Q3 GDP Growth
Steven L. Taylor
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Thursday, October 30, 2014
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16 comments
Via the BBC: US grows at annual rate of 3.5% in third quarter
The US economy grew at an annual rate of 3.5% in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department has said.
That is a slowdown from the 4.6% growth rate of the April-June quarter, but economists say that was a rebound from the first quarter, when the economy contracted due to severe weather.
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
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All Americans are anxiously awaiting global warming so that we can experience growth………
God forbid we have winter again.
In any event, personal consumption flagged and, as I warned the last time there was a thread on the subject (to great scorn), beware that business investment was simply temporary catch up, and it dutifully declined.
Interestingly, the preferred solution to the progressive threadsters, government spending, propped up the report, one assumes for military. Ironic.
This leaves us with only one more economic trick: the point of a frequent commenter, noted economist and children’s book author – if only we paid wages like In N Out all would be good with the world. So at least we still have that bullet in our holster………..
Republicans continue to be disappointed – positive growth, declining unemployment – it’s all so depressing. I’m sure they’re looking forward to controlling Congress and reversing the current economic policies that have resulted in steady economic and employment growth since the Great Recession of 2008-09.
@Guarneri:
Europe is heading into its third recession and the BRICs are in trouble. But Mr. Obama’s economy is still growing.
As his deficit drops.
As his healthcare costs drop.
As his gas prices drop.
As his unemployment rate drops.
As Obamacare performs well.
And as his ISIS strategy is clearly beginning to work.
But by all means, keep regurgitating your Romney talking points from two years ago.
You guys make a fundamental mistake. Given what I do for a living if for nothing other than naked self interest I’d be cheerleading a strong economy. Unfortunately, it simply isn’t so.
I sit on 5 boards today. I speak with small business owners all the time. It matters not what a bunch of Obama sycophants want to believe wrt the economy, but what they think. Obamacare is a financial burden. Debt has skyrocketed. Regulatory burdens create a heightened sense of risk. Inventory build has dominated GDP growth. Business investment has been nowhere. Wages are stagnant. The jobs numbers require more interpretation with respect to full vs part time and so called discouraged workers than cheerleaders are willing to admit.
You can talk amongst yourselves all you want. But given the eternal truth “it’s the economy, stupid,” you might want to ask yourselves why your view is so at odds with what is about to happen in an election, and Americans views on the economy.
Reynolds, are you not feeling “positively European” now? You can’t have it both ways.
If not for my concerns about my fellow Americans I’d implore you to keep your state of denial intact, for it bodes well for the oppositions political prospects. But it’s not about thumbs up and inability to recognize we made a failed hire for me. It’s about the real prospects of real people. I keep thinking you guys can be educated. Perhaps not.
@Guarneri:
That’s interesting, because federal debt is not skyrocketing, it has leveled off since we’ve emerged from the 2007-08 financial and economic catastrophe – the crisis that required a strong fiscal stimulus to keep us from plummeting into another Great Depression. It is also a fact that for over two decades the benefits of successive economic booms have largely accrued to those in income brackets well above those of middle class wage earners. The stagnation of wages is not a recent phenomena, it is one that has been statistically documented for decades.
Feel free however to blame Obama as you have,
@Guarneri:
Yes…we all know, Drew…you are the worlds greatest businessman.
But riddle me this Batman…you have been preaching imminent doom for years….this isn’t some new mantra you just came up with.
Yet the economy keeps chugging along and proving you wrong.
How is that possible…oh masterful businessman?
I’d love the recovery to be stronger…but strong growth is not possible while also slashing the Public Sector. Unfortunately increased debt due to hold-over Republican obligations are not stimulative.
Oy. Such childishness. No, I’m not the greatest businessman, just better than you guys. No, I haven’t been predicting imminent doom,, but nice straw man. And if chugging along as current is satisfactory to you, so be it, and vote accordingly. But its about to cost you guys a drubbing.
This is just an overview treatment of debt.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_the_United_States
Imagine normalized interest rates and Freddie and Fannie.
I prefer the FRED data and graphs.
@Guarneri:
A drubbing is as likely as your predictions of doom.
Your record sucks.
@Guarneri: As I noted on another post to one of your cousins, while I see and agree with your observation, your dog don’t hunt. As a consequence of your lack of a good coon hound (this is a metaphor, by the way) I am stuck with the siding with the guys like the children’s author who, while he is more optimistic about the future (undoubtedly due to his 1% status and the economic insulation there from), at least has a bleeping sense of somewhere to go from here.
You, on the other hand, can only whine and snark. Not helpful for the real problem that you do recognize.
For your reading pleasure……….From Goldman Jan Hatzius:
We start our Q4 GDP tracking estimate at +2.2%, eight-tenths below our prior standing forecast. The lower tracking estimate mainly reflects the larger-than-expected +0.7 percentage point contribution from defense spending to Q3 growth (which introduces risks for payback in Q4), the weaker-than-expected trajectory for consumer spending heading into the quarter apparent in today’s personal income and outlays report for September, and a slightly weaker assumption on net exports in light of the large net trade contribution in Q3, our global teams’ recent downgrades to rest-of-world growth forecasts and the recent appreciation of the US dollar.
@Guarneri:
Interesting to hear a Republican snarking about denial of reality, when so many GOP supporters were going on and on about “unskewing” polls so they could claim Romney was going to win. [not to mention other examples, which abound]
The the reality-based community, it was obvious Romney was the underdog and probably going to lose, which he did, exactly as the various models predicted. In that same community today, we know that the odds of the GOP taking the Senate are roughly 2 to 1 in favor. We know our side is going to lose seats and, most likely, control of the Senate.
Do you guys know that the map in 2016 greatly favors a Dem comeback? If that’s news to you, then you might just be living in a bubble.
Boards can be in bubbles. Given the culture of sucking up to the guys at the top (something humans have been doing for thousands of years, of course), it’s actually got to be hard to get unvarnished truth out in such surroundings. The Emperor has no clothes and all that.
You have this belief that because money is at stake, people have to act rationally and get at the reality of things. I think that’s a (mostly) mistaken belief. People with money can be just as delusional as anyone. They just have more influence.
Which regulatory burdens, specifically?
…
More generally: the economy is not doing well (only in comparison to Europe). There are a number of bad trends that date back decades and have been eating away at the middle class and the end result is that a squeezed middle class doesn’t have as much money to spend, resulting in demand shortfall, resulting in sluggish growth. Get more money into the hands of folks who are on the edge, and things might improve. But that either involves redistribution or it involves somehow restructuring the labor market such that labor has more power. In the era of globalization, I’m not sure that’s even possible.
Nice incoherent, disjointed mumbo-jumbo, Rob.
Well, that’s a brilliant argument you put forward there, Drew. I’m so crushed!
@Guarneri:
@Rob in CT:
I think we can adapt this to a screenplay.
I see Dennis Miller as Drew, and George Clooney as Rob.