Polls Show Sarkozy Likely Headed for Defeat

Via the BBC:  Sarkozy: France election too close to call.  Note that the headline says that Sarkozy thinks it is too close to call.  Indeed, he sounds like a politicians trying to convince himself that he is better off than he really is:

French President Nicolas Sarkozy believes Sunday’s presidential election run-off against Francois Hollande will be decided by the tightest margin.


The outgoing president said he thought that the "result is open: never will an election have been so undecided." He also pointed to the enormous crowd that attended his 1 May rally at the Trocadero near the Eiffel Tower.

However, the two most recent polls puts Hollande at 53.5% and Sarkozy at 46.5% (a range that comports with two other recent polls).

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Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter


  1. Election on Sunday.

    Next Eurozone crisis starts Monday

  2. Murray says:

    @Doug Mataconis:

    Once again missing a good opportunity to STFU.

  3. @Murray:

    I have to agree with him here. Hollande has been saying that he’s going to reopen negotiations on the European budget discipline agreement. Setting aside that’s likely going to spook bond investors, it also puts France and Germany on a collision course.

  4. michael reynolds says:

    Too close to call? It’s interesting how well self-serving political bullshit crosses the language barrier.

  5. James Joyner says:

    I thought Sarkozy had a chance to pull it out, despite the polls, after the first round. I think Le Pen’s decision to not only not endorse but to say Sarkozy shouldn’t continue as president pretty much ended any chances.

  6. Andre Kenji says:

    Since the Socialists took the Senate it was clear that Sarkozy was doomed. Lots of people even avented the idea of second round betwen Le Pen and Hollande.

  7. gVOR08 says:

    Paul Krugman pointed out that Sarkozy has a clear plan for the economy while Hollande doesn’t seem to. Dr. K sees that as cause to root for Hollande as the plan Sarkozy is so sure of is a dumb plan to keep doing what they’re doing and wait for the confidence fairy.

  8. al-Ameda says:

    It is my understanding from family and friends who live in France that it is too close to call, that other polling shows a 4% difference between Sarkozy and Hollande. People are just weary of Sarkozy. The hope is that the Le Pen people don’t have enough juice to be influential in the next government.

  9. Ben Wolf says:

    @Murray: And your justification for being an ass is . . . .?