Point to Ponder
Steven L. Taylor
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Thursday, May 31, 2007
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7 comments
Andrew Sullivan:
If the economy tanks this year, it could be a perfect storm for the Democrats. If Bush is at 28 percent after years of growth, can you imagine where he’d be in a recession?
It certainly would test the theoretical lower limit for presidential polls…
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
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That is to say, “A recession hits because of something GW Bush did to cause.” But if the Democrats raise taxes, how is his numbers supposed to go lower?
He doesn’t need the economy to tank to drop in the polls w/ Iraq getting worse and worse.
…except that, if you read first-hand accounts, it’s not, and some parts of Iraq have dramatically improved. Not that you could tell that from press reports, anyway.
…and the really fun part of the campaign would be the Dems telling us about how horrible the economy suddenly got, with most voters noticing that it took a nose dive only after we elected a majority of Democrats to Congress.
Sorry Cirby but i know too many folks there on the ground and on patrol in Baghdad and surrounding areas who say it is worse than they have ever seen it in prior deployments – i don’t buy into the news either from Fox or CNN – the parts of the country that are “better” don’t cover the most populated areas or the areas which must be secured for that country to ever get better.
Simple. You’re making the assumption that the American voter lays the blame for such happenings where it actually belongs. They almost never do. The one time in recent history they woke up in force, was when Jimmy Carter got handed his empty head.
With the White House saying yesterday that they want a permanent presence in Iraq–a la Korea–it surely is going to drag the Republicans down further and further.
28% is within the margin of error of the crazification factor, so Bush probably can go no lower.
(An internet classic, if you’ve never seen it.)