Professorial Innumeracy

John Cole points out a particularly uninformed comment by Juan Cole:

AP reports that the one-day total for war-related violence in Iraq, including the police station bombing in Tikrit reported here yesterday morning, came to 30. That is about 11,000 persons a year if the rate were constant and extrapolated out.

John offers a couple of examples demonstrating the innumeracy of this logic, including:

Close to 3,000 people were killed on September 11th. That is over a million people a year if the rate remains constant and extrapolated out.


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James Joyner
About James Joyner
James Joyner is Professor and Department Head of Security Studies at Marine Corps University's Command and Staff College. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm veteran. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.


  1. Barry says:

    Except that, last I heard, 9/11 was a rather singular incident. Car bombings, suicide bombings, roadside bombs, shootings, etc. are rather more common in Iraq.