Obama and McCain Tied among White Voters

Pew Survey, October 23-26

Pew Survey, October 23-26

A new Pew poll shows a continuing decline for John McCain:

Barack Obama leads John McCain by a 52% to 36% margin in Pew’s latest nationwide survey of 1,325 registered voters. This is the fourth consecutive survey that has found support for the Republican candidate edging down. In contrast, since early October weekly Pew surveys have shown about the same number of respondents saying they back Obama. When the sample is narrowed to those most likely to vote, Obama leads by 53% to 38%.

A breakdown of voting intentions by demographic groups shows that since mid- September, McCain’s support has declined significantly across most voting blocs. Currently, McCain holds a statistically significant advantage only among white evangelical Protestants (aside from Republicans). In addition, Obama runs nearly even with McCain in the so-called red states, all of which George W. Bush won in 2004.

Obama is leading with every education cohort, every income bracket, every top level religious cohort, and both sexes.  Particularly fascinating to me, given all the discussion of race in this contest, is that Obama is tied with McCain among whites, with each getting 44%, and Obama leading slightly (45-43) with white women.

Not surprising, but amusing:  Undecideds aren’t very interested.

Fewer than four-in-ten undecided voters (37%) say they are following news about the election very closely. By contrast, majorities of both Obama supporters (56%) and McCain supporters (55%) say they are tracking election news very closely.

We’d have guessed that without survey data, methinks.

FILED UNDER: Campaign 2008, Gender Issues, Public Opinion Polls, Race and Politics, US Politics, , ,
James Joyner
About James Joyner
James Joyner is a Security Studies professor at Marine Corps University's Command and Staff College and a nonresident senior fellow at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm vet. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.

Comments

  1. Will says:

    Interesting.

    In a polling cycle (check RCP) where all of the polls but one are between 2-8 points with most of the tracking polls pulling a little tighter, you nod in agreement with a single poll that says 15%? The smart money is on Obama, of course, but this poll is an outlier.

  2. tom p says:

    It’s “white guilt” making them do it.

  3. Michael says:

    It’s “white guilt” making them do it.

    I don’t feel guilty, does that make my vote for Obama racist?

  4. Jim Henley says:

    I’m being nice to all the black people I know so they won’t kill me after they take over next month!

  5. tom p says:

    Michael… look deep into your soul… your ancesters who came over in 1892 were very much responsible for slavery, and you feel very guilty for you part in the aparthied that was the 1950’s.

    I know I do… That’s why I am voting for Obama, and I already feel better about myself.

    And just in case it still hasn’t come thru: heavy sarcasm.

  6. tom p says:

    I’m being nice to all the black people I know so they won’t kill me after they take over next month!

    Good move Jim, I mean, we all know how they are…

  7. Floyd says:

    “DEWEY WINS BY A LANDSLIDE!”

  8. Jim Henley says:

    Oh Floyd. That trick never works.

  9. Anderson says:

    I’m afraid I can’t take the Pew numbers very seriously myself.

    Seems fair to say that Obama is doing well with whites *for a Democrat*, but I doubt he’s even.

  10. Floyd says:

    What trick? That was a commentary on all the chicken counting going on here.[lol]

    Actually I hold out little hope for an Obama Loss.
    I have already printed my new bumper sticker…
    OBAMA LIED-AMERICA DIED!

  11. Davebo says:

    I have already printed my new bumper sticker…
    OBAMA LIED-AMERICA DIED!

    Why waste your time on home printed bumper stickers when you can build pipe bombs?

    Seriously, it’s not the ignorance that pisses me off, it’s the laziness.

  12. G.A.Phillips says:

    “It’s “white guilt” making them do it.”

    More likely it’s their unions making them do it.

  13. Jim Henley says:

    Indeed, GA! The all-powerful unions controlling a full – what is it, six percent of the workforce now?

  14. tom p says:

    More likely it’s their unions making them do it.

    Yeah, my business rep is going to be in the booth with me and if I don’t pull the lever for Obama, he’s going to cut off my health benefts…

    But then again, that’s what McCain wants to do, so I guess I might as well vote Obama anyway.

  15. G.A.Phillips says:

    Indeed, GA! The all-powerful unions controlling a full – what is it, six percent of the workforce now?

    ok ok it’s Nancy the Lichqueens empty eye sockets hypnotizing them.

  16. G.A.Phillips says:
  17. Jim Henley says:

    12%. Thanks for the pointer. IOW, a very small part of the voting population.

  18. tom p says:

    ok ok it’s Nancy the Lichqueens empty eye sockets hypnotizing them.

    giggle…

    good one GA.

  19. Floyd says:

    “”Why waste your time on home printed bumper stickers when you can build pipe bombs?””
    “””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””

    Because, the sticker is Free Speech and a reference to the destruction of America’s foundation documents and the institution of an Anti-American judiciary, and executive branch.

    Unlike you,I would not think of murder to accomplish political goals.