Poll: Sarah Palin Would Lose Alaska To Obama

While Sarah Palin plays her kabuki dance with the media over whether nor not she’s going to run for President, a new poll in her home state sends a strong, and surprising, message:

A new Hays Research poll shows Barack Obama would beat Sarah Palin among Alaskans if the presidential election was today.

The poll found 42 percent of Alaskan voters would pick or are learning toward Obama in a head to head race against Palin for the presidency, while 36 percent of the voters would choose or are leaning toward Palin over him.

Conservative Anchorage radio host Mike Porcaro paid for Hays Research to ask the question.

“Sarah Palin showcases her Alaska roots at every opportunity, but the surprising reality is she has become highly unpopular in her home state,” Porcaro said in an emailed statement.

“Whether it is the fact she left office after serving barely two years or that some Alaskans believe her tax policies have punished our vital oil and gas industry or the ‘rock star’ nature of her media coverage, these results show Sarah Palin would lose to Obama in Alaska, where voters overwhelmingly support conservative candidates,” Porcaro said.

Porcaro hosts an afternoon show on KENI AM and owns an Anchorage advertising agency.

Hays Research of Anchorage polled 500 Alaskans statewide who voted in at least two of the four statewide elections. The poll was on June 21st and June 22nd.

It asked:

“Although it is some time from now, thinking about the election for President of the United States next year, if the election were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Sarah Palin, for whom would you vote or are you undecided?”

Here’s the chart:
A few caveats:
  • It’s an early poll, and all the usual caveats about early polling apply
  • It’s a poll involving a candidate who hasn’t said she is running
  • As we learned during the Murkowski-Miller race, polling in a state like Alaska is inherently difficult and not always reliable.

That said, the fact that it’s even possible that Alaska, a state that has only gone Democratic once, during the 1964 LBJ landslide, could go for Barack Obama if the state’s former Governor is the Republican nominee says a heck of a lot about how her own former constituents feel about her.


FILED UNDER: 2012 Election, The Presidency, US Politics, , , , ,
Doug Mataconis
About Doug Mataconis
Doug Mataconis held a B.A. in Political Science from Rutgers University and J.D. from George Mason University School of Law. He joined the staff of OTB in May 2010 and contributed a staggering 16,483 posts before his retirement in January 2020. He passed far too young in July 2021.


  1. PJ says:

    It’s a stupid thing to poll, Palin is a nobody, it would have been a lot more interesting to poll Bachmann either in a primary setting or against Obama. (Now I know that there was a certain purpose for this poll.)

    Also, the number of people asked is too small, which gives it a 4.4% margin of error with the 95% certainty used, so you really can’t say that Obama is leading over Palin.
    There’s a 95% chance that the result is somewhere between an Obama 46.4-31.6 lead to a Palin 40.4-37.6 lead. And there’s a 5% chance that it’s actually something completely different.

    Add to that, they then they break it down into even smaller subgroups, with then even bigger margins of error.

  2. Tsar Nicholas says:

    A few months ago a buddy of mine asked me what I thought would happen if Palin ran and got the nomination and faced Obama next year. I replied that Obama in that event might win all 50 states. My buddy laughed. I wasn’t joking.

  3. PJ says:

    @John Malkovich:
    Give me a history of bad Hays Research polls and I would agree with you about them being a bad pollster.
    Arguing that they are a bad pollster based on the result of one poll, I’d say that says a lot more about you and Hot Air than the pollster in question. Perhaps you don’t understand polling, or you just want a way to discredit all their polls?

  4. mantis says:

    Oh good, Malkovich/RINO MORON/Lots-of-other-troll-pseudonyms has gone back to his old, enormously clever habit of repeating others’ comments with a few words swapped. Always a welcome and illuminating contribution to the discussion.

  5. Jay Tea says:

    I just read a poll that if the election were held today, and it was between Obama and Palin, Palin would get 54% of the votes in Illinois. Unfortunately for her, Obama would get 73%.


  6. John M says:
  7. Smooth Jazz says:

    “While Sarah Palin plays her kabuki dance with the media over whether nor not she’s going to run for President, a new poll in her home state sends a strong, and surprising, message:”

    I figured a Palin Hating, far left blooger like Doug M would play up this poll. He probably didn”t bother to check that this is a left wing pollster whose respondents are 90% Dems. Hays hates Palin more than you guys here at OTB, and that is saying a lot. To trust one of their polls is confirmation that you guys have an acute case of Palin Derangement Syndrome. Check out their recent history polling Repubs for Accuracy and you’ll see what I’m talking about.