Obama is Toast, Pollsters all Liars
Sean Malstrom, an analyst with a background in both politics and electronic games of whom I’d never heard until today, is getting quite a bit of linkage to a post debunking the entire political analysis game and explaining why Obama is Toast.
The essay in question is voluminous, taking many twists and turns that defy excerpting. A small taste:
With polling, the collective delusion is the belief that the product of polling is the data. Remember, polls are a product that is sold like any other product. That stupid little chart that appears in the corner of every USA Today was not made for the purpose of ‘research’ and ‘data’. It was made just to show a stupid little graph on the paper because USA Today knows that little graphs and charts ‘sell’ the paper more. Just because information is displayed in a chart or a graph does not make it ‘scientific’ or a real ‘analysis’. But the product was to make the reader FEEL like it was and to sell more papers. The product of polls can and often are the readers. This became much more popular ever since polls became ‘news items’ themselves (before, polls were only supplements to news stories).
Let’s just say Malstrom is either a visionary genius or a leading candidate for craziest sumbitch on these here Internets. I’ve got a strong hunch on that score but since it’s based mostly on polling data and actual acquaintances with pollsters and political analysts — and thus circular enough to make your head spin — I’ll join Moe Lane in withholding final judgment until the election returns come in.