Ohio, Texas Too Close to Call

According to Zogby both the the Ohio and Texas Democratic primaries (in Texas a primary/caucus) are too close to call:

UTICA, New York — The Democratic Party presidential primaries in Texas and Ohio remain too close to call between Hillary Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois, with momentum sloshing back and forth, a new Zogby International poll for Reuters/C-SPAN/Houston Chronicle two-day telephone tracking poll shows. As voters in these two big states prepare to wrap up their voting tomorrow, neither candidate has been able to break away from the other.

The two delegate-rich states with elections on Tuesday are among the last of the big states left in the primary election season, and both candidates stand to split the delegates under the party’s proportional delegate apportionment scheme.


In the Democratic race in Texas, Clinton and Obama saw stability set in among the key demographic groups. Obama leads among men, and the two are essentially tied among women. Clinton continues to enjoy a sizable lead among Hispanic voters, but Obama has made gains in the last day among white voters, where the two are now tied.

Obama continues to enjoy a two-to-one lead among voters under age 30, while Clinton leads 54% to 31% among voters age 65 and older. Obama continues to lead in the Dallas and Houston areas, while Clinton leads in more rural areas, including southern Texas. But in the key swing area of east Texas, Obama has surged into a tie with Clinton. While he trailed her 45% to 38% just a day ago, it was Obama 45%, Clinton 44% in that area at the end of yesterday’s polling, but the numbers in that region have been volatile.

In Ohio, there is very little movement as the Democratic candidates have solidified their support among those groups that have come to be familiar supporters of each. Obama leads Clinton among men by a 54% to 39% margin, while Clinton leads Obama among women by a 51% to 42% edge. The Obama increase in support among men is likely what has m

The RCP Average for Ohio predicts 42.9%/49.3% Obama/Clinton while the RCP Average for Texas is a whisker’s breadth with 46.5%/46.8% Obama/Clinton. Hillary Clinton leading by a mere .3%. As fellow OTB front page poster Alex Knapp has frequently pointed out, the idiosyncratic primary/caucus structure in Texas would seem to give something of an advantage to Obama. But it’s really too close to call.

I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that Sen. Hillary Clinton will eke out a narrow 5% victory in Ohio and an even narrower .1% victory in Texas. That’s not enough to regain the difference between Sens. Clinton and Obama in pledged delegates but it’s enough that I think that the Clinton campaign will declare her the “Comeback Kid”.

Heck, I think they’ll do that over anything other than a complete rout.

Perhaps my fellow OTB-ers can chime in with their own predictions for tomorrow’s primary/caucus contests.

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Dave Schuler
About Dave Schuler
Over the years Dave Schuler has worked as a martial arts instructor, a handyman, a musician, a cook, and a translator. He's owned his own company for the last thirty years and has a post-graduate degree in his field. He comes from a family of politicians, teachers, and vaudeville entertainers. All-in-all a pretty good preparation for blogging. He has contributed to OTB since November 2006 but mostly writes at his own blog, The Glittering Eye, which he started in March 2004.


  1. jabberwock says:

    Repeat after me…
    She’s unelectable…
    She’s unelectable….
    She’s unelectable.
    Billary’s supporters might just as well form a “McCain for President” movement.
    “There are none so blind as those who will not see.”
    She’s unelectable!!!!

  2. Richard Gardner says:

    After experiencing the dual caucus/primary system in Washington State (though the Dem side primary counted for zero, Reps 50-50ish), I’ll say the the caucus is a combination of:
    – Party Faithful (regulars)
    – The energetic/cult/dissatisfied

    Ron Raul got 21% of the caucus in WA! Obama had a landslide in the caucus, and barely won in the primary (that counted for zip). So I’d say the Texas Caucus will be Obama, and the Primary Clinton. Ohio is a toss-up.

  3. MichaelB says:

    Zogby? C’mon… if there’s one thing I know for sure about todays primaries it’s that whatever Zogby predicts is not going to happen.

  4. jacksmith says:


    If you think Barack Obama with little or no experience would be better than Hillary Clinton with 35 years experience.

    You Might Be An Idiot!

    If you think that Obama with no experience can fix an economy on the verge of collapse better than Hillary Clinton. Whose 😉 husband (Bill Clinton) led the greatest economic expansion, and prosperity in American history.

    You Might Be An Idiot!

    If you think that Obama with no experience fighting for universal health care can get it for you better than Hillary Clinton. Who anticipated this current health care crisis back in 1993, and fought a pitched battle against overwhelming odds to get universal health care for all the American people.

    You Might Be An Idiot!

    If you think that Obama with no experience can manage, and get us out of two wars better than Hillary Clinton. Whose 😉 husband (Bill Clinton) went to war only when he was convinced that he absolutely had to. Then completed the mission in record time against a nuclear power. AND DID NOT LOSE THE LIFE OF A SINGLE AMERICAN SOLDIER. NOT ONE!

    You Might Be An Idiot!

    If you think that Obama with no experience saving the environment is better than Hillary Clinton. Whose 😉 husband (Bill Clinton) left office with the greatest amount of environmental cleanup, and protections in American history.

    You Might Be An Idiot!

    If you think that Obama with little or no education experience is better than Hillary Clinton. Whose 😉 husband (Bill Clinton) made higher education affordable for every American. And created higher job demand and starting salary’s than they had ever been before or since.

    You Might Be An Idiot!

    If you think that Obama with no experience will be better than Hillary Clinton who spent 8 years at the right hand of President Bill Clinton. Who is already on record as one of the greatest Presidents in American history.

    You Might Be An Idiot!

    If you think that you can change the way Washington works with pretty speeches from Obama, rather than with the experience, and political expertise of two master politicians ON YOUR SIDE like Hillary and Bill Clinton..

    You Might Be An Idiot!

    If you think all those Republicans voting for Obama in the Democratic primaries, and caucuses are doing so because they think he is a stronger Democratic candidate than Hillary Clinton. 🙂

    Best regards