Obama 317, McCain 194

If the election were held today, Barack Obama would cruise to victory with 317 Electoral Votes to John McCain’s 194, according to projections tabulated by Electoral-Vote.com. Florida, with its 27 electors, is too close to call. Again.

Electoral Map Obama 317 McCain 194 (21 June 2008)

Compared to 2004, Obama would pick up Colorado, Iowa, Missouri, New Mexico, Ohio, and Virginia while McCain would pick up no states that George W. Bush didn’t carry. Further, McCain is barely leading in North Carolina, Georgia, and Nevada, all of which Bush won.

Then again, on this day in 2004, John Kerry was leading President Bush 285 to 249 and had slight leads in both Florida and Ohio. As you may recall, it didn’t turn out that way.

FILED UNDER: Campaign 2008, Public Opinion Polls, , , , ,
James Joyner
About James Joyner
James Joyner is a Security Studies professor at Marine Corps University's Command and Staff College and a nonresident senior fellow at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm vet. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.

Comments

  1. Jamie says:

    still looks more or less like the usual red state/blue state divide with one of two exceptions.

  2. Derrick says:

    I know people are roasting Obama for his campaign finance reversal, and maybe deservingly so, but personally I believe that Kerry’s unwillingness to fight earlier against the swift-boating and flip-flopping charges and with more resources were the turning points in the election. I think that Obama has already shown that he won’t allow himself to be defined and he will have the money to do it. I don’t think that he’ll win in such a landslide, but the fundamentals are just slanted to much in his favor.

  3. Bithead says:

    It’s clear to me that the relative silence of John McCain these last several months as reflected in these numbers. However, as has been demonstrated in elections past, and the trick here is to peak at the right time.

    The huge amount of fundraising going on within the Republican Party just now, (We mentioned in another thread yesterday) is going to help McCain along.

    However, fundraising alone, does not a successful campaign make. THere needs to be an issue…. and the biggest issue facing families just now, indeed facing us all, and that has dropped into John McCain’s lap, is the entire argument surrounding energy, specifically oil, and the price at the pump. McCain has shown an ability to react to reality in a way that Obama has shown an inability in that area. I think to his detriment, McCain is still sending mixed messages on that front, vis-à-vis ANWR, but on the whole McCain owns that issue. Obama and the Democrat party find themselves on the wrong side of that issue. If they make any reactive move to at all, anything they do will now be seen as “me, too”. The effect of this issue cannot be overstated; even 64% of Democrats according to recent polls want more domestic drilling.

    In the end, Americans are going to vote their wallets. Even the poor, who are particularly hard hit by the current high prices of oil caused by the mismanagement of our energy resources in the name of ‘the environment’. Come election time, people will remember who was responsible with their micro-mis-mangement for ruining a summer vacation, and they will remember come November who it was who doubled the price of heating oil, far more easily than they will remember who it was who saved the snail darter.

    All of this places Obama in some very serious trouble, this summer.

  4. Zelsdorf Ragshaft III says:

    Obama has defined himself. His association of 20 years with Wright, friendship with Ayers and Dhorn, business dealings with Rezko, the renigging on pledge to take public financing as well as statement he would debate foreign policy with McCain anytime and anywhere and his Obama seal for America. Your guy is a Muslim, by Muslim law and he is a liar.

  5. anjin-san says:

    John Kerry was leading President Bush 285 to 249 and had slight leads in both Florida and Ohio. As you may recall, it didn’t turn out that way.

    Well, Bush was a sitting president, and Kerry sat there with a blank look on his face while Rove slapped him around. Ain’t gonna happen this time.

    In the end, Americans are going to vote their wallets.

    True. 8 years of a GOP White House and 6 years of total control of the government have left us in bad shape economically. People are not happy, and the GOP will be carrying Bush’s water for years to come.

    Oh yea, and a special thanks to McCain for putting FL back in play with his drilling talk.

  6. DL says:

    Maybe if McCain beats up on more on what’s left of his conservative base, his numbers will surpass Obama’s. A few more secret La Raza type meetings ought to do it.

  7. Bithead says:

    True. 8 years of a GOP White House and 6 years of total control of the government have left us in bad shape economically.

    Uh… nooo… First of all, a two or three vote margin doesn’t constitute total control, given RINOS. Also, let’s remember the situation over time:
    When the Republicans got pushed out because of the nonsense being spread by the Democrats, we were in the midst of slight economic boom, gas was slightly more than $2 per gallon, food costs were low and supplies were plentiful, the housing market was booming. Since then, our food and fuel are both double the price and in shortages, taxes are up,, housing is tight, as is credit.

    Oh… and the Demorats were proven wrong on thew ar, aswell, as we pile up successes in Iraq.

    Any further questions?

  8. anjin-san says:

    gas was slightly more than $2 per gallon

    Interesting. You have been arguing in here in thread after thread that high gas prices are the result of the restrictive drilling policies dictated by environmentalists. These policies go back decades. Now, suddenly, high gas prices are the result of Democrats controlling congress for a brief time.

    Dude, you can’t even keep your story straight.

    Housing boom? More like a house of cards. Ease regulation on lending industry. Suddenly, they will loan half a million dollars to a janitor who says he makes 100k a year. “We don’t need to verify your income sir, just sign and we will cut you a check”. Yes indeed, capitalism at its finest. Can’t imagine how the housing market crashed. Bit, can you direct us to the specific pieces of Democratic legislation that ended the housing bubble? Or did Nancy Pelosi just wave her magic wand?

    While I am no huge fan of the Democrats in congress, what we are doing now is crawling from the wreckage of the Bush era.

    Any further questions?

    Are you really a rube, or do you just play one on a blog?

  9. Bithead says:

    Interesting. You have been arguing in here in thread after thread that high gas prices are the result of the restrictive drilling policies dictated by environmentalists. These policies go back decades. Now, suddenly, high gas prices are the result of Democrats controlling congress for a brief time.

    60 years, is a short time?

    Further, and as I’ve said on other occasions, a two vote margin, given RINOS doesn’t constitute control.

    Housing boom? More like a house of cards. Ease regulation on lending industry.

    Actually, the problem was the result of increased regulation on housing lending. IN their effort to create opportunities and not appear like the whole thingw as race based, the government more or less directly lenders to offer loans to people who simply were not qualified for such loans.

    Even absent such loans, however, there was a small housing boom.

    But whose bellyaching about racial discrimination’ was it, do you suppose, which caused the government to so direct the industry? (Hint; I worked in a Heloc for about 10 years.)

    You have crashed; try again.

  10. anjin-san says:

    Let me direct you to your own comment:

    When the Republicans got pushed out because of the nonsense being spread by the Democrats, we were in the midst of slight economic boom, gas was slightly more than $2 per gallon

    so you said the increase in gas costs were the fault of the current congress. Then about 2 seconds later, you changed your story.

    60 years, is a short time?

    It is easy to see why you continually need to back away from your own arguments, but that does not make it any less lame…

  11. Anderson says:

    Bithead is recycling Hugh Hewitt’s heartfelt recitation of McCain’s talking points.

    Back in reality, however, we know that even a temporary spike in the oil supply is a temporary fix that won’t answer the question where the oil’s going to come from for the next 10 years, let alone in our children’s lifetimes.

    The solution to a drug addiction is not “more drugs!” It’s getting off the drugs.

  12. Bithead says:

    so you said the increase in gas costs were the fault of the current congress.

    No, didn’t say ‘current congress”, I said Democrats.

  13. anjin-san says:

    When the Republicans got pushed out because of the nonsense being spread by the Democrats, we were in the midst of slight economic boom, gas was slightly more than $2 per gallon

    In other words, all was well until Democrats took control of THIS congress…

    Don’t run from your own arguments. Its embarrassing…

  14. Rick DeMent says:

    and let’s remember that in adjusted for inflation terms, the price of gas is still not at historical highs. Gas would have to be at close to 9$ per gallon to mach the $3.39 per gallon average of March 1981 or a $6.00 a gallon to be in the 2.50+ from 1979 till 85 or 86.

    And let’s say we did start drilling ANWR when the discovery was made and that oil was coming on line right now. All the oil ministers would have to to it twril back the taps ever so slightly and let us burn our remaining big strikes (relatively speaking) and presto they gain even more power and influence then they have now.

    It seems that everything the GOP does as far as energy goes has only one effect, to give pricing power and influence to our sworn enemies. Heckofa job.

  15. Eric says:

    Uh… nooo… First of all, a two or three vote margin doesn’t constitute total control, given RINOS.

    Amazing. Republicans controlling all three branches of government from 2002-2006 doesn’t constitute total control in Bithead’s world. Yet, the Democrats, who have an even slimmer majority in the Senate, who don’t control the Presidency, and who seem to vote like Republicans half the time, are somehow totally responsible for the demise of Western Civilization as we know it.

    Tell me, Bithead, will you conservatives ever take responsiblity for your actions and their results–you know, the “personal responsibility” stuff you guys like to talk about all the time–or would you prefer to live in your fantasy world where everything is a conspiracy against you and nothing is your fault? Not high gas prices; not a bottomed-out housing market; not America’s low regard in the eyes of the world; not the transfer of wealth from the middle class to the wealthy; not illegal wiretapping; not torture. Nothing?

    Wait, I already know what your answer to all our problems is going to be: we need to drill in ANWR and off the coasts, right?

  16. Lawrence says:

    “Further, McCain is barely leading in North Carolina, Georgia, and Nevada, all of which Bush won.”

    You forgot Alaska, McCain is BARELY holding on to Alaska. Don’t underestimate Obama. I think he’s going to end up taking Mccains goodies from under his nose.(Georgia, Montana, North Carolina, Nevada, Alaska, maybe even North Dakota)

  17. anjin-san says:

    It will be interesting to see how McCain does on the campaign trail. So far, it has not been very impressive…

  18. Dan says:

    At this time between Kerry & Bush, the only reason Kerry was ahead was because of the backlash from the “Fahrenheit 9/11” movie. Other than that, Kerry really never had a shot. Did anyone ever think he was going to win WV? Please. Thanks to GW Bush NC, AK, ND, MT, CO, NM, IA & IN will go to the Democrats this fall. Also, VA is now a microcosm of PA, gonna lean democratic for years to come. John Kerry left the ’04 election with more than $10 million left in the bank, and only campaigned in states the polls said were in play. Mr. Obama will be the next POTUS b/c he’s going to outspend, outcampaign and is just more qualified to be President. John McCain will say anything to be President.

    “In 2004 my Republican friends said they would not vote for a Senator who was a Flip-Flopping War Veteran who has a rich wife & who will say anything to get elected. I hope I can take them at their word in 2008.”

  19. Christopher Wallace says:

    No one can stop the historical event that is unfolding before our eyes. Reparations for Slavery are coming and Obama is the messenger. He will put an end to racial majority dictatorship.

  20. lunacy says:

    I’ve had a few friends, even Republicans, who said, -In a way I hope Obama wins just to put this racial crap to be.-

    Trouble is, it won’t be put to bed even then. In fact, I fear it will get worse. And Christopher Wallace makes my point.

    There is no racial tyranny. And I don’t owe any body any form of reparations.

    And for the record, he’s only 1/2 black. The half that raised and cared for him was white.

    Stop it already.

  21. anjin-san says:

    Ah, the new line from the trolls, Obama = reparations. Wow. the desperation is palpable…

  22. Bithead says:

    In other words, all was well until Democrats took control of THIS congress…

    With the kind of logical leaps you’re making, you should be wearing a parachute at all times. No, this kind of nonsense was long in coming, and is largely the same situation we found ourselves in under Carter.LAck of drilling here, lack of refining capacity a Democrat dominated Congress giddy with it’s own regulatory power…

    ANd sadly we didn’t move awy far enough from that situation, for lack of political will.

    Amazing. Republicans controlling all three branches of government from 2002-2006 doesn’t constitute total control in Bithead’s world.

    Where, apparently, you’re getting confused is the concept that Republican conservative. McCain, for example.

    Ah, the new line from the trolls, Obama = reparations. Wow. the desperation is palpable…

    Hmmm…

    Prior to his election to the U.S. Senate in 2004 Obama opposed reparations for slavery. After his election, Obama subtly changed his view, stating he was against “just signing over checks to African-Americans,” leaving open the possibility of other forms of reparations would be acceptable to him (Chicago Tribune 11/14/2004).

    Second, whom does Barry O “hang” with? Well, Obama hangs with the reparations crowd. Now guilt by association is certainly unfair. But if you hang with the reparations crowd, they must see something in you they like. Indeed they do. U. S. Representative John Conyers, Chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, is reportedly waiting for Obama to be elected so Conyers can rush a reparations law through Congress. (The Hill, 3/13/ 2007) Hmmm. Does Conyers know something we don’t?

    Finally, the most telling indication that Obama has a secret addiction to reparations is reflected in those who support him and those whom he supports: the most notorious race-baiter on the Chicago City Council, Alderwoman Dorothy Tillman.

    Haven’t heard of Dorothy Tillman? You better learn about Obama’s #1 supporter. And fast. You really should know who she is. Tillman has almost single-handedly made a joke of the City of Chicago in the public finance industry over her preoccupation with slavery and reparations.

    Tillman supports Obama and Obama supports Tillman

    .

    Here’s a vid of Obama suggesting that reparations take the form of education funding for blacks.

    Here’s the text:

    “I think the reparation we need right here in South Carolina is investment, for example in our schools. I did a town hall meeting in Florence, South Carolina, in an area called the corridor of shame. They’ve got buildings that students are trying to learn in that were built right after the Civil War. And we’ve got teachers who are not trained to teach the subjects they’re teaching and high dropout rates. We’ve got to understand that there are corridors of shame all across the country. And if we make the investments and understand that those are our children, that’s the kind of reparation that are really going to make a difference in America right now.”

    So, he’s for it, he just doesn’t want to CALL it that.

    Desperate?
    Hmmm. I’m not so sure. Sounds like they’ve got a firm grip on reality, where this huckster, Obama is concerned.

  23. Bithead says:

    Back in reality, however, we know that even a temporary spike in the oil supply is a temporary fix that won’t answer the question where the oil’s going to come from for the next 10 years, let alone in our children’s lifetime

    First off, I seldom read Hewitt, truth to tell, though i suppose I should be reading him more if his thinking parallels mine so well. Second, we have well over a century of oil left even absent any new finds.

  24. Derrick says:

    First off, I seldom read Hewitt, truth to tell, though i suppose I should be reading him more if his thinking parallels mine so well.

    Bithead, let me just say as someone who has unfortunately read a few Hewitt postings, you and Hewitt might have a beautiful future together.

  25. anjin-san says:

    Tillman supports Obama and Obama supports Tillman

    Well, politics makes for strange bedfellows. Bush holds hands with the Ambassador from Saudi Arabia. You know, Saudi Arabia, the country that brought us 9/11…

  26. anjin-san says:

    Bit,

    So Obama calling for schools for black kids that are not about to have the roof fall in is a bad thing? That’s your “reparations” proof Bubba? LOL, like I said you can smell the desperation.

    I am afraid I am going to have to hand off responding to your nonsense to some of the other rational beings out there for a few days, right now I can’t help thinking about the old line about trying to teach a pig to sing…

  27. anjin-san says:

    Actually the pig analogy is a bad one. Pigs are intelligent little guys, and they are easy to like when you spend some time around them…

  28. Thomas Jackson says:

    What a joke. I wonder what the record of these folk on the 1980 and 1984 elections or even 1994. Wanna bet they were way off.

    Virginia going to Obama, yeah when Massachusetts goes Republican. Even Obama has written off Ohio. All I can say is anyone who believes these results may be interested in some beach front property I have in Utah, and my magic solar power device.

  29. Bithead says:

    So Obama calling for schools for black kids that are not about to have the roof fall in is a bad thing? That’s your “reparations” proof Bubba? LOL, like I said you can smell the desperation.

    Of itself, of course not. But it’s counched in terms of reparations. Also, let’s recall, please that the places he’s talking about spend more per student than a lot of suburban districts do.

    I am afraid I am going to have to hand off responding to your nonsense to some of the other rational beings out there for a few days, right now I can’t help thinking about the old line about trying to teach a pig to sing..

    Yeah, well, when you get to rationality and intellectual honesty, let us know. Thusfar you’ve shown us sings of neither.

    Saudi Arabia, the country that brought us 9/11…

    Really? You have proof of state sponsorship of terrorism, there? I await your list with interest.

  30. James Joyner says:

    Virginia going to Obama, yeah when Massachusetts goes Republican. Even Obama has written off Ohio. All I can say is anyone who believes these results may be interested in some beach front property I have in Utah, and my magic solar power device.

    The Ohio Republican Party is in dreadful shape and barely went for Bush in 2004. Virginia has a Democratic governor, elected Democrat Jim Webb to the Senate in 2006, and is looking likely to replace retiring Republican John Warner with former Democratic Governor Mark Warner.

  31. sam says:

    Tell me, Bithead, will you conservatives ever take responsiblity for your actions and their results–you know, the “personal responsibility” stuff you guys like to talk about all the time–or would you prefer to live in your fantasy world where everything is a conspiracy against you and nothing is your fault?

    “No to the first. Yes to the second.”
    B. Banzai

  32. G.A.Phillips says:

    Actually the pig analogy is a bad one. Pigs are intelligent little guys, and they are easy to like when you spend some time around them…

    lol so are liberals, and yes I have pity for them who like pigs, are semi intelligent but love to roll around and live their lives covered in their own poop.

  33. Michael says:

    When the Republicans got pushed out because of the nonsense being spread by the Democrats, we were in the midst of slight economic boom, gas was slightly more than $2 per gallon, food costs were low and supplies were plentiful, the housing market was booming. Since then, our food and fuel are both double the price and in shortages, taxes are up,, housing is tight, as is credit.

    Yeah, and the Titanic was still floating when her Captain took the wheel, obviously it was all his fault.