Rasmussen: Cain #1, Perry #6 in Iowa Poll

Via Rasmussen:

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Iowa caucus-goers shows that Cain is in front with 28% followed by former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney at 21%. Congressman Ron Paul is a distant third at 10% followed by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 9%, Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann at 8%, and Texas Governor Rick Perry at 7%.

If these poll number hold going into the caucus, we are going to see a testing of the hypothesis that one has to have substantial organization on the ground to win the contest (since, at the moment, Cain appears to lack such an apparatus in Iowa).

FILED UNDER: Campaign 2012, Quick Takes, US Politics
Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter


  1. legion says:

    It appeared in the earlier debates that Perry was simply not prepared for the reality (and expectations) of being a presidential front-runner – he’s not very bright, but every once in a while a ray of light seems to seep through & remind him that he’s in way over his head.

    I wonder if Cain is self-aware to have moments like that…

  2. ponce says:

    With just a little over two months to go, it will be fun to see if Cain can win Iowa without a “real” campaign staff…rendering all the sleazoid Republican campaign advisers expendable.

    IIRC, candidates who fail to come in at least 3rd in either Iowa or New Hampshire are labeled “finished” by teh dreaded MSM and usually drop out of the race.

  3. Tlaloc says:

    no real staff vs no real competition. Cain might win that race. When it comes to states where romney is actually running I think things will be a lot dicier for the godfather.

  4. Terrye says:

    Eight whole days ago Romney was number one.

    I don’t think Cain is going to be able to sustain these numbers. His 999 plan is not going to be that popular in the long run. He also went on CNN and made some strange comments about abortion. He seemed to say it was a woman’s choice…but then again life began at conception and he was pro life.

    Cain is a nice guy with no political experience..and it is showing.

  5. Neil Hudelson says:


    Agreed. I think Cain’s poling is surprising, and good on him for bucking conventional wisdom. But those who think that this constitutes some sort of sea change are forgetting exactly what you pointed out: 8 days ago he was far behind in the polls, and in all likelyhood 8 days from now he will be again.

    And if I’m wrong, I’ll gladly eat my words, and once again say good on him.

  6. superdestroyer says:

    Who cares? None of the Republicans stand a chance of beating President Obama.

    Intead of the endless discussion of Rick Perry or Herman Cain, why not review the senate and house elections. The real question for the election is whether the Repubicans could win a majority in the Senate or if the Democrats can regain the majority in the House. Those elections will really affect policy and governance. What Cain or Perry are doing this week is irrelevant to policy or governance.