Pearl Harbor Day Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Wednesday, December 7, 2022
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65 comments
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
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So… Yesterday was not a good day for trump, at all.
Consider my Freude to be thoroughly schadened.
Meant to announce this yesterdayL Say hello to Izara Muse, who entered this world at 11:26 AM on December 5, 2022. Her big sister is quite enchanted by her.
@OzarkHillbilly: Add in the fact that the Jan 6 committee is going to make criminal referrals to the DOJ and that the Special Counsel Jake Smith has issued subpoenas for information on Trump election communications, it is indeed not a good day.
@OzarkHillbilly: Congrats to all!
Walk down memory lane to a conversation here at OTB from the beginning of the year:
HarvardLaw92
Unless something drastically changes, we will have a GOP controlled Senate after November, at a minimum. It’s looking more likely that they retake the House as well IMO.
Kylopod
I think you’ve got the relative probabilities backwards. It seems almost inevitable they’ll take the House, whereas Dems have at least a fighting chance of keeping the Senate, largely due to a favorable map.
HarvardLaw92
They only have to flip one seat to take control of the Senate. Every Dem toss-up seat is in an R+ electorate, while every Republican toss-up is in a R+ electorate and Dems don’t have Trump to run against in this cycle while Biden’s favorables are in the toilet. I think you’re being overly optimistic.
Kylopod
What I said was that Dems have a fighting chance of keeping the Senate. If you think that is overly optimistic, you’re implying the Dems don’t have a chance in the world, that the Senate’s gone and they might as well pack their bags. Yet your previous comment seemed to suggest you think the Dems just might have a chance of holding onto the House. All I can say is that this is a wildly unorthodox position; there isn’t a single prominent election analyst who agrees with you. The current consensus holds that the Dems are in trouble and could well lose both houses, but there isn’t a single analyst I’ve run across who thinks the Dems’ chances in the House are better than in the Senate.
HarvardLaw92
I believe the Dems will lose both houses, but the math is easier in the Senate because it only takes a net gain of one seat and the Dems are fighting an uphill battle there. Kelly likely loses to Brnovich. Warnock is a dead man walking – zero chance he gets elected for a full term. Maggie Hasan is a 50/50 shot, likewise Catherine Casto. The GOP will retain NC. PA will likely be Bartos v Fetterman, I think Bartos wins. Wisconsin – who knows? I think you’re putting far too much emphasis on states that Biden won in 2020 without considering his drawing power with Trump off of the table in 2022. As I said, his favorables are in the toilet, and we’re about to have a nice contraction in the capital markets along with rate hikes. It’s not exactly a good hand.
@OzarkHillbilly: Best to Izara, her parents, and her grandparents (especially the Ozarkiest of them…)
Ted Cruz is learning, in the hardest way possible, what his hateful agenda does to people. Will he choose family over party? I doubt it.
@Kylopod: You know, I think the key to the whole thing was this: “Dems don’t have Trump to run against in this cycle”. But in the event, they did. If Trump had stayed out of it the Repubs would have had the Senate and a significant majority in the house. But instead Trump kept the attention focused on him, handpicked a bunch of absolute loser candidates, and made all the other candidates and party officials debase themselves on a daily basis. To the non-trumpers out there the only thing worse than Trump’s whiny-loser bitchin’ was watching the weak-ass hangers on trying to placate him.
@Daryl and his brother Darryl:
?? Something happen to Cruz?
@Daryl and his brother Darryl: @MarkedMan:
No place for politics here, keep your humanity intact:
Ted Cruz’s daughter OK after HPD called to senator’s home, rep says
@Scott: This is very sad and concerning. Cruz is a POS, but this can affect any family. I agree that politics are out and basic human empathy is in.
@Scott: Having had a 14 yr old who threatened self harm, I can only feel for them. It was an absolutely terrifying thing to live thru and I can’t imagine how they must be feeling going thru the reality of it.
@OzarkHillbilly: Congrats, Gramps! In Re: ordering Cat’s books for the grandkids from yesterday, if you order from her website, she’ll autograph them and ship them to you.
http://paradisesheep.com/autographed-books.html
This item on the Supreme Court’s docket is worrying:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/12/06/north-carolina-scotus-elections-state-legislatures/
I’d like to say that the current Court is unlikely to take wacky legal theories seriously, especially when they threaten to disenfranchise thousands of voters, but…
Among the kibitzing about twitter, was significant poo-pooing with regard to Musk’s interest in turning twitter into an all-in-one ap, similar to WeChat. Yesterday I saw a link to a pay walled article that Microsoft is exploring something similar, in an attempt to break Google and Apple’s stranglehold on mobile search.
Somehow I believe that MS is far more likely to produce a workable product than the diminished development legions at twitter.
@Jax: Thanx! I hope she has 5 different books.
@Jax: She does! She does!
@MarkedMan:
I don’t see that as all that much unforeseeable. Overturning Roe v. Wade, OTOH …
@charon:
Yes. The above convo was from January, which was before even the Dobbs leak had dropped. Of course we knew SCOTUS was deciding multiple abortion cases. But not everyone anticipated they’d so abruptly and unceremoniously toss Roe/Casey in the trash, much less smack in the middle of an election season.
@Sleeping Dog:
It’s hard to tell, from the press coverage, how hard the layoffs and resignations have hit the core software development/maintenance and operations teams. While some employees have been vocal about the risk to keeping the lights on, let alone add new capabilities, it’s still hard to tell. If anyone has a link to some better information on that part of the Twitterpocalypse, I’d be grateful.
Still, who would want to work there?
There’s an interesting but ultimately frustrating article in The Hill vis-a-vis the increasing chill in China/Canada relations. Up to 2-3 years ago Canada was more or less on the French bandwagon, i.e. the US and Britain were making too big a deal about the Chinese threat, and other countries were better off sidestepping all that nonsense and negotiating one on one with China. Even France has moved on from that naive position, although they still seek to form some kind of alternative alliance with India and a few others. Canada, though, seems to be increasingly aligned with the US viewpoint.
The reason I find the article frustrating is that it describes everything in terms of what Canada and other Western countries can and should do, with no real comment on China’s agency in all this. For example, trying not to provoke China wrt to Taiwan and messaging through back channels was an abysmal failure, and that fault lies with China. They have spent the past few years increasing both their rhetoric and their military provocations in Taiwan, to the point where aggressive aircraft and ships could easily provoke an armed conflict with a Western power. The behind the scenes approach didn’t work and instead it appeared China was getting the message that we wouldn’t intervene, that our words were just bravado. Now that the Biden administration has made it abundantly clear we will respond militarily to an attack on Taiwan, the military provocations have been reduced. So to have the author paw the air and caution against “needlessly” entering another Cold War really gets us nowhere.
@Scott: Bullshit. Cruz and the rest of the GOP have played politics with the lives of LGBT people for years. I hope this young woman recovers and gets healthy. I hope her father is ok tormented until the day he goes to hell. But I doubt he will be.
Pres. Biden was in Arizona to announce the start of a new chip making plant by TSMC. They are planning to spend $40 billion. This reminds me of the $10 billion Foxconn plant in Wisconsin that genius businessman Trump and libertarian congressman Paul Ryan announced a few years ago. How did that Foxconn thing turn out? I am willing to predict that the Arizona chip plant will wind up working.
Holy shit.
North Carolina legislators want to give themselves absolute control over federal elections.
[emphasis added]
@Slugger:
There are two main differences (and they’re important ones) in the TSMC and Foxconn situations.
1) TSMC is Taiwanese, not Chinese. Taiwan is known for fair dealing, whereas Chinese businesses have a “who’s the better thief?” methodology.
2) Foxconn was a swindle from the start (I was in China when it was going on, and I just laughed at Walker for thinking he was getting anything but swindled). TSMC already does a lot of business with the US, and has a vested interest in getting a plant built here. It gets rid of tariff issues, shortens the supply lines immensely, and gives them the possibility to boost market share. A swindle will not only get them nothing, it will greatly impact their ability to do business with US companies.
@Slugger: Yes, the famed $10B Foxconn plant in Wisconsin. The one where the local libertarians took over municipal governance, ready to show those losers and idiots what people with an entrepreneurial spirit could accomplish, got completely suckered by Foxconn and evicted people from their homes to build millions of dollars of infrastructure, drove the municipality into crushing debt, and have… almost nothing to show for it but empty roads and buildings.
Yet another example of libertarians being given power, mucking everything up, and then walking away pretending it never happened. So, yes, I am constantly down on libertarians. Because they oh so richly deserve it.
@MarkedMan:
Beacon received.
I agree that libertarians richly deserve your scorn. Sometimes. And it seems like a stretch to pin the Foxconn mess on libertarians. Corporate welfare + eminent domain + Trump etc … doesn’t strike me as particularly libertarian. Indeed, the local Libertarian party railed against it. As did Reason Magazine and others.
And with that, I will retreat to my lair. Good day.
This raises several questions:
http://www.cnn.com/2022/12/07/politics/trump-lawyers-properties-search/index.html
@MarkedMan:
The plant came through an introduction via Donald Trump (R), and was pushed by Scott Walker (R). The deal was passed by a Republican-lead legislature. The campus was chosen by Walker, and pushed as a major source of (much-needed) jobs for the area.
Part of the deal involved “innovation centers” in Milwaukee (blue), Green Bay (purple), Madison (deep blue), as well as partnerships with the UW Madison, and UW Milwaukee (both very much on the left end of the spectrum).
This was not “local libertarians”.
@OzarkHillbilly: Congratulations to you and be best wishes to the new parents.
@Kylopod: To be fair about Warnock’s chances, no one knew that Georgia Republiqans would be choosing Hershel Walker to run.
@Mu Yixiao:
I think we make an error in normalizing these people. I suspect Walker knew it was a con, if he thought about it at all, and was fine with that as long as he could make a big announcement favorable to him.
@Kingdaddy: Yeah, me too, but I’m not gonna, either. 🙁
@Just nutha:
By Jan. 2022 when we had this convo, Walker had already been endorsed by Trump and was the front-runner for the nomination according to polls.
@Mimai:
I admit that it isn’t immediately apparent on why I attribute this to libertarians. It’s based on two in depth analyses of what went down, one in print and one podcast (struggling to remember where) that focused on the people involved. Basically there was a small group that grew frustrated with the caution of everyone else, orchestrated a takeover of governance, and then shut everyone else out and operated in secret. Early on, when they were still speaking out in public forums or doing interviews with media, well, let’s just say if you walk like libertarians and quack like libertarians you are essentially libertarians.
According to the WaPo more classified documents have been found in a storage unit owned by Trump.
Today is the third anniversary of the adoption of my very bad cat Porkchop. Truly a day that will live in infamy.
(It’s also the 21st anniversary of adopting a pair of elderly cats, so apparently I am very committed to this dumb joke having adopted on this day multiple times)
: @Mimai: If the pundits at Reason magazine were against it before it went south, and/or the local Libertarian Party, then I will humbly eat my crow. Any links?
@MarkedMan: (First, the above should have been in reply to Mu and not Mimai)
I’ll still eat my crow if need be, but a little googling showed the participation of the “leftist” UW Madison, and UW Milwaukee appears to be an agreement to hire students:
@daryl and his brother darryl:
They were shipped from a federal office building in D.C. to the private storage facility in Palm Beach.
@MarkedMan:
June 2018
October 2017
That’s the furthest back the search of articles goes. Before that, no support for Foxconn (and only one mention–in an article about Ann Coulter).
From the earliest articles I’ve seen, Reason has referred to it as a boondoggle, and corporate cronyism.
First it’s dinner with Nick Fuentes and Ye. Then Trump wants to cancel part of the Constitution. Now Mar-a-Lago is hosting events for QAnon and Pizzagate aficionados.
http://www.abcnews.go.com/US/trump-hosts-event-featuring-qanon-pizzagate-conspiracy-theorist/story?id=94701765
@MarkedMan:
Phil Anderson (L), 2018 candidate for governor: “Boondoggles like the 4-billion-dollar handout to FoxConn, who is already back-tracking on their promises of jobs, only distort the Wisconsin economy by favoring politically connected projects.”
@Kylopod: [Emily Littella voice] Hmmm… Oh well, never mind! 😉
@MarkedMan: Libertarians were actually fairly exercised about the Foxconn project, because it relied on the threat of eminent domain to secure the necessary property.
Meanwhile in Europe: Hungary vetoes Ukraine aid, EU seeks alternative solution
This is Orbans response to the EU commission recommending blocking post-pandemic recovery funds for Hungary due to failure to meet “rule of law” requirements.
I think Orban has miscalculated.
His former ally Poland is one of the most pro-Ukraine states in Europe.
And if he was hoping for a helping hand from Italy, he may be disappointed there, as well.
The Meloni government shows no signs of breaking with EU consensus on Ukraine policy:
Italy nationalizes the russian oil refinery in Sicily
Italy government renews Ukraine arms supply law for 2023
I’ve noted before: Americans often look at the turnover in Italian governments, and neglect the fact that in Italy, as in much of Europe, much of the machinery of the state functions semi-detached (or more) from the politicians in office with a great deal of continuity.
There is no equivalent general replacement of senior civil servants by a new government.
Back to Hungary, likely reason for Orban getting desperate:
Hungary desperately short of funds for cushioning energy prices within budget constraints and likely bond market reaction to higher deficits.
Shouldn’t have embezzled all the development funds then, you Fidesz folks.
Oops.
@CSK:
At some point, bottomless pit has no bottom simply doesn’t seem like news any more.
@Kathy:
Even Trump must realize that his rabid fan club alone is not sufficient to get him elected. It wasn’t in 2020. There are even fewer of them now.
It’s as if he’s deliberately trying to alienate people.
@Mu Yixiao: Well, the 2017 article was pretty clear and I’ll have to do my part. It’s just a short mention but it clearly states that the Foxconn deal is a boondoggle, at least in the sense that it uses taxpayer money to fund private businesses. I made assumptions and I was wrong to do so.
At the risk of more crow, I should repeat what I mentioned above: I don’t remember the local people as claiming to be libertarians but rather that in the podcast focussing in on the local people involved, they came across with the aggressive and contemptuous naivete I associate with all too many (but not all) libertarians I have met.
@Daryl and his brother Darryl:
@Scott:
As we keep telling people, we don’t want to turn your kids queer. We want your queer kids to live.
I’m thinking tangerine chicken with coconut rice.
I’ve yet to nail down the recipe. Thus far I’m thinking to marinate chicken breast pieces for a few hours in a mix of sherry and tangerine juice with tangerine zest, and a little grated ginger and garlic. For the stir fry bell pepper, celery, jicama, soybean sprouts, and onions. the sauce is tangerine juice and soy sauce. Probably 1/4 cup of cold water with two tsp. corn starch after it boils. I’m thinking to add some toasted sliced almond as well.
The rice is boiled in coconut milk, with shredded coconut once the liquid is almost gone.
@Kathy: I never seem to be able to get the flavor of any marinade to ever make it into the chicken itself. Any tips?
@MarkedMan:
A tikka marinade will do that: lemon juice, yogurt, cumin, garlic, ginger, smoked paprika, maybe some cayenne, other spices if you like.
A shawarma marinade is basically very similar, but with olive oil replacing the yogurt.
@MarkedMan:
I’m not sure any marinade ever makes it into anything. I think there’s some change in texture, and I’m sure some of the marinade makes it into the pan.
I wouldn’t be surprised if some of the things we do with food while cooking and/or preparing it has little or no effect. For instance, I really can’t tell any difference between pan roasted potatoes that were soaked in water vs those that weren’t.
Edited to add: for this recipe, I use bite size raw chicken pieces. I think the large surface area does help absorb something.
Sorry Beth, you are totally wrong. You guys are trying to indoctrinate kids into being gay. Fox News told me all about it along with the pink pistols that are carried so you can do forced indoctrination. (This remains one of my all time favorite Fox stories. I suspect someone somewhere has made a list of the weirdest Fox stories and I hope this is on the list.)
Steve
https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/intelligence-report/2007/rod-wheeler-claims-o’reilly-factor-lesbian-gangs-are-raping-young-girls
I was hasty in smearing libertarians with involvement in Foxconn. I assumed that Paul Ryan was a supporter and spoke for libertarians. Actually, he was just another politician. https://www.jsonline.com/story/money/business/2018/03/26/paul-ryan-decries-eminent-domain-seizing-private-property-economic-development-not-foxconn-homeowner/454233002/
The Arizona chip project outcome will be interesting.
@Kathy:
For the flavor to penetrate into the meat/veg, it needs a carrier. Salt is one; brining penetrates and carries other flavor compounds with it. Acid (vinegar, lemon juice, yogurt) also works. Alcohol also works, but some flavor compounds are alcohol-soluble and others aren’t. A mix seems to work best.
Tikka marinade, involving a paste of spices in plain yogurt, penetrates better than anything else I’ve tried, but it also has a strong impact on the texture of the meat that not everyone loves.
@Beth:
And we know that:
1) they don’t want any queer kids, or adults either, and don’t much care who gets hurt or how as they try to do away with us.
2) Since they do try to turn queer kids and adults “normal” (as if unusual were not normal, or abnormal were uniformly “bad”), then surely we must be doing the same.
arguments like yours work, often, on people possessed of empathy and compassion. not on those acting out of fear and superstition.
Things are bad in Peru
As best I can make out, the president attempted a self-coup, and was then arrested by police. The latter seems to be a counter-coup.
I was glad when Castillo beat Fujimori the younger. But by now it’s hard to tell the difference.
@Kathy: Dawg Damn, haven’t they been thru enough already?
@DrDaveT:
That might be hard because I cook with pretty much zero salt. I may try it anyway. On the other hand, the sherry does have alcohol.
On other things, at work someone came up with the idea of a secret exchange of mugs. Kind of like secret Santa, but limited to mugs.
On the first try, I pulled out my own name. I thought that vastly simplified things. I don’t like receiving gifts much*, and I don’t want a mug. Problem solved. But apparently this was too neat a solution.
So next I drew the one name in the whole department I’ve a real problem with. I’m thinking I should get a cheap but nice mug, break it, and then wrap it nicely in a pretty box. I like the idea, except that I don’t feel that level of pettiness.
*I’ve very particular and peculiar tastes, and even people who know me have little clue. Even when they get something really nice that seems like a slam dunk, like the Kindle reader I got from the company three years ago, they miss widely.
I’m just impossible to shop for.
@OzarkHillbilly:
No one asked for my opinion beforehand.
On better news today, Bill Cosby has been hit with five lawsuits.
And Holmes’ co-conspirator in fraud, Sunny Balwani, bested his estranged partner in crime qith longer setnence.
Of course, it remains to be seen how long either will live behind bars.
@Kathy:
Yeah, that’s harder. My sister-in-law has a medical condition that essentially requires a salt-free diet. I’ve used the yogurt technique on food for her, with pretty good results. You might try a mix of lemon or lime juice, plain yogurt, lots of powdered herbs and/or spices, and a little bit of oil. It should make a thick paste. Mix thoroughly, add cubed meat, then put it in an airtight container (e.g. ziploc bag or tupperware) in the fridge for a day or two. Broil or grill the cubed meat, optionally on skewers and/or with veggie chunks, brushing with oil if needed. If you have a sous vide setup, cook the meat to a safe temperature in its bag, then finish on grill or broiler to brown.
A more European version of the same thing would be oil, vinegar (red wine, sherry, or balsamic), a little mustard as emulsifier, a little white wine or sherry, herbs, some form of onion. Cut the meat across the grain before marinating, then grill it quickly when the time comes.
@OzarkHillbilly:
Personally, I suspect that his response is more along the lines of “how could she do this to me?
But I wish her the best of fortune going forward. Not her fault for having a reprehensible toad for a father.
Pearl Habor day
Pearl Harbor is a U.S. naval base near Honolulu, Hawaii, that was the scene of a devastating surprise attack by Japanese forces on December 7, 1941. Just before 8 a.m. on that Sunday morning, hundreds of Japanese fighter planes descended on the base, where they managed to destroy or damage nearly 20 American naval vessels, including eight battleships, and over 300 airplanes. More than 2,400 Americans died in the attack, including civilians, and another 1,000 people were wounded. The day after the assault, President Franklin D. Roosevelt asked Congress to declare war on Japan.
http://shorturl.at/pXYZ3