Ohio, Texas Too Close to Call
According to Zogby both the the Ohio and Texas Democratic primaries (in Texas a primary/caucus) are too close to call:
UTICA, New York — The Democratic Party presidential primaries in Texas and Ohio remain too close to call between Hillary Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois, with momentum sloshing back and forth, a new Zogby International poll for Reuters/C-SPAN/Houston Chronicle two-day telephone tracking poll shows. As voters in these two big states prepare to wrap up their voting tomorrow, neither candidate has been able to break away from the other.
The two delegate-rich states with elections on Tuesday are among the last of the big states left in the primary election season, and both candidates stand to split the delegates under the party’s proportional delegate apportionment scheme.
In the Democratic race in Texas, Clinton and Obama saw stability set in among the key demographic groups. Obama leads among men, and the two are essentially tied among women. Clinton continues to enjoy a sizable lead among Hispanic voters, but Obama has made gains in the last day among white voters, where the two are now tied.
Obama continues to enjoy a two-to-one lead among voters under age 30, while Clinton leads 54% to 31% among voters age 65 and older. Obama continues to lead in the Dallas and Houston areas, while Clinton leads in more rural areas, including southern Texas. But in the key swing area of east Texas, Obama has surged into a tie with Clinton. While he trailed her 45% to 38% just a day ago, it was Obama 45%, Clinton 44% in that area at the end of yesterday’s polling, but the numbers in that region have been volatile.
In Ohio, there is very little movement as the Democratic candidates have solidified their support among those groups that have come to be familiar supporters of each. Obama leads Clinton among men by a 54% to 39% margin, while Clinton leads Obama among women by a 51% to 42% edge. The Obama increase in support among men is likely what has m
The RCP Average for Ohio predicts 42.9%/49.3% Obama/Clinton while the RCP Average for Texas is a whisker’s breadth with 46.5%/46.8% Obama/Clinton. Hillary Clinton leading by a mere .3%. As fellow OTB front page poster Alex Knapp has frequently pointed out, the idiosyncratic primary/caucus structure in Texas would seem to give something of an advantage to Obama. But it’s really too close to call.
I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that Sen. Hillary Clinton will eke out a narrow 5% victory in Ohio and an even narrower .1% victory in Texas. That’s not enough to regain the difference between Sens. Clinton and Obama in pledged delegates but it’s enough that I think that the Clinton campaign will declare her the Comeback Kid.
Heck, I think they’ll do that over anything other than a complete rout.
Perhaps my fellow OTB-ers can chime in with their own predictions for tomorrow’s primary/caucus contests.