Professorial Innumeracy

John Cole points out a particularly uninformed comment by Juan Cole:

AP reports that the one-day total for war-related violence in Iraq, including the police station bombing in Tikrit reported here yesterday morning, came to 30. That is about 11,000 persons a year if the rate were constant and extrapolated out.

John offers a couple of examples demonstrating the innumeracy of this logic, including:

Close to 3,000 people were killed on September 11th. That is over a million people a year if the rate remains constant and extrapolated out.


James Joyner
About James Joyner
James Joyner is Professor and Department Head of Security Studies at Marine Corps University's Command and Staff College and a nonresident senior fellow at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm vet. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.


  1. Barry says:

    Except that, last I heard, 9/11 was a rather singular incident. Car bombings, suicide bombings, roadside bombs, shootings, etc. are rather more common in Iraq.