Steven Taylor looks at some elections over the past 20 years and notes that we should be very skeptical of early polls. I concur.
I think John Kerry, if he is indeed the nominee, will be a formidable opponent. Likewise, if John Edwards somehow gets it. But the polls showing that Kerry is ahead of President Bush right now mean nearly nothing. It’s almost always the case that the out-party primaries overshadow the incumbent president for a while. Were I forced to wager on the results in November, my money would still be on Bush. It’s not a lead-pipe cinch by any means, but I’d say the odds of re-election are 60-40.