Obama’s Convention Bounce

Team Obama is shrewdly lowering expectations, saying they may well not get any bounce at all from their convention.

That, of course, would be a first. Yesterday, when Gallup’s poll showed a 3 point uptick in their rolling average, I said that it could either be an actual bounce or random fluctuation caused by sampling error. Now, though, we’re starting to see the beginnings of a trend:  Obama’s +4 (up 4 points) in Rasmussen and +6 (up 3 points) in Gallup, the only two national polls released since the convention started.

Here’s what the RealClearPolitics rolling average of polls looks like:

So, Obama’s up a little and McCain’s down a little.  Since the new polls don’t include reaction to last night’s speech, which is what most casual observers in the process would have watched.  We should expect, therefore, this trend to continue and the numbers to go up slightly.

My pre-convention SWAG was a bounce of 4-5 points.  I’ll stick to that story for now.

FILED UNDER: Campaign 2008, Public Opinion Polls, US Politics, , , , , ,
James Joyner
About James Joyner
James Joyner is a Security Studies professor at Marine Corps University's Command and Staff College and a nonresident senior fellow at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm vet. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.

Comments

  1. Christopher says:

    I think that Sarah Palin is going to take away a lot of that bounce. Great move, John McCain!

    Maybe Obama will have a small town (state) insult to share and a “cling to God n guns” response.

  2. Zelsdorf Ragshaft III says:

    Further, it is hard to attack her suposed lack of experience when you have none. She has the only executive experience in the bunch. She governs a state whos neighbors are Russia and Canada. Obama’s neighbors are Rezko and Ayers.

  3. MM says:

    The massaging of expectations by both campaigns has begun to border on the absurd.

    Obama: We don’t expect any bounce.

    McCain: Obama will get a 15% point bounce at least!

    I look forward to next week when McCain just begs not be be driven from the twin cities with torches, and Obama tells us that the RNC will remind the nation of the Beatles’ appearance on Ed Sullivan.

    Further, it is hard to attack her suposed lack of experience when you have none. She has the only executive experience in the bunch. She governs a state whos neighbors are Russia and Canada. Obama’s neighbors are Rezko and Ayers

    But this hurts McCain’s most effective attack. Sure Obama will have a tough time assailing her lack of experience, but now McCain has to really be careful how he attacks Obama’s experience. Also, yes her neighbors are Russia and Canada, but keep in mind that there are no Canadian or Russian population centers anywhere near Alaska. It’s not like she’s staring the Russian Bear down nightly.

  4. Christopher says:

    MM,

    Would you rather have a pacifist President with no foreign policy experience on his first day,
    -OR-
    A VP w no experience while a very experienced president puts together a savvy foreign policy team and group of military advisors on his first day?

    Hmmm…hard choice…NOT

  5. Chris says:

    I’d rather have the candidate who realized Iraq would be a mess before we got there and, in making the first choice of putting together his team, chose someone who would help him govern rather than a nakedly political pick.

    With his health history its very possible that McCain won’t even finish one term, and can you honestly say you look forward to a former beauty queen calling the shots?

    You may not like Obama, but his judgment and character exceed McCain’s at every juncture of this campaign.

  6. Christopher says:

    Obama’s judgment and character exceed McCain’s at every juncture of this campaign? Wow, how in the world did you come up with that?

    Anyway, I guess you would put political harmony- by not going to Iraq-over our country’s security. Anyway you should remember (how conveniently libs forget), Democrats in the senate supported Bush in going to Iraq, as did many other democrats.

    Finally, you bet I would rather have a former beauty queen calling the shots over a liberal socialist pacifist like Obama. ANY day!

  7. Chris says:

    Yikes, that’s some wingnuttery you’ve got going on there!

    “Socialist pacifist”? Is Obama a pacifist b/c he knew Iraq would cost this country blood and treasure with nothing to show for it? I call it prescient and sound judgment. And is he socialist b/c he wants all Americans to have access to health insurance? I call it leadership, but that’s just me. And 18 million other Americans.

    And I can say Obama’s character has greatly exceeded McCain’s b/c only one candidate questioned the patriotism of the other, only one candidate has suggested that the issues of our time deserve thought and candor, and only one candidate has appealed the better nature of all Americans. That candidate, sir, is not John McCain.

  8. MM says:

    Would you rather have a pacifist President with no foreign policy experience on his first day,
    -OR-
    A VP w no experience while a very experienced president puts together a savvy foreign policy team and group of military advisors on his first day?

    I’ll take that false dichotomy with ice and a twist please!

  9. Christopher says:

    Chris,

    Gee, I suppose you hate and won’t vote for the ticket then since JOE BIDEN VOTED FOR THE WAR! lol you liberals crack me up!

    MM,

    What the heck? Dude, put down the bottle, put out the pipe, and talk sense!

  10. Michael says:

    Gee, I suppose you hate and won’t vote for the ticket then since JOE BIDEN VOTED FOR THE WAR! lol you liberals crack me up!

    Yes, but Biden knew what the war was going to be like, he fought the President about how it was being sold, and how they planned to manage it. He didn’t do it from fear of terrorists or WMDs, but from a well founded desire to seek Saddam removed from power. This is documented, enough I think, that Obama can still go after McCain’s judgment on the war.