PROGNOSTICATIONS
Stephen Green looks back through his archives and discovers that he was off on most of his assessments of the Democratic nomination struggle. I’m too lazy to go though the vast OTB archives but it looks, at this stage at least, like my crystal ball was a bit cloudy, too. I always thought that the race was going to come down to electable candidates because of the dampening effects of the early Southern primaries. I figured Dean could do well in the “retail” contests in Iowa and New Hampshire–although perhaps losing both of them to favorite sons Gephardt and Kerry–by energizing the base. But I thought, and indeed continue to think, that he’s not going to be very appealing in South Carolina and the Super Tuesday states.
What I didn’t count on was the early implosion of the Lieberman, Kerry and Edwards campaigns and the amazing success Dean has had in fundraising. Despite all the candidates and the fact that none but Lieberman was a true national “name brand,” this thing could essentially be over with before the first ballot is cast in New Hampshire. With so many of the primaries stacked at the beginning of the year, fundraising is even more crucial than ever. Right now, the only candidates I can see able to sustain a serious race against Dean are Gephardt–who pretty much HAS to win Iowa or he moves up three shades on the Toast-O-Meter–and Wes Clark, who has a pretty good team thanks to the Clinton Machine. But I don’t know who Clark’s base is at this point and Lieberman’s presumed base, organized labor, seems to be split between him and Dean. So the key is to survive the early primaries and hope there’s an “anybody but Howard Dean” movement. Of course, as Dennis Miller is fond of saying, I could be wrong.
I agree with almost everything except Clark’s prospects. I’ve never taken him seriously and, no matter how good his staff might be, he will never make it through the primaries. Gephardt might be the one to watch as the Dems realize they need somebody from the South (Missouri is close enough).
I’m with you, James. This Democratic weeding out process has been much less eventful than I expected, mainly because these guys are idiots.
For almost two months now, Dean has been slowly building a nearly insurmountable money and endorsement lead. Instead of going after him and trying to distinguish themselves, they all get into these debates and other forums and say the same thing as everyone else. Clark, who started out as the one who was different from the rest, seems to have spent the past month fixing that, and now he, too, sounds just like one of the gang. Yeah, occasionally one of them will take a shot at Dean, but it always seems that they highlight how soft they are with lame and transparent attmepts to appear bold.
I guess it’s great for their party that they have everyone on the same page, but if you are trailing badly and you’ve got nothing unique to offer, why are you in the race? Answer: Because these guys are all about what they want, not what they have to offer America.
I always thought that Gephardt’s presumed base was organized labor, and it is split between him and Dean.
As far as Leiberman’s base, I never quite figured out who it was. I always took his support to be from democrats who only know him via his being the VP candidate in 2000.
Same here: I figured Liebby was the presumed frontrunner because he was the previous VP nominee and because he could be the “sensible moderate” in a field of more liberal candidates, who would split that bloc. Not so much, at least so far.
To me the biggest surprise is Al Sharpton.
Brian hit the highlight of the “meee tooo” crowd of dems.
The surprising thing to me is the number of right wingers that said if they were voting on debate performance alone (and not his ugly history) Sharpton would get the nod.
What’s the fun of that?
Why have a primary with CMB and Al Sharpton if they don’t make fools of themselves???
I even made popcorn to watch the theater.
Instead we right wingers are left to mock the Dems on regular policy issues. It passes the time and all, but it is not near as much fun.
Paul