that some voters are both disapproving of Obama’s record, and supporting him against Romney.
Florida’s a toss-up, but it’s crucial only in a negative sense: if Romney can’t win FL, he can’t win, period. Whereas the Dems have several routes to 270 without FL.