Obama’s Convention Bounce
Team Obama is shrewdly lowering expectations, saying they may well not get any bounce at all from their convention.
That, of course, would be a first. Yesterday, when Gallup’s poll showed a 3 point uptick in their rolling average, I said that it could either be an actual bounce or random fluctuation caused by sampling error. Now, though, we’re starting to see the beginnings of a trend: Obama’s +4 (up 4 points) in Rasmussen and +6 (up 3 points) in Gallup, the only two national polls released since the convention started.
Here’s what the RealClearPolitics rolling average of polls looks like:
So, Obama’s up a little and McCain’s down a little. Since the new polls don’t include reaction to last night’s speech, which is what most casual observers in the process would have watched. We should expect, therefore, this trend to continue and the numbers to go up slightly.
My pre-convention SWAG was a bounce of 4-5 points. I’ll stick to that story for now.